Nikola Mirotic

[Handlogten's Heros]

Well im looking at an amazing ceiling with mirotic (dirk) and our pick may have a similar ceiling.
Im looking a floor of illyasova with mirotic which still has trade value and im looking at a floor of jan vessley, trey burke, michael bennet, kwame brown, jimmer freddette, and many other busts as a floor for the pick. Did those guys have any trade value after the time their own teams realized they were busts?

I hear ya, but if Dirk is Mirotic's ceiling then the pick has a ceiling of Giannis, DM, Kwahi, Gobert etc. The chance you hit big is less, but if you do you have them on a cost controlled deal and they are under team control for 7 years minimum. Niko we have under control for 1.5 years... and this year we aren't making the playoffs (or at least it is not a major concern).

He isn't worth our pick.

 

[infection]

Ersan was around in the caveman days... last few years are 5-6.8 per 36. I get it though Niko gets more volume and he has a dribble drive game too... Ersan draws a ton of charges so both players are different and have pluses and minuses.

I just think there is a chance he is in that tier or player and almost no chance he is in the Dirk Love tier of player.

I don't think he's in a Dirk or Love tier, but I think he's in an elite tier at doing exactly what we need a 4 to do -- space the hell out of the floor. Anything else is gravy, and I have the feeling we'll be getting a good side of gravy.

Overall Jahlil Okafor is a better talent than Niko but he's not what we need. Can we get what we need in the draft? At this point we have some pretty specific needs by having two real franchise guys in Mitchell and Gobert and it's not really a "hey just take whatever best talent you can get and make the pieces fit later."

Now if we're trading Gobert then that's another story, but I ain't on that bus.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The tank is a mirage. We'll have a streak somewhere in February and March where we'll look unstoppable and people will be talking about championship (I'm kidding but only kind of -- any time we put together wins people go crazy). That's going to do more to hurt the tank than anything. The difference Mirotic makes this year is we position ourselves better in the playoffs.

Yeah that's why every loss matters.

 

[infection]

Yeah that's why every loss matters.

You're right -- every loss will matter with the tank. Our streak toward the end of the year will shoot that to hell, with or without Niko.

 

[Sneakers]

Mirotic has a Dirk ceiling??? Sweet jesus ... this is the type of stuff we would make fun of another fanbase for saying

 

[Douchebag K]

what are the odds on getting a Kuzma type between 10-20 in this years draft ??

 

[infection]

what are the odds on getting a Kuzma type between 10-20 in this years draft ??

Go read up on some past drafts -- it's very slim. We're suffering from a recency bias.

Also very hard to predict because nobody (except Cy) would have looked at Kuzma and said "damn, here's your stretch 4."

 

[yamers]

lol at kuzma.

Kuzma is the most over-hyped player right now. If you watched any of the lakers games the kid flat out doesn't move on defense. Like Enes kanter might be a defensive guru compared to kuzma.

 

[Goodluckchuck]

lol at kuzma.

Kuzma is the most over-hyped player right now. If you watched any of the lakers games the kid flat out doesn't move on defense. Like Enes kanter might be a defensive guru compared to kuzma.

I agree. Hopefully he gets better in that area. But right now it’s extremely bad.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The tank is real. There is a chance we go 2-8 or 3-7 in our next 10 if Rudy does not come back. 3 games separated #10 and #6 last year... Sacramento who had the 8th best odds jumped into the top 3 (they had to swap with Philly because of Stauskas trade).

Right now the difference between us and #8 is 1 game... Dallas is playing better and had a tough opening schedule. BKN, LA have no motivation at all to tank. Chicago will continue to play .500 ball if they keep Mirotic. Memphis might even get healthy (probably not though).

Believe in the Tank

 

[enchilada_style]

This post needs to be the last time Dirk is mentioned in this thread.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I hear ya, but if Dirk is Mirotic's ceiling then the pick has a ceiling of Giannis, DM, Kwahi, Gobert etc. The chance you hit big is less, but if you do you have them on a cost controlled deal and they are under team control for 7 years minimum. Niko we have under control for 1.5 years... and this year we aren't making the playoffs (or at least it is not a major concern).

He isn't worth our pick.

What if there is an okc type protection.

For example

18th pick if we fall under that the next year becomes the 16'th. If not then it becomes two seconds. How about then?

 

[infection]

The tank is real. There is a chance we go 2-8 or 3-7 in our next 10 if Rudy does not come back. 3 games separated #10 and #6 last year... Sacramento who had the 8th best odds jumped into the top 3 (they had to swap with Philly because of Stauskas trade).

Right now the difference between us and #8 is 1 game... Dallas is playing better and had a tough opening schedule. BKN, LA have no motivation at all to tank. Chicago will continue to play .500 ball if they keep Mirotic. Memphis might even get healthy (probably not though).

Believe in the Tank

What if we have a 10 game winning streak?

 

[MDAV28]

My goal is to have an ocean of cap space in 2019 along with Mitchell, Gobert, Ingles, and another really nice player if they're a nice asset already. I'm just a little concerned that Mirotic isn't enough to take this team to the playoffs but would be enough to drop the pick five or more spots. Look at the standings, we're in the thick of it for a damn fine pick.

Oh I'm in complete agreement, I posted the same concerns last week before this Mirotic rumors. Jazz are definitely facing a crossroads being basically equidistant away from playoffs and high lottery.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What if we have a 10 game winning streak?

Well we are probably only favored in 3 or 4 of those games as of right now, so that would be a great run and we could re-sticky the playoff thread.

 

[idiot]

Just to support infection's point about 3-pt taking rate a little:

The list of players this year who have higher 3pt-shot rate per 100 possessions than Mirotic (that play more than 20 minutes a game):

• Curry
• Ellington
• Harden
• Isaiah Thomas
• E. Gordon
• Hood
• Korver

If you add to that list, the list of players who have a higher rate this year than Mirotic's career rate, you'd only add:

• Crabbe
• Covington
• Lillard
• Lou Williams
• K. Thompson

From those two lists, the only players who may exceed or be close to Mirotic as well-rounded scorers, rather than just a 3-point specialists (having 2-pt & FT rates/100 that exceed or are not too far below Mirotic's -- I'm being generous with Hood's & Thompson's FT rates):

• Curry
• Harden
• IT
• Hood
• Lillard
• E. Gordon
• L. Williams
• Thompson

Of these players, the one with the highest percent of Mirotic's rate of defensive rebounds/100 this year (11.7 def reb/100 possessions):

• Curry, believe it or not at 6.7/100 possessions, who gets 57% of the defensive rebounds Mirotic does

So yes, this is a rather arbitrary way to look at things. But if the Jazz are looking to keep Gobert, Rubio and Exum, then someone like this who shoots 3s at a very high rate, can also score in other ways, and is a capable (esp. defensive) rebounder seems like the ideal fit.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What if there is an okc type protection.

For example

18th pick if we fall under that the next year becomes the 16'th. If not then it becomes two seconds. How about then?

I'd do a fake first... say protections are top-18, top-18 2019 (converts into a second)... Would change from top 18 to top 14 in 2019 if they take Burks.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Oh I'm in complete agreement, I posted the same concerns last week before this Mirotic rumors. Jazz are definitely facing a crossroads being basically equidistant away from playoffs and high lottery.

At THIS point, I think it's straight foolish to not tank. What's amazing to me is that The Zone people are openly advocating for it... so I don't know, maybe the organization at some point will do the sensible thing.

A cheap, highly valuable asset is awesome anyway you slice it. You walk into 2019 with a playoff run, a very young superstar, the best defensive anchor in the world, a very nice glue guy, Quin Snyder, a very good organizational reputation, enough cap space for one or two max free agents, AND a blue-chip prospect... yeah, I don't know. Go big. Make a case to Klay and Butler, have the assets to do an extend-and-trade for Porzingis if that situation doesn't improve (a la Harden). Hell, you could get Mirotic plus one of those other guys (and not use any assets to acquire him now)! And you'd probably still be in prime position to grab Porzingis if he followed through with his threat of taking the QO and going into 2020 as a UFA.

Again, let's go big here. Time for the Jazz to try an unprecedented approach for them, because they are in kind of an unprecedented position (having an explosive, well-liked, incredibly respected franchise player as a rookie, plus everything else [I think players would like to play for Quin more than players wanted to for Sloan]).

 

[NUMBERICA]

At THIS point, I think it's straight foolish to not tank. What's amazing to me is that The Zone people are openly advocating for it... so I don't know, maybe the organization at some point will do the sensible thing.

A cheap, highly valuable asset is awesome anyway you slice it. You walk into 2019 with a playoff run, a very young superstar, the best defensive anchor in the world, a very nice glue guy, Quin Snyder, a very good organizational reputation, enough cap space for one or two max free agents, AND a blue-chip prospect... yeah, I don't know. Go big. Make a case to Klay and Butler, have the assets to do an extend-and-trade for Porzingis if that situation doesn't improve (a la Harden). Hell, you could get Mirotic plus one of those other guys (and not use any assets to acquire him now)! And you'd probably still be in prime position to grab Porzingis if he followed through with his threat of taking the QO and going into 2020 as a UFA.

Again, let's go big here. Time for the Jazz to try an unprecedented approach for them, because they are in kind of an unprecedented position (having an explosive, well-liked, incredibly respected franchise player as a rookie, plus everything else [I think players would like to play for Quin more than players wanted to for Sloan]).

(You'll notice I didn't say anything about Hood or Exum, who combined would likely be a max salary slot... cuz... yeah, I'm not feeling spending that cap [actual cap] on them.)

 

[idiot]

Just spittballing here:

I've been trying to figure out why we're seeing Favors's name so often in the trade rumors (rather than Joe Johnson's). He doesn't seem to fit what the Bulls have in mind (other than being an expiring).

Do you think there's a chance that the Bulls could be talked into (or talk themselves into) thinking that they'll be able to move Favors for something once the DeAndre Jordan trade market clears up (in other words, at the deadline itself). Locke keeps talking about Favors's market being established only after Jordan's is, since Jordan is the more desirable target for a contender. More than the Jazz, perhaps, they're in a position to accept a package with bad salary along with a first from a contender for Favors (after perhaps having picked up a second from the Jazz in a Mirotic trade). Or would that be too risky of a calculation for the Bulls to make?