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Reality Bites: 52% Chance Jazz Pick 5th or Worse

Ellipse

Ellipse

Well-Known Member
As the 4th seed in the lottery, the Jazz have a 38% chance of moving up, a 10% chance of picking 4th, and a 52% chance of picking 5th, 6th, or 7th.

Have a good day.
 
We have an 83% chance of getting a Top 5 pick.
I don't think we can ask for much more than that this year.
The front office had to eviscerate the bench, give real minutes to Richard Jefferson, keep Corbin as coach and run the offense through Hayward just to achieve that much.
 
Catchall said:
We have an 83% chance of getting a Top 5 pick.
I don't think we can ask for much more than that this year.
The front office had to eviscerate the bench, give real minutes to Richard Jefferson, keep Corbin as coach and run the offense through Hayward just to achieve that much.
Click to expand...

Fair enough. That explains Corbin and the "Kanter the scapegoat" parody.
 
SNL_1350_09_Debbie_Downer.png
 
Don't worry. We'll finish T3rd and slide up on ping pong night. Done and done.

We all know Jabari is a Jazzman in 2014-2015.
 
Catchall said:
We have an 83% chance of getting a Top 5 pick.
I don't think we can ask for much more than that this year.
The front office had to eviscerate the bench, give real minutes to Richard Jefferson, keep Corbin as coach and run the offense through Hayward just to achieve that much.
Click to expand...

Yeah, if you asked anyone before the season who were rooting for the tank that hte Jazz would get a top 5 pick, most people would have said that was really optimistic. Heck if Parker declares I'll be ok with a top 6 pick, which I think the Jazz have a 98.something% chance of getting.
 
So we have a 48% chance of picking in the top 4?

I like those changes.

PS, I'll be sure to neg you when the Jazz draft better than 5th.

Sent from the JazzFanz app
 
What is on the line tomorrow?

What is on the line the last week of the season?

Probability of getting a top 4 pick
.....Tied for 3rd = 59%
---- Tied for 4th = 38%
......difference = 20%

------------------------------------

Probability of getting a top 5 pick
......Tied for 3rd = 89%
......Tied for 4th = 69%
......difference = 20%
 
Some people just like to be miserable I guess

48% chance of 4th or better. Cheers mate.
 
silesian said:
What is on the line the last week of the season?

Probability of getting a top 4 pick
.....Tied for 3rd = 59%
---- Tied for 4th = 38%
......difference = 20%

------------------------------------

Probability of getting a top 5 pick
......Tied for 3rd = 89%
......Tied for 4th = 69%
......difference = 20%
Click to expand...

I srsly wanna kill Trey for that shot against Orlando.
 
Ellipse said:
As the 4th seed in the lottery, the Jazz have a 38% chance of moving up, a 10% chance of picking 4th, and a 52% chance of picking 5th, 6th, or 7th.

Have a good day.
Click to expand...

AS the 6th seed, they had a 21.5% chance of moving into the top 3 and a 78.5% chance of finishing 6th-9th (and 0% chance at #5 or #6). So yes, I love the fact the Jazz lost 3 key games while Boston and LA won.

If Jabari comes out, then some combination of Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Exum, Randle and Smart are the likely top-6 picks. I'd gladly take any of those players. Even if three teams were to jump over Utah (1.2% chance), the Jazz would have to "settle" for a player like Gordon, Vonleh, etc. Those would be my top-8, although I'm sure others might put in players like Ennis or Harris at 7/8. I don't partly because of "need." Not a clear enough separation in terms of BPA and Gordon or Vonleh would fill obvious holes. Looking at this draft, I think it was critical for Jazz to get top-8 - and they will.
 
spycam1 said:
I srsly wanna kill Trey for that shot against Orlando.
Click to expand...

Or thank the Jazz for collapsing against so many other teams. Jazz have the 2nd worst record since the all-star break. Even Boston and LA won a couple of games by mistake to damage their tanks. Would be unfortunate to win against Minnesota, so I have my fingers crossed. But if you were to tell me pre-season the Jazz would finish no worse than tied for 5th, I would have been overjoyed. I expected a 30-35 win season, with the Jazz getting a pick in the 10-13 range.
 
Core4 said:
Or thank the Jazz for collapsing against so many other teams. Jazz have the 2nd worst record since the all-star break. Even Boston and LA won a couple of games by mistake to damage their tanks. Would be unfortunate to win against Minnesota, so I have my fingers crossed. But if you were to tell me pre-season the Jazz would finish no worse than tied for 5th, I would have been overjoyed. I expected a 30-35 win season, with the Jazz getting a pick in the 10-13 range.
Click to expand...

spy agrees with all of what you are saying...... but he still thinks it would have been nice to lose to Orlando. As do i.
 
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