NBA's proposed lottery changes bad for Jazz

[JazzForLifee]

LOL .. Sixers objected to the new changes ... SURPRISE!!!

https://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11284856/philadelphia-76ers-fighting-nba-push-change-lottery-system

They are tanking so bad. I hope they get a terrible pick in upcoming draft

 

[The Midnight]

They are tanking so bad. I hope they get a terrible pick in upcoming draft

LOL .. u know my Econometrics Professor at U of Auckland was this korean guy named Dongyu Sul. A real character of a man. Everytime I see your user name it reminds me of him (and how I could be earning the big bucks now if I had listened to him, LOL).


oH well, money's not everything I guess....

 

[stitches]

Probably good for the Jazz if it gets passed, they are not bottom 5, will probably end up picking around 10. Being very conservative....

Exum, Hood, Booker, Novak > Garret, JL3, Marvin, RJ: +5 wins
Natural progression of core: + 4 wins
Quin Snyder > Ty Corbin: + 3 wins

That's being conservative? Wow! I think you are fairly optimistic. I think we might improve, but not by much. In his latest article Pelton published the projected WARP-improvements(or declines) for the teams in the league after free agency. Now that metric is not perfect but it gives some sense of what's to be expected. We are the 4th most improved team in the NBA according to WARP(behind only Cleveland, Dallas and Chicago). Here's the section in his article talking about the Jazz:

4. Utah Jazz | plus-3.1 WARP

Key addition: Trevor Booker
Key loss: Richard Jefferson

After the top three, it's hard to find teams that made dramatic improvements via free agency and trades. The Jazz, like the Bulls, benefit from some addition by subtraction. Of the 10 players who saw action for Utah who are now gone, six project worse than replacement level -- including Jefferson (minus-0.3 WARP). So any contributions the Jazz get from Booker (0.6) and Steve Novak (1.8) are an upgrade.

The projection is +3.1 wins compared to last year. Which I think is somewhat realistic expectation(2-5 wins more than last year). If Snyder turns out to be really good maybe we can add a couple more.

 

[The Midnight]

^^^

Where is that from? Link?

 

[stitches]

^^^

Where is that from? Link?

https://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11280288/biggest-team-improvements-declines-offseason-nba

 

[The Midnight]

https://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11280288/biggest-team-improvements-declines-offseason-nba

It is said there the Jazz are supposed to be one of the teams with the biggest improvement? Fourth overall?

 

[mellow]

LOL .. u know my Econometrics Professor at U of Auckland was this korean guy named Dongyu Sul. A real character of a man. Everytime I see your user name it reminds me of him (and how I could be earning the big bucks now if I had listened to him, LOL).


oH well, money's not everything I guess....

Right....

 

[fishonjazz]

I don't think changing the lottery hurts Utah at all. They will be 5-10. If they end up #5 or 6 they would have better odds at getting #1 then under the current system.

This

 

[jazzyapma]

I really believe the Jazz will have at least 35 wins, I'm guessing 38 next year. There, I said it.

 

[BTP]

I like how the leaked proposed draft process is very similar to what I suggested last year. Flat odds beat tanking.

 

[jope]

i figured the NBA would do something about the lottery, but i didnt think the changes would take place until the next CBA. crazy stuff

 

[Stifle Tower]

The NBA is proposing new lottery rules that levels the odds of getting the top 3 or maybe even the top six picks. I think that hurts the Jazz in their current state. I believe the Jazz are going to be in the bottom five for the next several years. Why would we even consider changing the system until we are a much better team? Even if we improve over last year, and I believe we will, we still play in the Western conference. It is going to be hard to win a lot of games until we get more talent. I hope any lottery changes come several years from now.

Yup agreed. It's probably a stretch to implement it this coming season - just don't think there is enough time for consultation, etc.


I do believe DL is all over this and has therefore constructed the team to tank-1-more-year.

Completely disagree. Will the Jazz make the playoffs? Extremely unlikely. Last season it would have required 49 wins. Jazz are going to be better, but they won't double their win total.

But a tank requires getting rid of decent players and/or having no bench. Jazz have STRENGTHENED their bench. They re-signed Hayward.

PG - Burke is no longer a rookie, Exum is an immediate upgrade over Garrett/JLIII. Neither of those guys could shoot; Exum is a better playmaker.
SG/SF - Still have Hayward and Burks. Gordon is likely to be much improved shooting-wise (can't have another epically bad season). Burks came on late. He starts the season at a higher level than last October. Hood is lottery-value talent. I'd take him right now over RJ.
PF - Kanter may/may not be better. But Booker and Novak are solid backups.
C - Favors will likely be improved. We've already seen Gobert is leaps and bounds better than he was last season.

Coaching: Does this even need to be mentioned? Even IF Corbin was average, players just quit on him last March/April. Same won't happen with Snyder. I'm optimistic he'll have a Hornacek-like effect on the team.

If the Jazz don't win AT LEAST 35 games, it will be a disaster, IMO. But let's assume the Jazz just win 30. That would have been the 9th worst record last year. Proposed changes shouldn't affect the Jazz at all. I do see why Philadelphia is objecting. I don't agree with their strategy, but I do think the NBA needs to table the change for one season. 76er's are operating under the rules now in effect. Teams are largely set for 2014/15. NBA should not be allowed to make a change until AFTER the next draft.