Poll: Should the Jazz Match Hayward's $15.75 a year/4 year Contract?

[JAZZGASM]

Overall, I see Hayward as a step below Paul George. George's contract is up to $18M a year based on the incentives (up to $90M over 5 years).

Hayward at $15.75 is a bit high, but I don't think it is the worst contract in the league. Granted, P.G. is a better defender, but overall his stats were not too far off from Hayward's, and P.G. plays in a system that benefits his game.

What are your opinions? How much more is P.G. worth to you than Hayward?

 

[Stifle Tower]

Overall, I see Hayward as a step below Paul George. George's contract is up to $18M a year based on the incentives (up to $90M over 5 years).

Hayward at $15.75 is a bit high, but I don't think it is the worst contract in the league. Granted, P.G. is a better defender, but overall his stats were not too far off from Hayward's, and P.G. plays in a system that benefits his game.

What are your opinions? How much more is P.G. worth to you than Hayward?

George >>>>>>>> Hayward. It's not even close.

Paul George will actually be more expensive than that as he is eligible for a 5/30% contract (the Derrick Rose rule) due to his all-star appearances and being named 3rd-team all-NBA.

"The final terms of George's deal will not be known until the NBA sets the salary cap in July. Based on a currently projected $63 million cap, George's deal will come in at about $97 million over the next five years.


But the Pacers also may be feeling good about how this is playing out because some artful negotiating saved them an additional $11 million George could have earned...Knowing that George had a good chance of making the All-NBA team again, the Pacers pre-emptively negotiated a provision that would limit the bonus. Instead of giving George 30 percent of the salary cap, as he was eligible for by making the two All-NBA teams, the Pacers and their franchise star agreed to 27 percent. This was the first time this type of deal had been agreed to. In return, the Pacers gave George an opt-out clause in 2018 so he can become a free agent sooner if he chooses."

 

[fishonjazz]

math to idiot.

Some sort of ironic ratio?

 

[fishonjazz]

So feel free to convince me what exactly you would do with the Jazz capspace when you let Gordon walk.

Use it to sign players that deserve it

Use it to trade for star players that other teams can no longer afford (harden at okc)

Use some of it on trevor ariza

Use it like boston did this year (take other teams one year salary dumps for assets)



Dont spend max money on average players

 

[fishonjazz]

Has nothing to do with right side. I'm still waiting to see something smart from the anti-Hayward front.

What exactly would you do with the capspace that stays open by letting Hayward walk?

I just look at his '17 and '18 outs and I don't see a lot of valuable free agents then unless the SoBe-Mafia hands out some shady 3 years max deals and Derrick Rose has some weird reincarnation.
This year's free agency is a freak accident that none saw coming. Through a lot of unforeseen circumstances you had extra players and others becoming players towards end of the season.

So feel free to convince me what exactly you would do with the Jazz capspace when you let Gordon walk.

Can you tell me why you think we should pay hayward max money without saying dumb crap like "we have to spend the money anyway" or "there is no one else to spend the money on"

 

[fishonjazz]

I know I understand the market and the projected developments and I'm pretty sure from all the convos I've had on this board that there are very little people who know free agent classes as well as I do.
I could give you a little discourse why this year's free agency has developed into such a mess.

So since this year is an abberation and has turned into a mess, you think we should be active and get involved in the mess by paying through the nose for an average player instead of wait to spend big during a free agent year that isnt a mess?

Smart

 

[addictionary]

2 main prospect players are in their contract years. The Jazz are going to need salary cap. I think if the Jazz keep Gordon and Burks performs well, he will demand a salary that Jazz will not match and he will be a goner. As for Kanter, if he does not jump this year, I think he is a trade asset in the end of the season in the eyes of the FO. If they don't match Hornets' offer, they are going to have to deal with a thrilling pace of signing one or two starter-capable sized forwards that will aid the young roster in the long run. There is still place in the rotation to stretch the floor and I think Jazz need more 3 pt shooters on the team to become whatever Snyder and Lindsey have on their minds for the team to become which is hopefully nothing lesser than the next ****ing Spurs baby!

 

[fishonjazz]

Who's going to have capspace. Name me one franchise

I have orlando will have cap space. There is your one team you asked for and thats all it takes.

And before you say "orlando already has shooting guards"..... there is no way you can know what happens next year.

Maybe olidipo has a career ending injury.

Maybe burks blows up and turns into a star and orlandos player look bad so they decide to offer burks the max.


Thats the thing...... you dont know the future or who or what we might need this money for.

Whay we DO KNOW is that hayward has not played like a star player that should get the max
Its really that simple

LOL.. CHA for one if we're matching Hayward the way you're wanting us to this year.

And that.
Apparently they need a sg

I like Hayward's upside over Ariza, who has already proven twice to be a contract year only player. I'm not taking that risk. Ariza also doesn't fit the contention window.

Thats pretty vague.
We are not going to be in contention in the next 4 years with hayward as our max guy

And because I don't see how signing Hayward to a max helps us win much in the next four years

Yup

Charlotte won't have too much need for Burks. Gordon is the perfect playmaker for them. Burks just replaces Henderson.

You dont know what kind of season burks will have next year.

Trevor Ariza has won a championship, hes had injuries that coincided with his down years, you forget key points like that in your all seeing analysis.

Everyone talks of 3 and D players around here, but clearly the overall sentiment is yall prefer Hayward.

You are flat out wrong about Brook Lopez, if hes healthy and normal he will EASILY get the max, at this point in his career, hes bigger and stronger than most every C, Lopez is like Prime Yao on offense. He punked the Jazz bigmen so bad last year, he barely needed to play in the 2nd half.

Lopez is my preferred Bigman in the 2015 class but IIRC theres a bunch of them, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Asik, enough where if the Jazz had 30 mil in space they could throw out a bunch of offers to worthy players.

Theres a ton of mid-level guys that are interesting; Wesley Matthews, Marco Bellineli, Danny Green, Thaddeus Young

Tobias Harris and Reggie Jackson are restricted. Faried too.

Goran Dragic will opt out, Gerald Green will be on the market, if he has another efficient year, I'd sign him to a decent sized deal no problems.

Maybe even a Gerald Henderson, or Gary Neal. Demarre Carrol, Paul Millsap and Rajon Rondo will be unrestricted aswell.

I can find 100's of scenarios that i prefer over giving Hayward 63 mil, tbh, some of it might take 1 year of patience, but the Tank would strengthen as a result too.

Damn pgab killed it.

Btp says this year is just an abnormal crazy year because so many team have cap space and next year not very many do.

Looks like there are lots of free agemts available next year that we may be able to get at a decent price.

But then again another poster listed a bunch of teams with cap.space next year so maybe btp just dont know what hes talking about

Lemme see:
Blazers: At least 56.5M cap hold if they renounce every slacker. That would exclude them from using MLE though. Not sure they want that. Also some of their own guys are due for raises. -> Unlikely
Lakers: Have Cap Space but usually go for big fish. Kobe $25M + Randle $3.1M + Love $18.5M + some other long term contracts they make this summer or at least $5M for roster slot cap holds. Leaves them at $15M in projected cap space. Also eventually their own draft pick has a hold. Way too vague. But my best guess they find another way to spend. Also Burks and Kobe are redundant to some extent. -> Too early to tell, but possible.
Suns: Could be depending on what they do with Gerald Green, Dragic. But if they're about keeping their functioning unit together, they wouldn't wanna spend their limited cap space on him, but look for reinforcements on the big positions. Have to deal with Morris bros as restricted as well. -> too early to tell, but unlikely
Spurs: Are capped due to expirings from Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Belinelli, Green. Also Kawhi (Spurs-close-to) max extension kicks in(They'll give him that) -> very unlikely
RAptors: No need with them being close to the cap when you subtract bums, having to deal with extending Amir Johnson. Have invested heavily in their backcourt: Lowry($12M), Vasquez($6.5M), DeRozan($9.5M), Ross($3.5M, rookie ends after 15/16), Caboclo ($1.3M). -> no chance
Heat: If big 3 remain, no cap space. Else they might spend their capspace on him if they don't want to traditionally rebuild. -> unlikely, too early to tell
Sixers: Want to be bad competitively until 2016 or 2017. Too early for them to start contributing pieces. Burks not good enough a shooter to pick up good value and leave that plan -> Very unlikely.
Magic: Backcourt minutes are for other guys. Also too bad a shooter to help them. Invested in Lil' Ben to shoot the lights out as reserve guard. -> unlikely, because another piece with no shooting. But then again Orlando was weird this draft as well.

So love plays for the lakers?
Burks and kobe redundant? (I though kobe was getting older and is coming off an injury..... he will need to play less minutes and burks could be thier 6th man to help kobe get rest)
Burks cant shoot? He seems to get better each year so next year maybe his shot comes around. Thats the thing. We cant see the future

all the teams may favor unrestricted guys

That word "may" sounds speculative

I don't think it's fair to call Alec a non-shooter. If you ignore his 9 heaves from beyond midcourt last season, he shot 37% from 3, including a team best 42% on catch-and-shoots (per NBA.com's player tracking data) and 43.2% on spot-ups (per synergysports). The volume isn't there, but I think that's more a function of his on-ball role off the bench.

Oh snap

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You dont know what kind of season burks will have next year.

Probably one similar to last year, but less shots since we are bringing in a high profile rookie.

 

[fishonjazz]

He's not elite that's my point. Good %s on a small sample size aren't worth too much in the league. He increases his numbers furthers and triples attempts, then I call him a good shooter. Now he's an opportunistic shooter. Can we agree on that?

As his attempts (and years in the league) have increased, so have his percentages

 

[fishonjazz]

So that is 7+ things no one really predicted that happened this year, but next year EVERYTHING will go as predicted

Btp knows all

 

[sirkickyass]

Lemme see:
Blazers: At least 56.5M cap hold if they renounce every slacker. That would exclude them from using MLE though. Not sure they want that. Also some of their own guys are due for raises. -> Unlikely
Lakers: Have Cap Space but usually go for big fish. Kobe $25M + Randle $3.1M + Love $18.5M + some other long term contracts they make this summer or at least $5M for roster slot cap holds. Leaves them at $15M in projected cap space. Also eventually their own draft pick has a hold. Way too vague. But my best guess they find another way to spend. Also Burks and Kobe are redundant to some extent. -> Too early to tell, but possible.
Suns: Could be depending on what they do with Gerald Green, Dragic. But if they're about keeping their functioning unit together, they wouldn't wanna spend their limited cap space on him, but look for reinforcements on the big positions. Have to deal with Morris bros as restricted as well. -> too early to tell, but unlikely
Spurs: Are capped due to expirings from Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Belinelli, Green. Also Kawhi (Spurs-close-to) max extension kicks in(They'll give him that) -> very unlikely
RAptors: No need with them being close to the cap when you subtract bums, having to deal with extending Amir Johnson. Have invested heavily in their backcourt: Lowry($12M), Vasquez($6.5M), DeRozan($9.5M), Ross($3.5M, rookie ends after 15/16), Caboclo ($1.3M). -> no chance
Heat: If big 3 remain, no cap space. Else they might spend their capspace on him if they don't want to traditionally rebuild. -> unlikely, too early to tell
Sixers: Want to be bad competitively until 2016 or 2017. Too early for them to start contributing pieces. Burks not good enough a shooter to pick up good value and leave that plan -> Very unlikely.
Magic: Backcourt minutes are for other guys. Also too bad a shooter to help them. Invested in Lil' Ben to shoot the lights out as reserve guard. -> unlikely, because another piece with no shooting. But then again Orlando was weird this draft as well.

This is the worst kind of "analysis." You started with the conclusion and then worked backwards to try and eliminate possibilities.

The reality is that next summer is the Kevin Love summer and teams are operating under the assumption that the cap will rise to close to $68 million for 2015-2016. This means lots of teams are putting themselves in the position to either have max cap room under that new cap number or to get there somewhat easily.

That means teams like the Blazers that you cite a $56.5 million cap hold for are much closer to max cap than you're letting on. Even a team like OKC will only have a cap figure of $51.4 and have $17 million in cap room basically just because Kendrick Perkins finally comes off the books and the only guy they have due for an extension is Reggie Jackson. Being at all forward thinking it's not hard to imagine OKC generating max cap room while being able to keep all their guys (with maybe Nick Collison excepted).

Some teams, like the Kings, have cap sheets so clear that they could theoretically max TWO guys next offseason. The Celtics might be able to max THREE if they play their cards right.

In sum, the conclusion that no one has cap space next season so our cap space is valueless is ludicrous.

 

[fishonjazz]

Overall, I see Hayward as a step below Paul George. George's contract is up to $18M a year based on the incentives (up to $90M over 5 years).

Hayward at $15.75 is a bit high, but I don't think it is the worst contract in the league. Granted, P.G. is a better defender, but overall his stats were not too far off from Hayward's, and P.G. plays in a system that benefits his game.

What are your opinions? How much more is P.G. worth to you than Hayward?

I agree kinda but feel paul george is overpaid a little too

 

[fishonjazz]

Probably one similar to last year, but less shots since we are bringing in a high profile rookie.

Maybe.
Maybe he averages 30 ots per game.
Again, know knows the future.

What we do know is that haywards shooting percentages have gone down every year in the league, he is turnover prone in the pick n roll, he seems kinda soft and lacking in confidence, and he has not performed like a star player deserving of a max contract

 

[fishonjazz]

In sum, the conclusion that no one has cap space next season so our cap space is valueless is ludicrous.

Plus, if no one has cap space next year wouldnt that make our space more valueable?

 

[BTP]

Can you tell me why you think we should pay hayward max money without saying dumb crap like "we have to spend the money anyway" or "there is no one else to spend the money on"

Because he has affiliation with this franchise, he doesn't hurt long term flexibility and he's potentially a long term piece.

So since this year is an abberation and has turned into a mess, you think we should be active and get involved in the mess by paying through the nose for an average player instead of wait to spend big during a free agent year that isnt a mess?

Smart

Because of the age range that's available. It makes less sense to pursue guys who'll be too old to contribute to a contention window. That way you'd have to specifically target RFAs in that age range. UFAs below 26 are rare.

2 main prospect players are in their contract years. The Jazz are going to need salary cap. I think if the Jazz keep Gordon and Burks performs well, he will demand a salary that Jazz will not match and he will be a goner. As for Kanter, if he does not jump this year, I think he is a trade asset in the end of the season in the eyes of the FO. If they don't match Hornets' offer, they are going to have to deal with a thrilling pace of signing one or two starter-capable sized forwards that will aid the young roster in the long run. There is still place in the rotation to stretch the floor and I think Jazz need more 3 pt shooters on the team to become whatever Snyder and Lindsey have on their minds for the team to become which is hopefully nothing lesser than the next ****ing Spurs baby!

They have enough cap space to retain both Burks and Kanter given next year's market after this season's crazyness.
Also there's the possibility to use them in trades.

I have orlando will have cap space. There is your one team you asked for and thats all it takes.

And before you say "orlando already has shooting guards"..... there is no way you can know what happens next year.

Maybe olidipo has a career ending injury.

Maybe burks blows up and turns into a star and orlandos player look bad so they decide to offer burks the max.


Thats the thing...... you dont know the future or who or what we might need this money for.

Whay we DO KNOW is that hayward has not played like a star player that should get the max
Its really that simple

Tell me a team that needs a SG that fits their window that's not dependent on an urgent need because of a career ending injury.
Orlando will target shooting. They've shown that by going after Frye and Ben Gordon. Burks is more slashing than shooting.

Thats pretty vague.
We are not going to be in contention in the next 4 years with hayward as our max guy

Yes. We're working to get there, because other players like Exum have to be developed. But feel free to drink some cool aid and dream about fighting for a playoff spot anytime soon.

 

[Coach Ellis]

I agree kinda but feel paul george is overpaid a little too

One good thing about Hayward's contract offer is that it's a 3-4 year deal. It's not the 5 year max. If Hayward improves under Snyder and becomes a 20-5-5 guy who does all the little things that a glue guy does. . . then the Jazz will be happy that they matched. The key is Exum. If he becomes the franchise player they think he's capable of, then they need guys like Favors, Hayward and even Burks/Burke surrounding and supporting him.

My guess is that this team is all about building around Dante Exum from this point forward. If Hayward helps in that process. . . they'll keep him for as long as they can. Considering the improvements DeMarre Carroll made under Snyder in one season, I'm hopeful that all of the young guys (including Hayward) take big steps up. If not so the are legit NBA starters, then at least so they're better assets to trade for a star if/when one comes available.

 

[sirkickyass]

The provision has nothing to do with the salaries of 1st round picks. The first year of an offer sheet to a restricted free agent with less than 3 years of service time (early bird, as opposed to Larry Bird free agent) can only be for up to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. The second year can contain a raise up to 4.1% of the first year salary. The third and possible fourth year can be up to any amount such that the average salary over the whole contract is not more than the signing team's available cap space. Structuring contracts this way allows teams to match the offer using cap space, the non-taxpayer mid-level exception or the Early Bird exception (the team does not have Bird Rights, since the player hasn't been in the league for 3 seasons).

LINK

What about the Nick Collison precedent where putting the signing bonus all into the first year's cap space allows teams to structure deals to be tremendously front-loaded?

See: https://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/22025/inside-collisons-unique-contract-extension

To the best of my knowledge this did not change with the most recent CBA. Sounds to me like this is the kind of structure PKM is actually hoping for.

 

[Stifle Tower]

What about the Nick Collison precedent where putting the signing bonus all into the first year's cap space allows teams to structure deals to be tremendously front-loaded?

See: https://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/22025/inside-collisons-unique-contract-extension

To the best of my knowledge this did not change with the most recent CBA. Sounds to me like this is the kind of structure PKM is actually hoping for.

Wow, great find.
I admit I've read quite a bit of the "Bible" on the cap (Larry Coon's page) and did not realize there was this loophole. Wonder if this can be done with Kanter or Burks since they are eligible for extensions now.

 

[BTP]

As his attempts (and years in the league) have increased, so have his percentages

Steph Curry per 36(makes, attempts,pct): 3.3 7.8 .424
Bradley Beal:2.0 4.9 .402
Klay Thompson:2.8 6.7 .417 <- he's also restricted next year.
Alec Burks:0.8 2.3 .350

This is the worst kind of "analysis." You started with the conclusion and then worked backwards to try and eliminate possibilities.

The reality is that next summer is the Kevin Love summer and teams are operating under the assumption that the cap will rise to close to $68 million for 2015-2016. This means lots of teams are putting themselves in the position to either have max cap room under that new cap number or to get there somewhat easily.

That means teams like the Blazers that you cite a $56.5 million cap hold for are much closer to max cap than you're letting on. Even a team like OKC will only have a cap figure of $51.4 and have $17 million in cap room basically just because Kendrick Perkins finally comes off the books and the only guy they have due for an extension is Reggie Jackson. Being at all forward thinking it's not hard to imagine OKC generating max cap room while being able to keep all their guys (with maybe Nick Collison excepted).

Some teams, like the Kings, have cap sheets so clear that they could theoretically max TWO guys next offseason. The Celtics might be able to max THREE if they play their cards right.

In sum, the conclusion that no one has cap space next season so our cap space is valueless is ludicrous.

They could(prolly shouldn't). But still there's 20 free agents on 10 teams, instead of 10 free agents on 15 teams.

Blazers:
Robin Lopez $9.2M
LaMarcus Aldridge $16.8M
Dorell Wright $4.1M
Joel Freeland $5.7M
Wesley Matthews $10.9M
Victor Claver $2.6M
Will Barton $1.2M
T-Rob $4.6M+ don't know how its being calculated when a team option is declined during rookie contracts.

salaries:
Batum 12.2M
Lillard 4.2M
McCollum 2.5M
Leonard 3.0M

Add at least 1 more min contract to fill min roster spots. $0.5M

This results in a cap hold of $77.5M before you start renouncing rights to certain players, sign them to new contracts and stuff. Figure out yourself.

OKC:

Kevin Durant $20.2M
Russell Westbrook $16.7M
Serge Ibaka $12.4M
Jeremy Lamb $3.0M
Steven Adams $2.3M
Mitch McGary $1,4M
Andre Roberson $1.2M
Perry Jones III $2.0M
Josh Huestis $1M

$60.2M guaranteed contracts

cap holds:
Kendrick Perkins $14.1M
Reggie Jackson $5.5M
Nick Collison $4.3M

All numbers via basketballinsiders.com and storytellerscontracts.info

Now figure out how flexible they're going to be not using exceptions and staying over the cap.

I agree kinda but feel paul george is overpaid a little too

Yeah this shows again a point for which I called out in the past and you said I misinterpreted your statements. You focus only on offense and individual plays.
#defensewinschampionships