Official Utah/Minnesota/Philadelphia Pick Watch

[HermanG]

Yeah I hear ya. Hard to understand Danny’s thought process on this one cause no question we improved Minny and LA with the idea of slowing our own roll. But we provided four good players and three second rounders for a headache named Westbrook two end of bench guys and one first that automatically conveys to a second. Westbrook is a headache because nobody’s going to be willing to pay even half of what he’s owed so we’re stuck with the bill AND now we have to come up with excuses not to play him without incurring the wrath of Adam Silver for overt tanking.

Not if you look at it from the other perspective.

You say four good players... I say:

• Conley was by far the best player of them, but also standing in the way of other young guards. Clarkson was the more logical tanking trade, but PG was the more obvious future need so freeing Conley's role was more important. He was also the team leader, and we needed someone else to step up there for long-term. Also had we simply benched Conley to create playing time for others.. his value in the offseason with that contract likely would have been negative and that locker room leader role would still be his.
• Beasley was an inconsistent shooter who took 8.6 threes per game (almost 1/4 of team total) with declining efficiency (his percentages went from 40.0% in Nov to 35.0% in Dec, to 32.1% in Jan to 31.4% in Feb). He was also one of the worst defenders in the team. Also like Conley, he was in the way of the other guards and in his case, Ochai in particular.
• Vando was the best prospect of the 3, but Hardy never wanted to play Vando with Kessler, which meant Vando was going for a deeper bench role had we kept him. He had a lot of positives about him but wasn't a fit to any other role in Hardys system except 5. His contract was a non-factor, but his value was gonna decline if we cut his minutes down just like with Beas and Conley.
• NAW was not intentended to be included in the trade, and Zanik said they didn't want to put him in that package but had to since Minny was included and they had to get more value for DLo.

We got plenty of cap space for next offseason.. 1 more movable premium asset (even if it can convey to a second.. its 5-34 pick guaranteed). 34 is the lowest, so its essentially slightly downgraded FRP that is still guaranteed to convert in 2027. Had we reduced the minutes of those 3 guys, there was no way we get a better asset for them in the offseason and our contract and cap situation next summer would have been worse.

Also I'm sure they felt like DLo to Conley switch was not clear cut to make Minny better since DLo had been on fire lately shooting like 44% from 3 since start of January with 19.5 PPG, 5.5 AST, 2.2 AST/TO. If you go look at DLo stat and team performance in January, you can see that he was sure putting up really nice numbers for them. Also DLo and KAT are buddies... so how did KAT like that move?

 

[HermanG]

Its not true at all... I don't call every move a tanking move... quite literally have said the opposite at times. You are just making **** up.

I rebutt... some people don't accept or move the goal post or just offer their alternative explanation. Playing the young guys and seeing what they have has very clearly been a method of tanking... it doesn't just have to be about tanking... it can also be exactly what it is... but it will lead to more losing almost always. There has been exactly one GM who has been direct about tanking and what he was doing... the league literally ended up removing him from his job and flattened lotto odds because of it. No one would ever even hint that they were tanking ever and it is in their best interest to strongly deny doing anything that would hint at tanking.

Whether they are tanking or not or lying or not I simply provided examples of how I judge actions and not words. Like when they say they are building around Don and want to keep him yet they are negotiating serious deals to trade him with multiple teams. Call it lying or just being disingenuous or telling part of the truth that is most flattering.

Players play and coaches coach... it isn't that hard to understand.

Did the player put it on a poster board and slap it every night before hitting the court? Or is that something they say. Just like when dudes are like "this is for all the haters". If there were tanking rumors or not this season I would promise you it wouldn't change our win loss record at all.

Maybe? why is this even relevant? Players and front offices aren't always aligned and even Danny said yesterday that their goals might bump up against each other... he tells players he is out looking for someone better than they are cuz that's his job.

You painted this utopia where business no longer look out for their best interests and hold hands and skip through the forest so everyone can win. Businesses have always worked together whether its B2C or B2B... I literally live and work in the B2B world and have made a great living there. Nothing I said was incorrect. Businesses play nice if there are benefits to both parties. Once there are not benefits the relationships change. With companies that have direct competing interests they only work together if they have to... and no one shares any extra information they don't have to. Danny has some seriously high stakes high pressure negotiations he handles... why would he want the other team he negotiates with to know the complete truth?


You are essentially telling me what Danny tells us is true and we should trust it. I parts of it can be true... but he doesn't have to tell the whole story. Its okay to fill in the blanks... he isn't going to do it for you.

When he says "we want to see the young guys play". What does that mean? It means they want to see what they have... that is true. It also means they are fine with the consequences of that action... and they are smart right? So they will have considered those consequences. What are the consequences of playing young players who clearly weren't as good as the players in front of them?

But what happens if Danny says... "we want to play the young players... and we were fine with losing a few extra games to help our draft considerations". The reveal gets league attention. That is why we fill in the blanks or hold actions above words.

I was half-way of dropping this subject but I guess we can continue this dance some more. So to summarize your worst takes from that post (so this doesnt grow too long)..

• Players having a common cause (the classic "chip on their shoulder") has no effect on win-loss column
  • This is just not true. Feel free to dig this hole deeper if you want to.
• You may be better in tune with our FO than our players, despite you admitting few posts earlier that Danny is honest towards the players
  • This is incredibly arrogant way of thinking about it. Of course the players are better in tune than outsiders.
• You claim to know and understand how B2B business operate...
  • ...yet you just used a B2C example in your previous post as and example of how businesses operate
• You continue to push the narrative that being honest and telling everything are somehow synonymous
  • Again, this is just not true. Danny said in October (direct quote): "I’ve been accused of (building teams to lose) before. It’s never been true.". There is no gray area here. Either they intended for us to lose and he lies or neither one is true. Having a reputation of being a liar is much more harmful than getting away with random lies can ever benefit you (its just publicity). And of course they keep most of their cards hidden... but thats not dishonesty.
  • If DA was thinking we would be bad, he would have said "this is a rebuilding year so we didn't have high expectations blaa blaa blaa.." but he didn't. He said they wanted to give Hardy a roster he can work with. That would be the 2nd lie right there if they were tanking.

Also I never said companies dont look out for their own best interest. That is again you putting words in my mouth. But in modern business theory, maintaining relationships is seen as more valuable than maximizing profits of each transaction. The ruthless competition ideologies of the 90's including hard closing in sales and dominating/suppressing the supply chain are outdated concepts. Some of those dont apply to sport management, but having a good reputation and maintaining relationships carry a huge value in it.

 

[fishonjazz]

IMO - it is a clear, intentional, multi-year rebuild but not an outright tank. The latter requires intentionally being as bad as possible for your own pick's value and we are not in that bucket (thankfully).

Agree to disagree. I think we are as bad as possible for our own picks value.
Problem is that our as bad as possible aint that bad.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

We are not good enough. I have no doubt we will be in the lottery. If Colin is out for few games, we can ended at a good place for the draft. And even if we go full roster, i still think Portland, Lakers, Minny are better than us. OKC is at our level. The others teams in front of us ( Memphis, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers....) are just better.

 

[Release the Kraken]

Not if you look at it from the other perspective.

You say four good players... I say:

• Conley was by far the best player of them, but also standing in the way of other young guards. Clarkson was the more logical tanking trade, but PG was the more obvious future need so freeing Conley's role was more important. He was also the team leader, and we needed someone else to step up there for long-term. Also had we simply benched Conley to create playing time for others.. his value in the offseason with that contract likely would have been negative and that locker room leader role would still be his.
• Beasley was an inconsistent shooter who took 8.6 threes per game (almost 1/4 of team total) with declining efficiency (his percentages went from 40.0% in Nov to 35.0% in Dec, to 32.1% in Jan to 31.4% in Feb). He was also one of the worst defenders in the team. Also like Conley, he was in the way of the other guards and in his case, Ochai in particular.
• Vando was the best prospect of the 3, but Hardy never wanted to play Vando with Kessler, which meant Vando was going for a deeper bench role had we kept him. He had a lot of positives about him but wasn't a fit to any other role in Hardys system except 5. His contract was a non-factor, but his value was gonna decline if we cut his minutes down just like with Beas and Conley.
• NAW was not intentended to be included in the trade, and Zanik said they didn't want to put him in that package but had to since Minny was included and they had to get more value for DLo.

We got plenty of cap space for next offseason.. 1 more movable premium asset (even if it can convey to a second.. its 5-34 pick guaranteed). 34 is the lowest, so its essentially slightly downgraded FRP that is still guaranteed to convert in 2027. Had we reduced the minutes of those 3 guys, there was no way we get a better asset for them in the offseason and our contract and cap situation next summer would have been worse.

Also I'm sure they felt like DLo to Conley switch was not clear cut to make Minny better since DLo had been on fire lately shooting like 44% from 3 since start of January with 19.5 PPG, 5.5 AST, 2.2 AST/TO. If you go look at DLo stat and team performance in January, you can see that he was sure putting up really nice numbers for them. Also DLo and KAT are buddies... so how did KAT like that move?

You say that DLo was playing at a high clip, but yet I say they were a broken team because Gobert was not being integrated into the offensive scheme due primarily to the selfish “get mine” play of DLo and Ant. As I expressed in my earlier post, in the two games since Conley arrived, the Gobert pick n’ roll has been reconstituted and Gobert had b 2 b games of 21 and 17, his best all year, and 3 blocks against Washington (season high?) and double digit rebounding both games thanks to Conley’s playmaking and connection to the big man. All pointing to the fact that Minny is a much improved team with Conley and much more likely to make the playoffs and diminish our acquired first.

And on the other hand, if we cannot get off Westbrook this season, we cannot hide him, or put him on the injury report erroneously without the risk of league penalty. So he plays for us in some capacity, we win at a higher clip, make the playoffs and lose our own first’s chance at a high pick. Also, and just as importantly, he’s a proven team vibe killer so the chance that, there goes the team culture in that scenario.

All said, this move was a risk we didn’t have to take for one lousy protected first. Have you even seen the returns on Vando? Perk and the rest of the NBA team are saying that his energy has transformed the Lakers. His, Beasley’s and NAW’s stock was only going to improve, meaning we get more, not less in the off-season. And having a player coach with Conley in camp next year would have been a blessing not a curse.

 

[framer]

We are not good enough. I have no doubt we will be in the lottery. If Colin is out for few games, we can ended at a good place for the draft. And even if we go full roster, i still think Portland, Lakers, Minny are better than us. OKC is at our level. The others teams in front of us ( Memphis, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers....) are just better.

I wish Portland was better than us. However, I don't really think they are, which is a huge indictment on that organization. Just sell us Dame already. . .

 

[Deron Williams]

Not if you look at it from the other perspective.

You say four good players... I say:

• Conley was by far the best player of them, but also standing in the way of other young guards. Clarkson was the more logical tanking trade, but PG was the more obvious future need so freeing Conley's role was more important. He was also the team leader, and we needed someone else to step up there for long-term. Also had we simply benched Conley to create playing time for others.. his value in the offseason with that contract likely would have been negative and that locker room leader role would still be his.
• Beasley was an inconsistent shooter who took 8.6 threes per game (almost 1/4 of team total) with declining efficiency (his percentages went from 40.0% in Nov to 35.0% in Dec, to 32.1% in Jan to 31.4% in Feb). He was also one of the worst defenders in the team. Also like Conley, he was in the way of the other guards and in his case, Ochai in particular.
• Vando was the best prospect of the 3, but Hardy never wanted to play Vando with Kessler, which meant Vando was going for a deeper bench role had we kept him. He had a lot of positives about him but wasn't a fit to any other role in Hardys system except 5. His contract was a non-factor, but his value was gonna decline if we cut his minutes down just like with Beas and Conley.
• NAW was not intentended to be included in the trade, and Zanik said they didn't want to put him in that package but had to since Minny was included and they had to get more value for DLo.

We got plenty of cap space for next offseason.. 1 more movable premium asset (even if it can convey to a second.. its 5-34 pick guaranteed). 34 is the lowest, so its essentially slightly downgraded FRP that is still guaranteed to convert in 2027. Had we reduced the minutes of those 3 guys, there was no way we get a better asset for them in the offseason and our contract and cap situation next summer would have been worse.

Also I'm sure they felt like DLo to Conley switch was not clear cut to make Minny better since DLo had been on fire lately shooting like 44% from 3 since start of January with 19.5 PPG, 5.5 AST, 2.2 AST/TO. If you go look at DLo stat and team performance in January, you can see that he was sure putting up really nice numbers for them. Also DLo and KAT are buddies... so how did KAT like that move?

It's not 5-34 guaranteed. Lakers could be 14th and jump into the top 4 in the lottery.

 

[Elizah Huge]

It's not 5-34 guaranteed. Lakers could be 14th and jump into the top 4 in the lottery.

You’re right. They could also be 3rd or 4th and fall to 5th.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I was half-way of dropping this subject but I guess we can continue this dance some more. So to summarize your worst takes from that post (so this doesnt grow too long)..

• Players having a common cause (the classic "chip on their shoulder") has no effect on win-loss column
  • This is just not true. Feel free to dig this hole deeper if you want to.

Yeah they were going to be horrible and unmotivated until they heard some people thought we were tanking… damn I messed up the tank by talking about it… had i given them my full support they would have surely been 10 games less… lol at this Disney **** you think is real.

• You may be better in tune with our FO than our players, despite you admitting few posts earlier that Danny is honest towards the players
  • This is incredibly arrogant way of thinking about it. Of course the players are better in tune than outsiders.

Super arrogant I guess… my interests with the Jazz more closely align with the interests of the front office than the players interests with the Jazz. If you hang around here long enough you will find I’m right a lot.

If you are convinced insiders are the end all be all… let me tell you a quick story when I was at Vegas summer league a few years ago… Jazz had just signed Royce and had 16 guys with guaranteed money. While discussing this with friends I mentioned Bolomboy was likely going to get cut. They guy in front of me scoffed and said Bolomboy wasn’t joint anywhere… I asked a quick follow up (like which guy with guaranteed money was going to get cut) and the guy again scoffed and said trust me he’s not going anywhere. The guy was the executive VP of player personnel at the time and completely dismissive of the thought at all. I didn’t solicit his opinion he simply offered it… guess what happened?

So yes an outsider can see the forest sometimes better than an insider and yes I am arrogant and opinionated. I also have reason to formulate and trust my own opinions rather than rely on the narratives the FO or Jazz insiders push.

• You claim to know and understand how B2B business operate...
  • ...yet you just used a B2C example in your previous post as and example of how businesses operate

You know nothing about me… you mentioned this business environment that is all touchy-feely and said nothing about b2b in your original response. And now I’m some idiot because I have an example that didn’t fit your assumed parameters k.

I literally started a b2b consulting firm that works off of referrals only. I have literally made millions… so maybe I’m a lucky bumbling idiot or maybe I know what the **** I’m talking about.

• You continue to push the narrative that being honest and telling everything are somehow synonymous
  • Again, this is just not true. Danny said in October (direct quote): "I’ve been accused of (building teams to lose) before. It’s never been true.".

Go on ahead and look up the Celtics tanking efforts in the KD draft and then come back to me.

• • There is no gray area here. Either they intended for us to lose and he lies or neither one is true. Having a reputation of being a liar is much more harmful than getting away with random lies can ever benefit you (its just publicity). And of course they keep most of their cards hidden... but thats not dishonesty.
  • If DA was thinking we would be bad, he would have said "this is a rebuilding year so we didn't have high expectations blaa blaa blaa.." but he didn't. He said they wanted to give Hardy a roster he can work with. That would be the 2nd lie right there if they were tanking.

Also I never said companies dont look out for their own best interest. That is again you putting words in my mouth. But in modern business theory, maintaining relationships is seen as more valuable than maximizing profits of each transaction. The ruthless competition ideologies of the 90's including hard closing in sales and dominating/suppressing the supply chain are outdated concepts. Some of those dont apply to sport management, but having a good reputation and maintaining relationships carry a huge value in it.

I’m done with this conversation so go ahead and respond if youd like but I’m out.

 

[HermanG]

It's not 5-34 guaranteed. Lakers could be 14th and jump into the top 4 in the lottery.

Which still makes it 31-34... or am I missing something?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Which still makes it 31-34... or am I missing something?

Second round is based on record so it would be the 44th pick.

 

[HermanG]

Yeah they were going to be horrible and unmotivated until they heard some people thought we were tanking… damn I messed up the tank by talking about it… had i given them my full support they would have surely been 10 games less… lol at this Disney **** you think is real.


Super arrogant I guess… my interests with the Jazz more closely align with the interests of the front office than the players interests with the Jazz. If you hang around here long enough you will find I’m right a lot.

If you are convinced insiders are the end all be all… let me tell you a quick story when I was at Vegas summer league a few years ago… Jazz had just signed Royce and had 16 guys with guaranteed money. While discussing this with friends I mentioned Bolomboy was likely going to get cut. They guy in front of me scoffed and said Bolomboy wasn’t joint anywhere… I asked a quick follow up (like which guy with guaranteed money was going to get cut) and the guy again scoffed and said trust me he’s not going anywhere. The guy was the executive VP of player personnel at the time and completely dismissive of the thought at all. I didn’t solicit his opinion he simply offered it… guess what happened?

So yes an outsider can see the forest sometimes better than an insider and yes I am arrogant and opinionated. I also have reason to formulate and trust my own opinions rather than rely on the narratives the FO or Jazz insiders push.


You know nothing about me… you mentioned this business environment that is all touchy-feely and said nothing about b2b in your original response. And now I’m some idiot because I have an example that didn’t fit your assumed parameters k.

I literally started a b2b consulting firm that works off of referrals only. I have literally made millions… so maybe I’m a lucky bumbling idiot or maybe I know what the **** I’m talking about.


Go on ahead and look up the Celtics tanking efforts in the KD draft and then come back to me.

I’m done with this conversation so go ahead and respond if youd like but I’m out.

I obviously offended you, which I do apologize. But I have tried to stay at arguing the points or rebutting your claims and arguments. I do realize its a thin line at times.

I am happy to let this go without touching the previous post, and likely we just disagree on this.

For the record I do think the tank might come eventually if we fall far enough below the play-in line. I will know its here when Johnny Juzang or Micah Potter "evaluation" begins.

 

[HermanG]

Second round is based on record so it would be the 44th pick.

Ugh. I was happier when I didnt realize that.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I obviously offended you, which I do apologize. But I have tried to stay at arguing the points or rebutting your claims and arguments. I do realize its a thin line at times.

I am happy to let this go without touching the previous post, and likely we just disagree on this.

For the record I do think the tank might come eventually if we fall far enough below the play-in line. I will know its here when Johnny Juzang or Micah Potter "evaluation" begins.

I have certain hot buttons… I am irrationally confident but I have my reasons. I have no problem running counter to reports or direct messaging from the front office… there have been several times a lot of posters lol me for reading between the lines and it turns out I was 100% right. Not every time of course…

Agree to disagree… water under the bridge… we good

 

[HermanG]

You say that DLo was playing at a high clip, but yet I say they were a broken team because Gobert was not being integrated into the offensive scheme due primarily to the selfish “get mine” play of DLo and Ant. As I expressed in my earlier post, in the two games since Conley arrived, the Gobert pick n’ roll has been reconstituted and Gobert had b 2 b games of 21 and 17, his best all year, and 3 blocks against Washington (season high?) and double digit rebounding both games thanks to Conley’s playmaking and connection to the big man. All pointing to the fact that Minny is a much improved team with Conley and much more likely to make the playoffs and diminish our acquired first.

And on the other hand, if we cannot get off Westbrook this season, we cannot hide him, or put him on the injury report erroneously without the risk of league penalty. So he plays for us in some capacity, we win at a higher clip, make the playoffs and lose our own first’s chance at a high pick. Also, and just as importantly, he’s a proven team vibe killer so the chance that, there goes the team culture in that scenario.

All said, this move was a risk we didn’t have to take for one lousy protected first. Have you even seen the returns on Vando? Perk and the rest of the NBA team are saying that his energy has transformed the Lakers. His, Beasley’s and NAW’s stock was only going to improve, meaning we get more, not less in the off-season. And having a player coach with Conley in camp next year would have been a blessing not a curse.

Im not sold that Conley will boost Rudys offense enough to compensate on what he himself gives up in comparison to DLo.

I know the returns are great for LA and I knew they would be (called it right away).. but Vando minutes were on their way down here. You dont raise value sitting on the bench. Kessler minutes were tied with Vandos in Hardys system/mind.

Kessler and Vando shared the court for only 63 minutes all season. In comparison, Kessler has played 23 minutes with Bolmaro and 132 minutes with Fontecchio.

 

[jazzfan1132]

Tanking or NOT - I do not know what they think- they can't say we are tanking.
BUT
Danny's trades besides of Gobert and Mitchell where teams were very hot for them are so poor.
Let's sum it up.
B.Bogdanovic, M.Conley, Vando, M.Beasley, NAW, 2nd pick - this is a ton of assets FOR Westrbrook (sorry) C.Olynyk (meh, no future move) Saben(gone) Juan T.Anderson, Damian Jones 1st round 2027 LAL (1-4 protect ) potential 2nd rounder. - very big risk.

 

[Hearsky]

Tanking or NOT - I do not know what they think- they can't say we are tanking.
BUT
Danny's trades besides of Gobert and Mitchell where teams were very hot for them are so poor.
Let's sum it up.
B.Bogdanovic, M.Conley, Vando, M.Beasley, NAW, 2nd pick - this is a ton of assets FOR Westrbrook (sorry) C.Olynyk (meh, no future move) Saben(gone) Juan T.Anderson, Damian Jones 1st round 2027 LAL (1-4 protect ) potential 2nd rounder. - very big risk.

You just gonna leave Pat Bev-THT hanging like that?

 

[framer]

You just gonna leave Pat Bev-THT hanging like that?

Jazz won that trade going away, just in entertainment value alone.

 

[framer]

I think, long term, swapping Conley for Russell was a bad move for the Wolves. They get older, and Mike's hammy is always on the edge. Even if they wanted off of Russell, they should have used him to gather some safer salary slots. Nobody's going to take Conley after next year or his expiring without an asset and Minny is REALLY low on assets.

Conley makes them better if they run Conley's style, but I am not sure they should be running Conley's style, especially once KAT comes back. Them taking the time to set up the Gobert pick and roll (which is good, but maybe not best) takes the ball away from their star and clogs up their motion. They should absolutely not be tailoring their offense to cater more to Gobert.

They needed stuff and their "finishing" move was getting Mike Conley. I love Mike, but I have seen this movie. I guess they got NAW, who I also like, but he's not putting anyone over the top either. I do predict he will be their starting PG by the end of next season though.

I think Danny knows all of this which is why he was so insistent on getting the deal done even if it looks a bit thin on our side. He further harms the Wolves long term and hopefully vaults the Lakers past them (and us) in the near term. He also frees up playing time for Kessler (who can't really play with Vando,) Ochai, THT (We really need to know what we have there,) as well as rookies we will draft.

And the part I like is that we aren't going to do the "taking on bad contracts" part of the rebuild which I hate.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I think, long term, swapping Conley for Russell was a bad move for the Wolves. They get older, and Mike's hammy is always on the edge. Even if they wanted off of Russell, they should have used him to gather some safer salary slots. Nobody's going to take Conley after next year or his expiring without an asset and Minny is REALLY low on assets.

Conley makes them better if they run Conley's style, but I am not sure they should be running Conley's style, especially once KAT comes back. Them taking the time to set up the Gobert pick and roll (which is good, but maybe not best) takes the ball away from their star and clogs up their motion. They should absolutely not be tailoring their offense to cater more to Gobert.

They needed stuff and their "finishing" move was getting Mike Conley. I love Mike, but I have seen this movie. I guess they got NAW, who I also like, but he's not putting anyone over the top either. I do predict he will be their starting PG by the end of next season though.

I think Danny knows all of this which is why he was so insistent on getting the deal done even if it looks a bit thin on our side. He further harms the Wolves long term and hopefully vaults the Lakers past them (and us) in the near term. He also frees up playing time for Kessler (who can't really play with Vando,) Ochai, THT (We really need to know what we have there,) as well as rookies we will draft.

And the part I like is that we aren't going to do the "taking on bad contracts" part of the rebuild which I hate.

Extremely well said. Russell absolutely won a few games by his shooting alone this year. Their biggest problem now is they have no real scoring threat outside of Edwards for as long as KAT is out.