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Playoffs!

David Stern said:
I'd be cool with dropping to 7 and getting the Clippers. We'd lose, but it would be a good series.
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Maybe not! Of the four possible playoff opponents for us, the Clippers are the only one we have a winning record against! We're two and one this year vs the Clips. We're one and two vs the thunder, one and two vs the Rockets (thanks to Bogey), and we're zero and three vs the Nuggets. I say we control the outcome, move up in the draft, avoid the Rockets and Harden and take our chances against the Clips. We've got no shot against the Rockets with Harden and Westbrook, not without Rubio to get into Westbrook.
 
I don't think regular season matchups say much when it come to the playoffs. Don't remember for sure, but hadn't we lost the season series in our two upset playoff series wins against the Thunder and Clippers?

The thing I've been neglecting in all of this is that if any teams are angling for a playoff matchup, it's to try to match up with us. We'll (rightly, I think) be underdogs in any series. We may be angling for the Nuggets, or whoever else, but ultimately everyone wants us in the first round. But there's still enough uncertainty left that I'm not sure that any team has the upper hand in this. They may not be able to do much to confidently increase their chances to get us until the last day or two of the seeding games.
 
Hopefully Quin's man crush on lard *** Niang comes to end that guy is a scrub but still better than Bustum
 
Here's the remaining high-and-low seeding possibilities for teams currently ranked 2-7 in the West, if I understand things right, prior to Monday's games:

(Current seed 2) Clippers: (games remaining: Nuggets, Thunder) likely in 2-spot, but Denver controls their fate. Denver takes 2-seed if Nuggets win out. Could theoretically fall to 4-seed if lose out and Rockets win out. Have slight advantage in maneuvering for seeding with game on the final day.

(3) Nuggets: (vs Lakers, Clippers, Raptors) will take 2-seed if win out. Can fall as low as 5-seed. Have slight advantage in maneuvering for seeding with game on the final day.

(4) Rockets (vs Spurs, Pacers, Sixers). Could theoretically rise to 2-seed if win out and Clippers lose out (would hold tie-breaker) and Denver loses two games. Could fall to 6-seed by losing out along with Jazz winning 2 games and Thunder winning 1 game. Have slight advantage in maneuvering for seeding with game on the final day.

(5) Thunder (vs Suns, Heat, Clippers) Could rise to 3-seed if win out and Nuggets lose out, along with Rockets losing at least once. Could fall to 7-seed by losing out, Dallas winning out and Jazz beating Spurs. Have slight advantage in maneuvering for seeding with game on the final day.

(6) Jazz (vs Mavs, Spurs). Could rise to 4-seed if win out and both Houston loses out and OKC loses twice. Can fall to 7-seed if lose out and Mavericks win out. No game on the final day; thus slight disadvantage in maneuvering for seeding.

(7) Mavs (vs Jazz, Portland, Suns). Can only avoid 7-seed if win out and one of Thunder and Jazz lose out. Can rise to 5-seed if Thunder and Jazz both lose out. No game on the final day; thus slight disadvantage in maneuvering for seeding.
 
Mavs have a B2B against the Jazz and Blazers. They want to rest their stars for one of those games, so they'll concede the #6 seed. Jazz should beat the Mavs (without Luka) and can rest or do whatever against the Spurs. TBH, I'd prefer that they drop their last game. Hopefully, the Spurs will have something to play for and won't have been eliminated.

If the Rockets lose one more game, and concurrently if the Nuggets win at least one more game, the Rockets will end up in the #4 seed.

I'm interested to see if the Clippers and Nuggets are going to fight with each other to get the #3 seed and play Utah. The Clips and Nuggets play each other this week. Will be interesting to watch.
 
Catchall said:
Mavs have a B2B against the Jazz and Blazers. They want to rest their stars for one of those games, so they'll concede the #6 seed. Jazz should beat the Mavs (without Luka) and can rest or do whatever against the Spurs. TBH, I'd prefer that they drop their last game. Hopefully, the Spurs will have something to play for and won't have been eliminated.

If the Rockets lose one more game, and concurrently if the Nuggets win at least one more game, the Rockets will end up in the #4 seed.

I'm interested to see if the Clippers and Nuggets are going to fight with each other to get the #3 seed and play Utah. The Clips and Nuggets play each other this week. Will be interesting to watch.
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So a win against Dallas makes it a lock for 6 for us then?
 
DasJazz said:
So a win against Dallas makes it a lock for 6 for us then?
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Yes, but any win or any Dallas loss would guarantee the Jazz #6. TBH, the Jazz might want to lose today and play the young guys some more.

Dallas would have to beat both Portland and Phoenix in their final two games. Both of those teams are desperately trying to win.

The Jazz could also beat San Antonio on the last game of the season, at which point the Spurs are likely to already be eliminated from the post season.

The other scenario to pay attention to would be the Thunder losing enough to drop to 6, while pushing the Jazz up to 5.
 
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idiot said:
I don't think regular season matchups say much when it come to the playoffs. Don't remember for sure, but hadn't we lost the season series in our two upset playoff series wins against the Thunder and Clippers?
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We got dominated in both those season series and still won in the playoffs. My personal opinion is that 2 of 3 losses against Denver this season had more to do with the Jazz choking down the stretch, as opposed to Denver dominating us.
 
idiot said:
Not at all. If OKC decides it wants #6 (which I'm not sure it does), it could easily outmaneuver us there. Then we'd be at #5, likely against Rockets.
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If the Jazz lose their two remaining games, OKC can't drop to the 6th seed. Utah would be 43-29, and even if OKC loses all of its remaining games, OKC would have the same record and get the 5th seed due to winning the season series 2-1.

Dallas could grab the 6 seed if the Jazz lose both their games, and Dallas wins all of their last three games. That means Dallas would have to beat both Portland and Phoenix after beating the Jazz.
 
OKC vs Denver we can have the conversation. But the Thunder are just annoying. If Denver comes down to Gobert vs Jokic and Mitchell being better than the Denver #2 guy then I will take that every time.

Quin always comes up with something that will win if executed correctly, and open shots go in. I just think against Denver we have the best chance of that working.


**** playing Houston, always.
 
Catchall said:
If the Jazz lose their two remaining games, OKC can't drop to the 6th seed. Utah would be 43-29, and even if OKC loses all of its remaining games, OKC would have the same record and get the 5th seed due to winning the season series 2-1.

Dallas could grab the 6 seed if the Jazz lose both their games, and Dallas wins all of their last three games. That means Dallas would have to beat both Portland and Phoenix after beating the Jazz.
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Right, so if Jazz win today, they are vulnerable to be overtaken to #6 from above by OKC. If Jazz lose today, they are vulnerable to be overtaken to #6 from below by Dallas. (But I think #6 is still likeliest, all things considered).
 
idiot said:
Right, so if Jazz win today, they are vulnerable to be overtaken to #6 from above by OKC. If Jazz lose today, they are vulnerable to be overtaken to #6 from below by Dallas. (But I think #6 is still likeliest, all things considered).
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If the Jazz need to, they can probably beat San Antonio in their last game. I want to see Dallas beat Phoenix and Portland first to see if we really need to win a game. Until then, we need to match the Thunder loss for loss. I'm expecting either Portland or Phoenix to beat Dallas because those teams really want to win.
 
BTW, Darius Bazley is starting to play well for OKC. That was a guy I liked for the Jazz in last year's draft before we traded our pick.
 
Catchall said:
If the Jazz need to, they can probably beat San Antonio in their last game. I want to see Dallas beat Phoenix and Portland first to see if we really need to win a game. Until then, we need to match the Thunder loss for loss. I'm expecting either Portland or Phoenix to beat Dallas because those teams really want to win.
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We got a break in the schedule: The Thursday TBD games ended up with Dallas playing first and should end just as we're starting. So you're right -- Dallas will indeed have played its full schedule before we play the Spurs. We'll be able to better calibrate if we want to win or lose (although the full shenanigans of seed 2-4 may not yet be determined by that point).
 
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idiot said:
We got a break in the schedule: The Thursday TBD games ended up with Dallas playing first and should end just as we're starting. So you're right -- Dallas will indeed have played its full schedule before we play the Spurs. We'll be able to better calibrate if we want to win or lose.
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It's a question of how motivated Dallas is to compete for the 6th seed. They were willing to concede today's game to the Jazz. Meanwhile, Portland and Phoenix are playing for every win they can get in order to get into the post season.
 
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