Nikola Mirotic


Handlogten's Heros

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He's never shot 30%, unless you're counting his rookie year where he was 31.6%. I'm fairly willing to overlook that especially as these were the rookie percentages for the following guys:

Memo 33.9%
Love 10.5%
Dirk 20.6%

He shot 39% the year after and 34.2% last year. Career total 36.1%. He also shot 39.7% in the four years of Euroleague before that on 539 attempts.

47% or 38% -- who cares? Dude can shoot the ball. Equally impressive is his maintaining any of those numbers on his Godzilla amount of attempts.

Going from 31.6 - 39 - 34.2 concerns me a bit. I don't think he has the offensive rebounding, post game, or passing of Love. Dirk has so much more than just the 3 point shot.

Memo is a fair comp I guess.

Up until his recent hot streak he was much more Illyasova than Dirk. Some of the improvement may be real, but I'm not paying for the small sample size. Not giving our 1st unless it is a fake first (so top 16 protected this year and reverts into a 2nd).
 


fishonjazz

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He's never shot 30%, unless you're counting his rookie year where he was 31.6%. I'm fairly willing to overlook that especially as these were the rookie percentages for the following guys:

Memo 33.9%
Love 10.5%
Dirk 20.6%

He shot 39% the year after and 34.2% last year. Career total 36.1%. He also shot 39.7% in the four years of Euroleague before that on 539 attempts.

47% or 38% -- who cares? Dude can shoot the ball. Equally impressive is his maintaining any of those numbers on his Godzilla amount of attempts.
and the 46.5% he is doing right now is something that dirk and love never even sniffed. (memo had a year at 44% though. still never hit the % niko is currently)
 

Saint Cy of JFC

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I'm just so conflicted on adding Mirotic. He will hurt the tank and the tank should probably be the #1 priority.

But next year having a legit stretch/scoring 4 w/ a healthy Exum/Gobert will be nice.
 

infection

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Going from 31.6 - 39 - 34.2 concerns me a bit. I don't think he has the offensive rebounding, post game, or passing of Love. Dirk has so much more than just the 3 point shot.

Memo is a fair comp I guess.

Up until his recent hot streak he was much more Illyasova than Dirk. Some of the improvement may be real, but I'm not paying for the small sample size. Not giving our 1st unless it is a fake first (so top 16 protected this year and reverts into a 2nd).
I'm not necessarily comparing him to those guys in their complete game, but more about the idea that his 3p% is "inconsistent" being a concern. All of those guys are known as lights-out shooters but their numbers are less than what you would think. If you're concerned about him shooting 34.2% one year, Dirk has shot below that twice and right about there another two years; Love has shot below that for three years and right about there for another year; Memo shot less than that 5 years. Again, none of these guys had nearly as many attempts. Keeping those averages on so many attempts is a feat unto itself.

As a side note, perhaps I should start including Raef LaFrentz and Troy Murphy, just so we can round out the "white stretch four" comparisons.
 

fishonjazz

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He's never shot 30%, unless you're counting his rookie year where he was 31.6%. I'm fairly willing to overlook that especially as these were the rookie percentages for the following guys:

Memo 33.9%
Love 10.5%
Dirk 20.6%

He shot 39% the year after and 34.2% last year. Career total 36.1%. He also shot 39.7% in the four years of Euroleague before that on 539 attempts.

47% or 38% -- who cares? Dude can shoot the ball. Equally impressive is his maintaining any of those numbers on his Godzilla amount of attempts.
and the 46.5% he is doing right now is something that dirk and love never even sniffed. (memo had a year at 44% though. still never hit the % niko is currently)
 

infection

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I'm just so conflicted on adding Mirotic. He will hurt the tank and the tank should probably be the #1 priority.

But next year having a legit stretch/scoring 4 w/ a healthy Exum/Gobert will be nice.
The tank is a mirage. We'll have a streak somewhere in February and March where we'll look unstoppable and people will be talking about championship (I'm kidding but only kind of -- any time we put together wins people go crazy). That's going to do more to hurt the tank than anything. The difference Mirotic makes this year is we position ourselves better in the playoffs.
 

fishonjazz

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Seems that the risk if mirotic is a bit of fools gold is that we get a player like a young illyasova. Thats still a pretty good player on this team imo.
If we miss on the pick? Trey burke.
 

Handlogten's Heros

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I'm not necessarily comparing him to those guys in their complete game, but more about the idea that his 3p% is "inconsistent" being a concern. All of those guys are known as lights-out shooters but their numbers are less than what you would think. If you're concerned about him shooting 34.2% one year, Dirk has shot below that twice and right about there another two years; Love has shot below that for three years and right about there for another year; Memo shot less than that 5 years. Again, none of these guys had nearly as many attempts. Keeping those averages on so many attempts is a feat unto itself.

As a side note, perhaps I should start including Raef LaFrentz and Troy Murphy, just so we can round out the "white stretch four" comparisons.

There is a narrative that he was being misused both as a rookie and last year was tough with the ball dominant guys they had. There is some hope he is much more than a Troy Murphy or Illyasova for sure.

I just think if we wait them out a bit he either cools off or keeps helping them win so much that they have to move him to save their tank.
 

Handlogten's Heros

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Seems that the risk if mirotic is a bit of fools gold is that we get a player like a young illyasova. Thats still a pretty good player on this team imo.
If we miss on the pick? Trey burke.

But even if a rookie doesn't look great in year 1 they can still have a lot of trade value. I just think we are sitting in pole position with not a lot of incentive to act fast... so we will give them something, but not a first.
 

Ellis269

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Seems that the risk if mirotic is a bit of fools gold is that we get a player like a young illyasova. Thats still a pretty good player on this team imo.
If we miss on the pick? Trey burke.
So, the biggest concern with both is giving them a new contract that they fail to live up to.
 

infection

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There is a narrative that he was being misused both as a rookie and last year was tough with the ball dominant guys they had. There is some hope he is much more than a Troy Murphy or Illyasova for sure.

I just think if we wait them out a bit he either cools off or keeps helping them win so much that they have to move him to save their tank.
I think what's more relevant in a comparison is to look at what our current need is -- we need spacing very badly. If we assume Mirotic gives us his career average as a (very generous) worst-case scenario, then he's giving you 7.6 3PA/36 at 36.1%, while Ersan gives you 4.5 3PA/36 at 36.8% -- I think there's a huge difference in possible spacing with that when you've got a guy able to put up 40% more threes at the same percentage.

And if we want to be generous on the other end by looking at his recent small sample then Niko is giving you twice as many threes per minute as Ersan while shooting 10% better. Obviously that's not a fair comparison and skews too far to one side, but so does the other comparison above where Niko still comes out much further ahead.
 

fishonjazz

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But even if a rookie doesn't look great in year 1 they can still have a lot of trade value. I just think we are sitting in pole position with not a lot of incentive to act fast... so we will give them something, but not a first.
Well im looking at an amazing ceiling with mirotic (dirk) and our pick may have a similar ceiling.
Im looking a floor of illyasova with mirotic which still has trade value and im looking at a floor of jan vessley, trey burke, michael bennet, kwame brown, jimmer freddette, and many other busts as a floor for the pick. Did those guys have any trade value after the time their own teams realized they were busts?
 

fishonjazz

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So, the biggest concern with both is giving them a new contract that they fail to live up to.
The biggest concern with the pick is that they dont even earn a new contract. Jimmer, vessley, tsitisvilli (?lol)
 

Handlogten's Heros

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I think what's more relevant in a comparison is to look at what our current need is -- we need spacing very badly. If we assume Mirotic gives us his career average as a (very generous) worst-case scenario, then he's giving you 7.6 3PA/36 at 36.1%, while Ersan gives you 4.5 3PA/36 at 36.8% -- I think there's a huge difference in possible spacing with that when you've got a guy able to put up 40% more threes at the same percentage.

And if we want to be generous on the other end by looking at his recent small sample then Niko is giving you twice as many threes per minute as Ersan while shooting 10% better. Obviously that's not a fair comparison and skews too far to one side, but so does the other comparison above where Niko still comes out much further ahead.

Ersan was around in the caveman days... last few years are 5-6.8 per 36. I get it though Niko gets more volume and he has a dribble drive game too... Ersan draws a ton of charges so both players are different and have pluses and minuses.

I just think there is a chance he is in that tier or player and almost no chance he is in the Dirk Love tier of player.
 

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