NBA's proposed lottery changes bad for Jazz

[The Midnight]

Wow. This is exactly what jazz fans should try to stop. Lets take okc as an example. Lets say KD gets hurt in training camp so OKC just decides to tank the whole season. They keep out Ibaka because of his leg injury. However because Westbrook is a star they barely miss the playoffs. I dont want a system where OKC can get the number 1 pick because of one sorta down year due to one star being injured. The weighted system insures that the truly bad teams get the best picks. It also prevents one year tanking scenarios.

But how is a team 'bad' though? Geographically what makes MIL worse than IND? With clever FA signings and drafting (Hibbert & George were not top #5 picks), they were able to build their team the right way.


I would rather have an environment where all 30 teams try their hardest to stay competitive, and whoever they get in the draft is just an added bonus at the end of the year - not something they have to rely on.

 

[Stoked]

Increasing the number of spots that are 'randomly selected' only gives the NBA script writers more opportunities to tinker. This rule probably has very little to do with the league bing upset with Philly, and more about the PTB upset that they couldn't manipulate a way to get Exum to the Lakers or some other player-team hook up they wanted to make.

While they are at it, they ought to have a computer 'randomly select' the playoff match ups too. I bet the results would be shocking!

Man I love Kool-aide.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think the change would help us significantly. We will likely be a bottom 5-8 team this year. Under the current system we'd have a small chance to move to number 1. Under the proposed system we'd have a much better chance at moving into the top spots. We could slide 2 or 3 spots but that wouldn't hurt that bad.

The next two years we could be stuck in the middle and if we have a shot at moving from 12-14 into the top six that'd be a great help. Also, the GS pick. They likely won't be a bottom 3 or 4 team in 2017, but with an small injury or two could very well be in the high lottery. That pick could then move up.

I think there are better ways than this to fix the lottery, but this method wouldn't hurt us much.

 

[Jazz4ever]

Here is my logic on this:

Jazz clearly better

Orlando lost Aaron Afflalo and signed no significant free agents to makeup those 18ppg, those points cannot be made up by rookies and second year players, as we found out when Al and Paul left.
Philly - All systems go on the tank
Milwaukee - We were 10 games better than them and not even Jabari will improve them that much. They did not enter last year tanking, they just found out they royally suck and decided it was the best thing to do.
Lakers - A 40 year old Kobe might make up for losing Gasol. Jeremy Lin could get them a few more wins but expect we're better.
Minny - Losing Love is going to cost them around 15 games in the win column. Wiggins won't help them for a couple years, Minny could be the worst team in the league.

Borderline

Boston - With a healthy and motivated Rondo and somewhat NBA ready Smart yeah could potentially be better
Sacramento - They were supposed to start getting good for the last 4 years and never do, but have the talent to be better
Detroit - They had no draft pick this year and have that albatross Smith contract

 

[oldtimer]

Here is my logic on this:

Jazz clearly better

Orlando lost Aaron Afflalo and signed no significant free agents to makeup those 18ppg, those points cannot be made up by rookies and second year players, as we found out when Al and Paul left. oladipo is tearing it up playing with the big boys in vegas. by all accounts he has made a significant jump. Also Elfrid Payton looked good in summer league. Orlando and the Jazz had almost the same record as we did last year. Toss up.
Philly - All systems go on the tank. Full on intentional tank. Taking two players this year that may not play at all. Their only goal is to tank and get the number one pick next year. Add the number one next year, Embid, Saric and Noel and their rebuild is done. They start competing in two years for the playoffs. They have real hope of getting good in two years.
Milwaukee - We were 10 games better than them and not even Jabari will improve them that much. They did not enter last year tanking, they just found out they royally suck and decided it was the best thing to do. Its not just Jabari, the Greek Freak looked amazing at summer league. I wish we would have drafted him and not Burke hindsight being 20/20. They are on there way to huge improvement next year. Moreover they play in the EAST.
Lakers - A 40 year old Kobe might make up for losing Gasol. Jeremy Lin could get them a few more wins but expect we're better.The league wants Kobe to win. Kobe will shot 30 foul shots a night and they will make the playoffs next year. Jordon rules suck.
Minny - Losing Love is going to cost them around 15 games in the win column. Wiggins won't help them for a couple years, Minny could be the worst team in the league. Yes they lose Love but they gain Wiggins. Wiggins is the NBA star of the future. Minny will be good in the future. I wish the Jazz had a star.

The Jazz could be bottom five next year. Its possible. It would be horrible to finish with the worst record and end up with the seventh pick because six teams moved ahead of you in the draft. I know that is the worst scenario, but I worry about the NBA screwing my team.

 

[green]

Julius Randle, Stauskas, McDermott, McLemore, Burke, MCW, Greek freak, Drummond, Klay, Burks, Kwahi, Monroe, Hayward, George

All available the last couple years at 7 or lower. We need development.

 

[fishonjazz]

Julius Randle, Stauskas, McDermott, McLemore, Burke, MCW, Greek freak, Drummond, Klay, Burks, Kwahi, Monroe, Hayward, George

All available the last couple years at 7 or lower. We need development.

Word

 

[Stifle Tower]

Word

Two words: Quin Snyder

 

[BTP]

It is possible. But its also possible to be bad and not win the lottery. Thus you do not improve. I would like a system that ensures the bad teams get the best picks but also discourages tanking. My proposal of a weighted average over several years does this. Most teams will not intentionally tank 3 or 4 years in a row because they will lose fans. Taking a weighted average over time discourages tanking and ensures the bad teams get better players. I've been a fan for too long not to recognize the problem with the proposed changes. What you dont wAnt are teAms like the Lakers and Chicago having their star injured one year lose a whole bunch of games one year. Win the lottery and then dominate for years to come. Change the draft system but I dont like the current proposal.

I don't like the weighted system at all. I'd rather have the current system. The weighted system takes too long to get a top pick. You would have to tank/rebuild for 5 years before your get that pick. At least right now, teams can tank 1 yr, then get back to the playoffs.

What green said...

Just look at a team like the Celtics. Their run is over, they clear the board and would be ineligible to compete for top talent for multiple years. That's even worse than tanking.

 

[The Midnight]

What green said...

Just look at a team like the Celtics. Their run is over, they clear the board and would be ineligible to compete for top talent for multiple years. That's even worse than tanking.

LOL .. you being sarcastic or what bro?

 

[green]

You guys whine about a slotted system because "Miami or LA might get a top pick, boohoo" but then back a system that averages out your record? If you take Cleveland and average out thre years, and they win 58 this year, that averages out to 38 wins, which puts them in lottery pick range. So, you just gave Cleveland, with LeBron, another lottery-level pick. If you take Utah's last two years and say they win mid 30's, they fall into the same range as Cleveland. Next year, this system would have Utah picking 10-ish and Cleveland picking 12-ish. While OKC, after winning 50 games with a young Westbrook, Durrant and Harden would get another top 5 pick (which could have been Favors, Cousins, George, Hayward, Monroe). That's much worse than what we have now.

The averaged system is not a good one. The slotted is better, because at least you could plan for it. I get it if you don't like the slotted system, but you can't hate the slotted system and like the averaged out system.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It is possible. But its also possible to be bad and not win the lottery. Thus you do not improve. I would like a system that ensures the bad teams get the best picks but also discourages tanking. My proposal of a weighted average over several years does this. Most teams will not intentionally tank 3 or 4 years in a row because they will lose fans. Taking a weighted average over time discourages tanking and ensures the bad teams get better players. I've been a fan for too long not to recognize the problem with the proposed changes. What you dont wAnt are teAms like the Lakers and Chicago having their star injured one year lose a whole bunch of games one year. Win the lottery and then dominate for years to come. Change the draft system but I dont like the current proposal.

I think Philly is prepared to do this... they are already on year two, and I'll bet they don't look to be players in free agency next year.

I just don't think there is any good way to do this that everyone would be happy with... the current system rewards teams too much for losing and extra game or two. I'd rather see the lottery weighted by wins/losses versus having a percentage applied to a standings slot. Losing or winning a couple extra games wouldn't be as big of a deal.

What Philly is doing is a good strategy to try and accrue talent, but the obvious way they have gone about it is a black eye for the league. They deserve to have the rules changed for being so obvious and genuinely trying to be bad. If you lose in the name of development that is fine, but I think they've crossed the line a bit.

 

[Jazz4ever]

The more these alternate systems get discussed the more the current system seems best.

 

[nightmare3983]

I'd like to see the league say that any team can only get a top-3 pick with their own pick every other year. That way bad teams can still get very good players year after year, but teams like Cleveland won't have a chance to get the number one pick in back-to-back years with their own pick.

 

[nightmare3983]

I'd also like to see draft pick protections modified so that picks can only be lottery protected.

 

[green]

One plus for the slotted system:

You know what you are getting. When Utah traded Deron away, they traded him for a lot of "protected" picks, and GS screwed them over with one of the picks. Instead of trading Deron for a "top 6 protected pick", another unprotected pick that ended up #3, etc, they could have traded Deron for GS's #8 pick in 2013, Brooklyn's #2 pick in 2012, etc.

If you want to get rid of tanking, you have to have a hard cap and non-guaranteed salaries (no player will tank if he knows he will get cut the next summer).

If you want to give every team the most equal chance of success, the slotted system is the best.

 

[BTP]

LOL .. you being sarcastic or what bro?

No, I'm dead serious.

You clear your roster because your whole roster is too old. Your last years that roster got 50+ wins still.

Now with an empty roster you select around 14 because the influence from prior years dictate you to do 2 things: Get an overpaid mediocre uni around OJ Mayo like players to get 30-35 wins and troll fans until the 50 wins have no more influence on the draft seeding and then go Philly tank mode.
b) Go into Philly tankmode and pick around 12 because you manage to win 0 games. Happy birthday.

THat's just an unsustainable business model. If you tank you sell hope to your supporters and that means you need to be in position to pick up one of the most sexiest prospects and people will come occasionally to your venue to witness the growth of new talent and this gives you the possibility to turn around your franchise if you do it right relatively fast.

 

[♪alt13]

I don't like the weighted system at all. I'd rather have the current system. The weighted system takes too long to get a top pick. You would have to tank/rebuild for 5 years before your get that pick.

The current system is weighted. They are discussing adjusting the degree to which it is weighted.

The Jazz have never had a #1. Under the new odds we would have a greater chance. The current odds favor shameless owners and management. The new odds would give a pretty even chance to all bottom 5 teams. Does the worst team really need the first pick that much more than the 4th or 5th worst team?

At least right now, teams can tank 1 yr, then get back to the playoffs.

You do realize that only 1 more than half makes the playoffs every year right? 19 years out of 20 you don't make the playoffs by drafting one guy. You just don't.

 

[BTP]

The current system is weighted. They are discussing adjusting the degree to which it is weighted.

The Jazz have never had a #1. Under the new odds we would have a greater chance. The current odds favor shameless owners and management. The new odds would give a pretty even chance to all bottom 5 teams. Does the worst team really need the first pick that much more than the 4th or 5th worst team?



You do realize that only 1 more than half makes the playoffs every year right? 19 years out of 20 you don't make the playoffs by drafting one guy. You just don't.

This post is regarding to another proposal of another jazzfanz user who proposed:
determine lottery odds via the average record from the last 4 years or something like this.

 

[The Midnight]

No, I'm dead serious.

You clear your roster because your whole roster is too old. Your last years that roster got 50+ wins still.

Now with an empty roster you select around 14 because the influence from prior years dictate you to do 2 things: Get an overpaid mediocre uni around OJ Mayo like players to get 30-35 wins and troll fans until the 50 wins have no more influence on the draft seeding and then go Philly tank mode.
b) Go into Philly tankmode and pick around 12 because you manage to win 0 games. Happy birthday.

THat's just an unsustainable business model. If you tank you sell hope to your supporters and that means you need to be in position to pick up one of the most sexiest prospects and people will come occasionally to your venue to witness the growth of new talent and this gives you the possibility to turn around your franchise if you do it right relatively fast.

What I'm saying is you're saying it like the Celtics are in deep trouble - when was the last time the Celtics had an issue getting talent (if this tanking thing didn't work)?