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Can you explain this from your high level perspective? I just cannot wrap my mind around the idea of anyone with even a cursory modern education not thinking intelligent life elsewhere is a guarantee. I understand that it's highly technical and all but if you could give the basics of the other side's argument I'd appreciate it.

I know you didn't ask me, but since I too am a science guy, I think I'll butt in.

Why would it be a guarantee? We don't have enough information to make that assessment. We only have evidence of life on Earth. The other planets in the solar system seem barren, but one can hope we'll find evidence of microbial life at one point. But so far, we only have Earth. Now on Earth, life seems to have only happened once. All of life on Earth descends from the same common ancestor. Why did life only evolve once? Either because those are the only viable self-replicating molecules able to sustain the level of complexity required for life, or that life evolved more than once but only a single branch won out.

In the case of the former, life would need very specific conditions to come into being and survive long enough for natural selection to take hold. If the latter is true, we would simply have no idea how common life is. We wouldn't have the data on the other possibilities. I personally think the first scenario is more likely. Assuming that it is, then life, at the bacterial level should exist elsewhere. We know that some aminoacids exist in nature. We found them on comets and in the dust of faraway nebulae. We also know that there are literally billions of Earth like planets in the galaxy, and that a portion of them is in the so-called Goldilocks Zone, with temperatures that allow for liquid water and complex chemistry to exist.

If I was a betting man, I would bet simple life exists in the galaxy. But it brings us to the next level; multicellular life. How easy is that? Single cell life existed on Earth for 2.5 BILLION years, before multicellular life decided to make an appearance, less than a billion years ago. Why did it so long? Would the process take less or more time elsewhere? If it's more, then we run the risk of expanding sun making temperature too hot for complexity (as will happen to our own solar system). Even if bacteria exists in the galaxy, who is to say bacterial planets survived in the right conditions long enough for more complex forms to emerge?

And it brings us to the last level; human intelligence. This also happened only once on Earth. In a billion years of animal life, a technological species evolved once. All of those extinction events and iteration produced a single human-level species. What are the chances of that happening? That's unknown.

It is important to keep in mind that only the galaxy is relevant, not the universe at large. Anything beyond the galaxy is too far for communication, or even detection. What are the chances another human-like creature evolved in the 200 billion or so stars in the galaxy? It is far from guaranteed.
 
Single cell life existed on Earth for 2.5 BILLION years, before multicellular life decided to make an appearance, less than a billion years ago. Why did it so long?

Thank you.



And it brings us to the last level; human intelligence. This also happened only once on Earth. In a billion years of animal life, a technological species evolved once. All of those extinction events and iteration produced a single human-level species. What are the chances of that happening? That's unknown.

I wonder the same thing myself. Convergence seems to stop at intelligence, which is counter intuitive to evolutionary theory. I expect Mermaids dammit!
 
Can you explain this from your high level perspective? I just cannot wrap my mind around the idea of anyone with even a cursory modern education not thinking intelligent life elsewhere is a guarantee. I understand that it's highly technical and all but if you could give the basics of the other side's argument I'd appreciate it.
What Siro said. You may also be interested in reading about the Drake Equation, which is fairly useless for numerical estimates but which might give you a sense of what might be required for intelligent life to exist elsewhere in the galaxy. https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
 
will be awkward when they spot us and start invading us lol

If one of them can shoot 3's, I say sign him/it!

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What Siro said. You may also be interested in reading about the Drake Equation, which is fairly useless for numerical estimates but which might give you a sense of what might be required for intelligent life to exist elsewhere in the galaxy. https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

Meh.

The Drake equation has proved controversial since several of its factors are currently unknown, and estimates of their values span a very wide range. This has led critics to label the equation a guesstimate, or even meaningless.
 
Humanity's advancing knowledge has changed society profoundly. The question of whether an event affected the mundane details of your life is hardly relevant to the significance of the event to the big picture.

The question was whether anyone would be able to talk about anything else, not what the overall significance would be. For the vast majority of humans on earth if the only impact any such discovery had was people reading about it on the Internet or hearing about it in TV it will have the same staying power as the latest celebrity divorce or maybe that if another shooting but that's about it.

Now the overall implications are way greater than that obviously. Although realistically if our first indications of life on other celestial bodies was a bacteria what impact would that really have on anyone or anything?

Now if that first indication were actual first contact that changes everything. I think in that regard the movie Contact is a pretty good indication of the global impact. But even then with nothing new after that initial contact it will have virtually no impact on everyday life beyond water cooler talk. "hey remember when they picked up that alien signal 5 years ago?" "yeah, that was pretty cool." "yeah. So you going to the jazz game this weekend?" "he'll yeah... Three-peat baby!"
 
I read about that. She goes on to say that she is talking about microbes and not advanced civilizations. That the first proof of extre terrestrial life will be on the microscopic level.
 
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