Post Your Jazz Rotation

[Handlogten's Heros]

I just struggle to see a lot of high upside in the deal. There are a couple hypothetical scenarios ranging from "he is what he has appeared to be recently." This becomes the empty calories and a complete space-occupying and space-sucking trade.
The other is that he rehabs his value. This is where people hypothetically would say to trade him, but if his value increases, so does our belief that we should keep him and everyone gets dysphoric at the thought of moving him. But, ultimately, see #1 where it's a less-than-ideal space occupation and distribution. The most ideal is that he quickly rehabs value and we are able to move him. Or if you say he's so good that we see him as a core piece next to Lauri.

I don't think they acquired him to flip him. I think its to keep him and if he plays well... as you've mentioned... no one will want to move him. Its just kind of an expensive "meh". The most reasonable best case scenario is he is good and we keep him. Will depend on his shot falling again and staying healthy.


there is one possible situation that pushes his value to a point where we move him... its not fun though. Say we have a frontcourt injury to Lauri or Walker for 30 games or so... and he plays like the 20/10 JC... simultaneously Hendricks gets more PT and shows he's ready sooner than later. You might get an offer you bite on in that situation.

I just think if the idea was to get some pieces to trade that a contract like Bruce Brown's is a better route. Short term money with options on a player that is easier to fit. If you fail at one of those moves, and you can't close the deal with Reaves... then you circle back to Collins or a short term salary dump like Oladipo for some seconds.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I agree with basically all of this, except I was more excited about Collins at the 5 before I looked at his numbers there, and he was really bad as a 5. He can really only defend at the 4.

I think Collins has the most value as a backup / emergency replacement for Lauri, but you don't pay a guy that much to do that.

I hope Hardy proves me wrong and figures out a way to make it all work.

At the 5 you just outscore your opponent instead of worrying too much about defense... so that's maybe how it works... a stretchy rim protector like Lauri or Taylor (if he develops) could be what unlocks that.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Collins is a reclamation project who holds value as a contract for bigger trades.

It will pretty easy to return his numbers to a better level.

In a bigger trade generally the salary being shorter is preferred. There is also the possibility of an injury and the deal becomes a millstone instead of valuable trade fodder.

I understand the deal... just think the upside is a bit lower than the risk and that there were better/higher uses of that space you kick the tires on first.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

In a bigger trade generally the salary being shorter is preferred. There is also the possibility of an injury and the deal becomes a millstone instead of valuable trade fodder.

I understand the deal... just think the upside is a bit lower than the risk and that there were better/higher uses of that space you kick the tires on first.

It gets shorter ever year

 

[infection]

I don't think they acquired him to flip him. I think its to keep him and if he plays well... as you've mentioned... no one will want to move him. Its just kind of an expensive "meh". The most reasonable best case scenario is he is good and we keep him. Will depend on his shot falling again and staying healthy.


there is one possible situation that pushes his value to a point where we move him... its not fun though. Say we have a frontcourt injury to Lauri or Walker for 30 games or so... and he plays like the 20/10 JC... simultaneously Hendricks gets more PT and shows he's ready sooner than later. You might get an offer you bite on in that situation.

I just think if the idea was to get some pieces to trade that a contract like Bruce Brown's is a better route. Short term money with options on a player that is easier to fit. If you fail at one of those moves, and you can't close the deal with Reaves... then you circle back to Collins or a short term salary dump like Oladipo for some seconds.

The thing that bugs me the most is that it's not a move you can back out of. Meaning the money is large enough that if it's not working out, it's too much and it's too long. If it's not working out on the floor, it's not really a guy you can move to a small part of the rotation. You're on the hook for the money, the years, and the minutes.

Basically, I feel like we just got a $30k bonus and we went and threw it into a 5 year CD at 2.5%.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

There is 0 risk in the Collins deal, don't be ridiculous. Every year it will increase value as contracts get bigger and bigger. It's going to be a good trade, the question is how good.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

At the 5 you just outscore your opponent instead of worrying too much about defense... so that's maybe how it works... a stretchy rim protector like Lauri or Taylor (if he develops) could be what unlocks that.

Good point. Collins never played at the 5 with anybody nearly as good as Lauri.

 

[infection]

There is 0 risk in the Collins deal, don't be ridiculous. Every year it will increase value as contracts get bigger and bigger. It's going to be a good trade, the question is how good.

It's not a question of being a risky trade. It's a question of being an opportunity cost trade.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It gets shorter ever year

There is 0 risk in the Collins deal, don't be ridiculous. Every year it will increase value as contracts get bigger and bigger. It's going to be a good trade, the question is how good.

There is risk in every contract lol. On a 3 year deal with 80M left... there is certainly risk. Dude has a knee injury and you are stuck with that contract. Dude continues to shoot low 30s on threes and he becomes a tweener. He also has a player option on the last year of the deal. Those only get exercised when things have gone worse than hoped for.

Maybe injury is like a 5-10% smallish risk and the shooting is another 5-10% outcome... but those situations outweigh the reasonable upside outcomes imo. You also acquired a contract and player that requires some planning around vs. signing a lower tiered guy to a shorter contract that you can just do what is best for the team and the guy can fall in line or bounce.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It's not a question of being a risky trade. It's a question of being an opportunity cost trade.

Its both.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It's not a question of being a risky trade. It's a question of being an opportunity cost trade.

Adding to my thought on its both... the player option neuters some of the upside while simultaneously adding to the risk.

He's a talented guy but not as flexible of a fit as some other options.

 

[HermanG]

Jalen and DFS are as much 3s as they are 4s. My issue is not how we use Lauri. My issue is the things you want the frontcourt partner to have with Lauri and Walker are shooting and defense. You can find someone better at those things and cheaper than JC. JC provides value in switchy small ball lineups so I like that... I think its easier to find the things you want next to Lauri and Walker (or many players) in a SF. Its part of the reason the PF like JC player type has fallen off.

I wouldn't have wanted Kuzma or Collins really. Would prefer a guy like Grant, DFS, McDaniels... I think Hendricks can be that dude and hopefully it doesn't take too long.

I think Lauri has distinct advantages at either forward spot and lets be honest... he will be at the top of every scouting report so he will draw the best defender regardless of who is next to him. I guess its more about fit with Walker than Lauri... since Lauri fits everything. I can see JC/Lauri bench frontcourt at the 4/5 being devastating offensively so there is value there... I just hope John can add value to the starting units and doesn't cramp the spacing for the guards and Kessler.

Im not saying everyone is misplacing Lauri. You certainly arent one of them.

As you said, shooting and defense are the key traits we need from the 3rd FC guy. Collins can offer that and came on a discount, albeit the opportunity cost is obvious.

You know my preference was OG, but the difference in cost makes Collins a better value pick. DFS also would have been better but again much more expensive.