NBA to announce new TV deal on Monday

[phippsj]

The higher TV deal means higher contracts. Higher contacts will not be fully covered by the TV deal. Simple economics.
Your $40 tickets will creep up to 45 a few years later 50 and so on.
Many thousands of people are now getting rid of satellite and cable packages and going with roku. Netflix. Amazon fire tv. Apple TV and so on. This tv deal is not a good thing for anyone but the players and owners.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

What this actually means is that advertisers will pay more for the same amount of space. They are willing to do that because there are more eyes watching the game.

The amount cable networks pay for a package is determined by viewer results across the entire spectrum of programming, and they generally have a sense of what the increased costs are going to be. Then that gets distributed across all viewers. Depending on your point of view thus is why cable is broken, or great.

If your a fan, then your cost of entertainment is subsidized by all of the nonfans, keeping your cost of entertainment lower.

 

[Stifle Tower]

So does this change how any of you feel in regards to how Hayward's contract affects the team going forward?

It makes me feel alot better about it

Doesn't really matter.
In three years, Hayward is opting out and will demand a 5/30% contract. Do the Jazz want to pay him $25-30M in 2017 (according to GVC's estimate of the cap being at $100M)? I hope Gordon has a great couple of seasons. I hope Hood develops rapidly. I look for Hayward to be on the trading block in a couple of years.

 

[GVC]

In three years, Hayward is opting out and will demand a 5/30% contract. Do the Jazz want to pay him $25-30M in 2017 (according to GVC's estimate of the cap being at $100M)?

"Demand"? The market will set his price; I'd be surprised if any team offers Gordo 30% of the cap.

 

[GVC]

The higher TV deal means higher contracts. Higher contacts will not be fully covered by the TV deal. Simple economics.

This doesn't really make any sense. 44.74% of the increase in TV revenue will go to the players, fully covering the increase in player contracts (this is how the CBA works). The owners pocket the rest, while providing the exact same product. If other pro sports leagues are getting a similar bump in TV revenues (like the NHL received recently), it seems more reasonable to expect that ticket prices, or the rate at which ticket prices increase, will fall.

 

[Stoked]

Doesn't really matter.
In three years, Hayward is opting out and will demand a 5/30% contract. Do the Jazz want to pay him $25-30M in 2017 (according to GVC's estimate of the cap being at $100M)? I hope Gordon has a great couple of seasons. I hope Hood develops rapidly. I look for Hayward to be on the trading block in a couple of years.

"Demand"? The market will set his price; I'd be surprised if any team offers Gordo 30% of the cap.

Not to mention the trade kicker in his contract.

 

[GVC]

Not to mention the trade kicker in his contract.

Depending on when the new TV revenues will count for BRI, Gordo may be pretty hard to move.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Not to mention the trade kicker in his contract.

True. Forgot about the trade kicker. But he can waive it.
There's a reason Gordon wanted an opt out after 3 years. And that reason is he'll be a 7-yr vet and eligible for the 5/30% tier. Not saying he'll get it. But if a team like Charlotte was willing to give him a max deal, there will probably be a team stupid enough to offer him >$20M. I just hope it isn't Utah. We need guys like Tim Duncan who are willing to accept less so the entire team can be better. The luxury tax could be an issue in 4-5 years for Utah, especially if they try to retain both Kanter and Burks via matching contract offers.

SO I guess the consideration will be just to let Gordon go in 3 years when he opts out. Better start preparing for that now and in the next draft.

 

[GVC]

But if a team like Charlotte was willing to give him a max deal, there will probably be a team stupid enough to offer him >$20M.

Except that teams were anticipating a large increase in the cap with the new TV deal...

 

[Stifle Tower]

Except that teams were anticipating a large increase in the cap with the new TV deal...

Won't there be a huge increase in the cap over the next several years caused by the new deal? I was using your figures of a potential $100M cap by '16-17. Teams are going to have money to burn if that's the case. So a deal around $25M for Hayward is like the max deal he got this season (25% of BRI).

 

[GVC]

Zach Lowe has an article up: LINK

An important snippet:

• “Smoothing” is a popular word now around the league. There is no way to avoid some shock to the cap figure at some point, but there are ways to ease the trauma. The league and its TV partners, the same partners as under the old deal, could agree to make 2015-16 sort of a hybrid year, at some price point between the old $930 million and the new $2 billion–plus. That would raise revenues more than anticipated for 2015-16, and thus raise the cap beyond the current $66.5 million projection.

So...We could see a cap of $70mm+ next season to smooth the cap increase over the lifetime of the new TV deals.

 

[akirac73]

So does this change how any of you feel in regards to how Hayward's contract affects the team going forward?

I do feel better knowing that his contract won't cripple the teams flexibility as much, but I still don't think he's worth even half of that contract. I bet Hayward is kicking himself for jumping the gun...LOL. He could've done a one year deal, then after the salary cap goes up, ask for a $22M/year package instead.

 

[GVC]

Won't there be a huge increase in the cap over the next several years caused by the new deal? I was using your figures of a potential $100M cap by '16-17. Teams are going to have money to burn if that's the case.

My point is that Gordo's contract might amount to a more reasonable proportion of the cap as soon as next season, which Charlotte may have been planning for. It's entirely possible that Charlotte wouldn't have signed him to such a large deal if the expectation of a significantly increased salary cap weren't present. With shorter contracts under the CBA, and with the possibility of the increase in the salary cap being "smoothed" starting next offseason, a lot of the "money to burn" will already be burnt, and Gordo will receive compensation in line with his actual value (ie. less than 30% of the cap), when he hits free agency in 2017.

 

[Stifle Tower]

^^
Yes, I agree there will be some smoothing. But the players union is not going to accept the cap being artificially deflated for 3 years. So as your original post (which I believe was comments from Larry Coon) suggested, the cap could easily be close to $100M in 3 years. That's what I was referring to in my assertion that Gordon would opt out in 3 years and seek a contract in the $25M range. Maybe he doesn't get that much, but if he's averaging 18/5/5 and his shooting has rebounded to his historic 45%/38% range, I think a team will give him $20M+, especially when so much cap space is available. That's what drove his price up this year - multiple teams had available cap space to burn - and one of them did just that. In 4 years, $25M will be seen as a "discount" (i.e. less than a 30% max deal)

 

[mellow]

Days like to today suck. What do I care about a potential fight 3 years away between a bunch of millionaires and a few billionaires. I know it is an inseparable part of the nba, but dislike being constantly reminded about it. When the drama becomes bigger than the game it becomes wwf to me. Someone see if Cyndi Lauper is available....

 

[GVC]

Yes, I agree there will be some smoothing. But the players union is not going to accept the cap being artificially deflated for 3 years.

In return, it will be artificially inflated next season. I think that's something next year's free agents could get the rest of the players behind, but maybe not. If not, 2015 free agency could be really strange, with some players being paid a large portion of the cap relative to their actual value, and other players accepting 1-year deals.

So as your original post (which I believe was comments from Larry Coon) suggested, the cap could easily be close to $100M in 3 years. That's what I was referring to in my assertion that Gordon would opt out in 3 years and seek a contract in the $25M range. Maybe he doesn't get that much, but if he's averaging 18/5/5 and his shooting has rebounded to his historic 45%/38% range, I think a team will give him $20M+, especially when so much cap space is available. That's what drove his price up this year - multiple teams had available cap space to burn - and one of them did just that. In 4 years, $25M will be seen as a "discount" (i.e. less than a 30% max deal)

If...

But yeah, Gordo could command $20mm+ in 2016 under a $100mm+ cap. That would be the equivalent of making $12.6mm+ under the current cap figure.

 

[shadler]

How does this effect the local games on roots, if any? The online streaming thing seems pretty interesting.

 

[Hedda Gambler]

True. Forgot about the trade kicker. But he can waive it.
There's a reason Gordon wanted an opt out after 3 years. And that reason is he'll be a 7-yr vet and eligible for the 5/30% tier. Not saying he'll get it. But if a team like Charlotte was willing to give him a max deal, there will probably be a team stupid enough to offer him >$20M. I just hope it isn't Utah.

So you`re saying that you know for a fact what kind of a player Gordon Hayward will be three years from now?

 

[[size/HUGE] fixed [/size]]

sheesh... Favors' deal looks ****ing grrrreat now

 

[Stifle Tower]

So you`re saying that you know for a fact what kind of a player Gordon Hayward will be three years from now?

Yes. Based on his first four seasons and his age, we have a decent feel for his ceiling and persona on the court. Could he have an epiphany and suddenly become a superstar? Possible...but very unlikely.

I think last season was an outlier in terms of his shooting. I'd plug Hayward in at 16-18 pts, and 4-5 assists and rebounds. Shooting-wise, I think he returns to his 45%/38% range.

Those are good numbers, but certainly not what you want from a guy who is earning max money - especially a wing. SF/SG is the easiest position to fill in the league.

 

[franklin]

So does this change how any of you feel in regards to how Hayward's contract affects the team going forward?

No. I explained all this two days before the Hayward contract. This number is big, however, and Hayward just went from fairly paid to an absolute bargain.

The Favors deal is unreal. Equivalent to less than $8,000,000 under last season's cap.