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Nikola Mirotic

DownUnder said:
what are the odds on getting a Kuzma type between 10-20 in this years draft ??
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Go read up on some past drafts -- it's very slim. We're suffering from a recency bias.

Also very hard to predict because nobody (except Cy) would have looked at Kuzma and said "damn, here's your stretch 4."
 
lol at kuzma.

Kuzma is the most over-hyped player right now. If you watched any of the lakers games the kid flat out doesn't move on defense. Like Enes kanter might be a defensive guru compared to kuzma.
 
yamers said:
lol at kuzma.

Kuzma is the most over-hyped player right now. If you watched any of the lakers games the kid flat out doesn't move on defense. Like Enes kanter might be a defensive guru compared to kuzma.
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I agree. Hopefully he gets better in that area. But right now it’s extremely bad.
 
The tank is real. There is a chance we go 2-8 or 3-7 in our next 10 if Rudy does not come back. 3 games separated #10 and #6 last year... Sacramento who had the 8th best odds jumped into the top 3 (they had to swap with Philly because of Stauskas trade).

Right now the difference between us and #8 is 1 game... Dallas is playing better and had a tough opening schedule. BKN, LA have no motivation at all to tank. Chicago will continue to play .500 ball if they keep Mirotic. Memphis might even get healthy (probably not though).

Believe in the Tank
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I hear ya, but if Dirk is Mirotic's ceiling then the pick has a ceiling of Giannis, DM, Kwahi, Gobert etc. The chance you hit big is less, but if you do you have them on a cost controlled deal and they are under team control for 7 years minimum. Niko we have under control for 1.5 years... and this year we aren't making the playoffs (or at least it is not a major concern).

He isn't worth our pick.
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What if there is an okc type protection.

For example

18th pick if we fall under that the next year becomes the 16'th. If not then it becomes two seconds. How about then?
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
The tank is real. There is a chance we go 2-8 or 3-7 in our next 10 if Rudy does not come back. 3 games separated #10 and #6 last year... Sacramento who had the 8th best odds jumped into the top 3 (they had to swap with Philly because of Stauskas trade).

Right now the difference between us and #8 is 1 game... Dallas is playing better and had a tough opening schedule. BKN, LA have no motivation at all to tank. Chicago will continue to play .500 ball if they keep Mirotic. Memphis might even get healthy (probably not though).

Believe in the Tank
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What if we have a 10 game winning streak?
 
NUMBERICA said:
My goal is to have an ocean of cap space in 2019 along with Mitchell, Gobert, Ingles, and another really nice player if they're a nice asset already. I'm just a little concerned that Mirotic isn't enough to take this team to the playoffs but would be enough to drop the pick five or more spots. Look at the standings, we're in the thick of it for a damn fine pick.
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Oh I'm in complete agreement, I posted the same concerns last week before this Mirotic rumors. Jazz are definitely facing a crossroads being basically equidistant away from playoffs and high lottery.
 
infection said:
What if we have a 10 game winning streak?
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Well we are probably only favored in 3 or 4 of those games as of right now, so that would be a great run and we could re-sticky the playoff thread.
 
Just to support infection's point about 3-pt taking rate a little:

The list of players this year who have higher 3pt-shot rate per 100 possessions than Mirotic (that play more than 20 minutes a game):
  • Curry
  • Ellington
  • Harden
  • Isaiah Thomas
  • E. Gordon
  • Hood
  • Korver

If you add to that list, the list of players who have a higher rate this year than Mirotic's career rate, you'd only add:
  • Crabbe
  • Covington
  • Lillard
  • Lou Williams
  • K. Thompson

From those two lists, the only players who may exceed or be close to Mirotic as well-rounded scorers, rather than just a 3-point specialists (having 2-pt & FT rates/100 that exceed or are not too far below Mirotic's -- I'm being generous with Hood's & Thompson's FT rates):
  • Curry
  • Harden
  • IT
  • Hood
  • Lillard
  • E. Gordon
  • L. Williams
  • Thompson

Of these players, the one with the highest percent of Mirotic's rate of defensive rebounds/100 this year (11.7 def reb/100 possessions):
  • Curry, believe it or not at 6.7/100 possessions, who gets 57% of the defensive rebounds Mirotic does

So yes, this is a rather arbitrary way to look at things. But if the Jazz are looking to keep Gobert, Rubio and Exum, then someone like this who shoots 3s at a very high rate, can also score in other ways, and is a capable (esp. defensive) rebounder seems like the ideal fit.
 
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