I totally dig your analyses 99% of the time, but I might find difference with you here. I think Favors should start. I've had different opinions about whom he should displace, but, for me, he's there. I think plenty of his minutes should be ranged against the opposing teams' second units, but he adds an indefensible athleticism and solid rim protection that was sorely lacking last year.
I might even make the case that, for similar reasons, Evans should start. He'd be the 5th option on offense, and has shown signs of being a decent to good team defender.
Harris/Watson
Hayward/CJ/Burks/Bell
Evans/Howard/Hayward/CJ/Millsap
Favors/Millsap
Jefferson/Kanter/Okur