What's new
By:

Minute Distribution???

Joe Bagadonuts said:
I was thinking the same thing. [MENTION=4829]KqWIN[/MENTION], could you do another version with every minute for every position for the entire season listed? And if I'm being honest here, listing it by seconds (or at least in 15 second increments) would be a lot more accurate.

One last thing: despite my sarcasm I'm truly impressed. Teacher gave a huge assignment in the OP (I was thinking, "Holy crap, how am I ever going to get all this homework done") and the next thing I know you've gone way above and beyond the call. What I'm really saying is, I thought about giving this thing a go for a moment, but you've convinced me that my best role is to sit in the back row throwing spitballs at the back of your head instead. It's my way of saying thank you for all of the great work you're doing. That and the rep I will send as well.
Click to expand...
Great post joe. I agree, dude killed it
 
NAOS said:
Diaw is definitely still a baller. He's gonna get people easy buckets.
Click to expand...

Ya I love diaw passing ability and think he still has game..... I just think he is strictly a 4/5 and I think would rather have Gobert, favors, lyles, and JJ on the court than diaw 8 times out of 10.
 
Dr. Jones said:
It's a team not a science experiment.
Dammit.
Click to expand...

Point is it will work fine.(so long as we win) Assuming no injuries the average mins for those 10 players will be around 24. Rudy and Derrick should probably be kept under 30 mins anyway. I have no problem with Exum, Burks, Johnson, Diaw, and Lyles playing 20 or less. In all likelihood with injuries even minor ones it will be more anyway. How many players played 82 games last year? I don't think it will end up being a problem in reality. There may be some nights when guys(Burks in particular) are upset with mins but I think for the most part it will work itself out.
 
Lyles is going to have to do a much better job on the defensive end than he did during summer league, or he's not going to get the minutes.

I don't like any lineup with Diaw and Lyles on the court together...they're both weak rebounders. Withey played well last season when given minutes, really liked his defense but don't see how he's going to get any minutes.

Ingles should get a lot of Burks minutes early in the season. Neto and Bolomboy are both likely to get assigned to the D league. Mack is trade bait.

I could see Rudy's minutes dropping to around 28 and Favors sliding over to center more often.

Would like to see Hayward get no more than 34 minutes.

Lots of guys aren't going to see the minutes they'd like.
 
Catchall said:
** Quin is going to be tempted to play Hill/Hood/Hayward/Johnson together with Favors or Gobert at the 5. That's veteran leadership, spacing and shot creation all over the floor.
Click to expand...

I think that is a pretty solid lineup to close out games with Favors at the 5 instead of Gobert. All those games we lost by 5 points or less could easily be won with a closing lineup of Hill/Hood/Hayward/Johnson/Favors.
 
So... I was just evaluating minutes on my own when this thread pooped up (intentional typo!). Here are some data points from last year:

2015 minutes per game:

Hayward: 36
Favors: 32
Gobert: 32
Hood: 32
Mack: 31
Neto: 18
Lyles: 17
Jingles: 15
Withey: 13

Noobs or permanently injured last season:

Johnson: 34
B. Diaw: 18
Hill: 34
Exum: 18
Burks: 26

Minutes per game from players that are now gone Booker, C. Johnson, Trey Burks: 28

Total Minutes Available (5 positions, 48 minutes per spot): 240
Total Minutes from 2015/2016: 384!!!

I took injuries into play to eliminate the minutes that doubled. Example... Favors played 61 games so I multiplied his minutes by .75 to give him 75% of the minutes for adjusted minute totals. Alec Burks played 31 games so his 25 minutes calculates into just over 9 minutes per game...

Total Minutes adjusted for injuries INCLUDING new players: 319

So, let's assume that our starting 5 don't get injured at all and don't have a reduction in minutes in 2016/2017. Top 5: Hayward, Hood, Gobert, Favors, and Hill and that none of them sacrifice minutes. That means we have:

Total minutes for starters: 166
Total minutes for next 3 players (Joe Johnson, Burks, Exum, Diaw): 96
Combined: 262!

We already are 22 minutes past the available amount of minutes. Problem is, Mack, Withey, Jingles, Lyles, Neto, and Bolomboy haven't played a single minute!

So, Joe Johnson is probably playing 12 minutes less than normal (he is 36!).

We are winning most games by 20 point blowouts... probably... so the starters can all give up 4 minutes each. That's 20 minutes off. So, we are now at 230 minutes and 6 players still haven't seen the court!

But Exum is going to demand more minutes. Same with Lyles. Mack played 32 minutes per game and we have taken him down to 0!

Injuries are a reality and they will help boost the rest of the players chances. But even the excel spreadsheet attempt left 5 players without any minutes and reduced several players by 10 minutes each (Burks, Johnson) already.
 
In order to get the correct minutes distribution I should have used the convolution formula and then transformed it into pascal's triangle in order to be able to factor it using the neyman pearson lemma to get the data approximately normal so I can find the sufficient statistic and then communicate that statistic to David Locke so he can consult Kevin Pelton for the bayesian estimator and make sure that it is cauchy. If Pelton confirms I can use the poisson distribution to get an approximation for the taylor expansion of the transition matrix so I can use markov chains and use that to get the stationary probabilities of the matrix.
 
KqWIN said:
In order to get the correct minutes distribution I should have used the convolution formula and then transformed it into pascal's triangle in order to be able to factor it using the neyman pearson lemma to get the data approximately normal so I can find the sufficient statistic and then communicate that statistic to David Locke so he can consult Kevin Pelton for the bayesian estimator and make sure that it is cauchy. If Pelton confirms I can use the poisson distribution to get an approximation for the taylor expansion of the transition matrix so I can use markov chains and use that to get the stationary probabilities of the matrix.
Click to expand...
:^O
 
The Jazz Wonderbra said:
So... I was just evaluating minutes on my own when this thread pooped up (intentional typo!). Here are some data points from last year:

2015 minutes per game:

Hayward: 36
Favors: 32
Gobert: 32
Hood: 32
Mack: 31
Neto: 18
Lyles: 17
Jingles: 15
Withey: 13

Noobs or permanently injured last season:

Johnson: 34
B. Diaw: 18
Hill: 34
Exum: 18
Burks: 26
Click to expand...

Damn, seeing our roster like this for the first time is crazy. We are going to be SFG.
 
There's some really good stuff in here. The spreadsheets and comparisons to last years minutes are amazing. It is going to be one of the biggest stories of the season, how Quin handles the playing time. From what I've heard from him, I could see him looking solely at matchups and lineups. I wouldn't be surprised if the first half of the season we get a new lineup we have never seen before in a lot of games. As far as this exercise, I feel like it is so dependent on who we are playing that you can't really set a universal rotation. Some nights Rudy may play 20 minutes and some nights he may play 35.
 
If everyone is healthy, Ingles, Mack, Neto, Bolomboy and Withey(if he's the 15th player) are garbage time guys.

Quin mentioned in his interview that Hayward and Favors could both see 4th quarter rest if the subs are holding a good lead.

I also like the Favors, Johnson, Hayward, Hill and Hood lineup. I think we'll see a lot of it.

240 mins total
Favors 30, Gobert 28, Diaw 15, Lyles 23
Hill 24, Exum 24
Hayward 30, Hood 24, Johnson 22, Burks 20

For those who say 30 is not enough for Gotdon and Derrick, check out some SA regular season averages.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top