Flu normally declines in March-April. However, I agree there are probably cases of covid19 diagnosed as flu, and vice-versa.
Rational CoViD-19 Discussion Thread: Science vs. Politics
- Thread starter babe
- Start date
Flu normally declines in March-April. However, I agree there are probably cases of covid19 diagnosed as flu, and vice-versa.
Normal incidence stats have some degree of symmetry on the rates as they rise then fall. If you see an abnormal pattern, it's reasonable to explore or study or research for an explanation.
I'm have no doubts that without a diagnostic test, between illnesses sharing some significant common symptoms our guesses will normally distribute with some equal trends for wrong guesses one way or the other,
If, without some reason, all the "guesses" go the same way, I suppose it may be more popular to have the one getting the attributions...… but it is actually a perverse incentive existing in more doctors wanting to plump the charges or get a gov payout for the "right" attribution, to choose to call it something that pays better. No doubt this is some trend in the covid stats, pretty hard to evaluate without authority to check the records and test the former patients for antibodies. But a serious epidemiologist doing a competent research project would do something capable of quantifying the behavior/reports. The fact that our gov will not fund such research is a proof of a deliberate political intent to maintain a falsehood.
for whatever reason.
I'm have no doubts that without a diagnostic test, between illnesses sharing some significant common symptoms our guesses will normally distribute with some equal trends for wrong guesses one way or the other,
If, without some reason, all the "guesses" go the same way, I suppose it may be more popular to have the one getting the attributions...… but it is actually a perverse incentive existing in more doctors wanting to plump the charges or get a gov payout for the "right" attribution, to choose to call it something that pays better. No doubt this is some trend in the covid stats, pretty hard to evaluate without authority to check the records and test the former patients for antibodies. But a serious epidemiologist doing a competent research project would do something capable of quantifying the behavior/reports. The fact that our gov will not fund such research is a proof of a deliberate political intent to maintain a falsehood.
for whatever reason.
Not if they are unknown and highly contagious. You'd expect a large degree of left-skewing.
It's not. The difference is that we don't spend 5 trillion dollars and shut down the country for the flu.
Flu has not killed as many people over any two consecutive years in the past 20 as covid19 has in the past two months.
fishonjazz
Well-Known Member
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
There are other differences. The entire world (not just the US) is recognizing that this isn't the flu.
This is killing way more people in the world than the flu does in any year (and it's only been around for a few months rather than a year) and that's even with the measures that have been employed.
There is no vaccine for covid19.
Those are a few off the top of my head. I'm sure there are more differences.
Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
No fear mongers please.
Covid is changing pretty rapidly, some say "mutating" into strains that survive better somehow. But the severity of the disease is also changing. Less lethal, more survivable.
I'm not being rational about this anymore. Seriously, there is no basis for any rational analysis here. We are getting too many fake victims, no real scrutiny goes into the numbers we're getting.
The FDA renewed warnings against non-patentable treatments. Some say Fauci and Gates are invested in the leading vaccine development. Some are saying we will be issued vaccination papers necessary to get access to gas pumps and groceries.
The idea of governments using mass pathogens to control populations is as old as Lucifer. Didn't want to see it this way. Wanted to believe the science. Just can't, not anymore.
The fact with this virus is that for anything that is genetically derived to have this high a "binding coefficient" , it must follow that it will naturally degrade over time and become more of a regular sort of illness.
For any virus to survive as a pathogen over a long period of time, or recur regularly or seasonally, with such lethality as we were told this has, is a statistical anomaly. What it's called in statistics is "Regression to the Mean", a kind of expectation that humans will survive on some genetic success formula, and the disease will mellow out to something we can survive if we are healthy.
Covid is changing pretty rapidly, some say "mutating" into strains that survive better somehow. But the severity of the disease is also changing. Less lethal, more survivable.
I'm not being rational about this anymore. Seriously, there is no basis for any rational analysis here. We are getting too many fake victims, no real scrutiny goes into the numbers we're getting.
The FDA renewed warnings against non-patentable treatments. Some say Fauci and Gates are invested in the leading vaccine development. Some are saying we will be issued vaccination papers necessary to get access to gas pumps and groceries.
The idea of governments using mass pathogens to control populations is as old as Lucifer. Didn't want to see it this way. Wanted to believe the science. Just can't, not anymore.
The fact with this virus is that for anything that is genetically derived to have this high a "binding coefficient" , it must follow that it will naturally degrade over time and become more of a regular sort of illness.
For any virus to survive as a pathogen over a long period of time, or recur regularly or seasonally, with such lethality as we were told this has, is a statistical anomaly. What it's called in statistics is "Regression to the Mean", a kind of expectation that humans will survive on some genetic success formula, and the disease will mellow out to something we can survive if we are healthy.
Well, you held out longer than I would have guessed.
Do you have any reasonable evidence of the virus changing? I've yet to see proof of that although it's seems possible and even likely.
All I have evidence of is my cows are still having calves.... everything else has to just sorta steam outta the top of my head.
Looking at the remarks on Sweden, I can only wonder. Seems like they did OK for a while without a shutdown..... who knows..... lots of people in the hot tubs while the cold weather lasted. Now.... who knows..... they're walking in the streets and smiling, if not coughing. Maybe just a change in social activities here.....
But if "herd immunity" is going to be a long-range hope, I would have guessed they're over that critical mass of immune people.... which is often about 60% of the population where the transmittal really drops off.
Since it doesn't look like "herd immunity" really kicked in, my next wonder is why..... and a rapidly changing virus could do that. dunno.
Plus, early on, there were quite a few hot shot PCR eggheads with more machines than they really needed for other work. All kinds of stuff about different strains and tracking them across the world. With two major varieties in play by mid January, and assuming the first showed up in December, we should have a monthly doubling or better in strains showing up..... over 50 by now if not a zillion. Most strains would just die out because of some failure caused by the mutation, some might think. Most new strains would likely be less concerning because the properties that make this so fearsome are statistically improbable to begin with, and any alterations would reduce the effectiveness.....
bs, maybe.
nice to have someone to talk to besides cows.
Jonah
Well-Known Member
Sweden is still nowhere close to herd immunity. At most they’re at about 20 percent in Stockholm which has been the hardest hit city.
I know nothing. Extrapolation from a few inane news blips. I thought they were not doing anything at all to slow it down. With 90% undiagnosed non symptomatic spreaders, and maybe two weeks each on the prowl, it should have gotten to everybody inside three weeks..... Making it news that Sweden is now getting a new spike, what gives.
Because herd immunity never kicks in absent an intensive vaccination program.