Revise Restricted Free Agent Rules!

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NBA roster - 15 players x 30 teams. Total players = 450. Total starters = 150. Guys have to play both offense and defense. It's much easier to field a roster full of 1st round picks because there's only two rounds.

NFL roster - 53 players x 32 teams. Total players = 1,696. Total starters = 704. Guys play either offense or defense, but not both. And yet the vast majority of superstar players are 1st round picks.

The management of the two sports just aren't comparable.

Outside of getting a star QB, top 5 picks in the NFL aren't nearly as valuable as they are in the NBA, and there's almost never a time where a top 20 pick in the NFL isn't worth exponentially more than a top 20 NBA pick.

I agree with your posts, but I would just change the bolded to say "the management of the two sports aren't easily comparable."

But, that's where Cy and DD want to break things down: into an easy comparison.

 

[Coach Ellis]

.... please don't try to add any nuance to this discussion... a first-round pick is a first-round pick... nuff said.

I completely agree with your take, but I think that the nuances are important. Would I rather have the #1 overall pick in the nba or the nfl? It depends on if a franchise QB is available. Otherwise, I think the top 5 picks trend to the NBA. After that though, I'd rather have an NFL pick than an equal NBA pick every time.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Top TE: Graham - 3rd round pick
Top CB: Sherman - 5th round pick
Top RB: Charles - 3rd round pick (good rb can be found every round)

Off the top of my head top players at their position this past year who aren't 1st round picks.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

1st rounders are more valuable in the NBA because you only have 2 picks. You lose it, you only have 1 pretty crappy pick.

NFL you lose the 1st, still have 6 other good picks.

It's relative value.

 

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The Chicago Bulls would be sunk without Tony Snell

 

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It's relative value.

Relative to what, homie? srs question.

Stop using a common measuring stick.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The Chicago Bulls would be sunk without Tony Snell

He is a rotation player for them that plays minutes. 3 years from now he could be a starter and still be on a very valuable rookie contract.

 

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He is a rotation player for them that plays minutes. 3 years from now he could be a starter and still be on a very valuable rookie contract.

By contrast, NFL players are lucky to last into their 4th year. WHICH MEANS.................??????????????

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

By contrast, NFL players are lucky to last into their 4th year. WHICH MEANS.................??????????????

That those later rounds picks are important to replace players.

 

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you are good at back-peddling.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Looked at the Seahawks depth chart, out of their starters (according to ESPN) on offense and defense, only 3 are 1st round picks.

 

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^still not getting it.


You might have been onto something when you said "relative value"... but you didn't follow through. Lazy, right?

 

[Stifle Tower]

1st rounders are more valuable in the NBA because you only have 2 picks. You lose it, you only have 1 pretty crappy pick.

NFL you lose the 1st, still have 6 other good picks.

It's relative value.

I think we're also comparing apples to oranges. I can agree with both huge and Cy on different aspects of their arguments. Certainly, in the NFL you have a bigger pool of players. A roster is never going to consist of primarily first-round picks and a few scrubs and older veterans (who may or may not have been high picks ten years ago).

Granted, there are stars in the middle of every NFL draft. And there are stars in the 2nd round of every NBA draft. Proportionally, it may be about the same. If you calculate 2 players drafted vs. a 15 player roster in the NBA and 7 players drafted vs. a 53-man roster in the NFL, that means a team is potentially drafting 13% of their roster each season. And I'd guess about the same number of players stick. Second-rounders rarely make NBA teams (or are gone after 1-2 years). And the same holds true for players in Rds 5-7 of the NFL draft.

Of course you also have to factor in substitutions. In the NFL, a lot of starters on both sides of the ball play every snap. That doesn't happen in the NBA; no one plays all 48 mins.

In the end, I'd say it's much more critical to get picks right in the 1st round of the NBA. One pick is the equivalent of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd selection in the NFL. In the NFL, you can draft 3 CB's, for example, and hope one turns out to be a starter. Can't do that in the NBA.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

^still not getting it.


You might have been onto something when you said "relative value"... but you didn't follow through. Lazy, right?

Probably because I already explained it?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I think we're also comparing apples to oranges. I can agree with both huge and Cy on different aspects of their arguments. Certainly, in the NFL you have a bigger pool of players. A roster is never going to consist of primarily first-round picks and a few scrubs and older veterans (who may or may not have been high picks ten years ago).

Granted, there are stars in the middle of every NFL draft. And there are stars in the 2nd round of every NBA draft. Proportionally, it may be about the same. If you calculate 2 players drafted vs. a 15 player roster in the NBA and 7 players drafted vs. a 53-man roster in the NFL, that means a team is potentially drafting 13% of their roster each season. And I'd guess about the same number of players stick. Second-rounders rarely make NBA teams (or are gone after 1-2 years). And the same holds true for players in Rds 5-7 of the NFL draft.

Of course you also have to factor in substitutions. In the NFL, a lot of starters on both sides of the ball play every snap. That doesn't happen in the NBA; no one plays all 48 mins.

In the end, I'd say it's much more critical to get picks right in the 1st round of the NBA. One pick is the equivalent of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd selection in the NFL. In the NFL, you can draft 3 CB's, for example, and hope one turns out to be a starter. Can't do that in the NBA.

How many 2nd round "stars" (using that term very loosely) are there in the NBA right now?

Millsap
Parsons
Ginobili
Matthews

Struggling to think of names past that. There are players who are the best at their position in the entire NFL who aren't 1st round picks. You can't say that about any 2nd round pick in the NBA right now.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

I'm not playing that crap. This over-simplifies things waaaaay too much.

For example, what's the difference in value from an NBA pick near the top of the first round versus one near the bottom of the first round? What's the difference in value between an NFL pick near the top of the first round versus one near the bottom of the first round?

Next, let's discuss the differences between staffing NBA team and an NFL team such that they can be consistent within a coaching philosophy.



Or, we can get diverted to your trash question.

Wow, this post and you're claiming my simple question is trash. Go home, son, you fail.

First round in the NBA is the first half of the draft. NFL is around the first eighth or so. Add roster size and the vast MAJORITY of NBA players are first round picks. In that case, the first round NBA picks are more valuable.

If you want to add half the NFL draft to coincide with the full first round of the NBA draft, the last half of the NFL would yield a better team than second round NBA picks. In that scenario, first round NBA picks are more valuable.

If you want to drop the NBA first round to the picks that coincide with the NFL, the first 7 picks, then the first seven picks of the NBA draft are more valuable than the first round of the NFL draft.



The top players in the NBA influence their team success more than the top players in the NFL, therefore the picks they're selected at are far more valuable than fit into a coaching philosophy. So much so that players selected a third of the way through the NBA draft are more valuable than the players in, say, the first sixth of the NFL draft. You fit your coaching philosophy to match the players in the NBA. A first round pick in the NBA is more valuable than a first round pick in the NFL.

 

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Matthews isn't a second-round pick.

Get back to me when you've tried to do some deep thinking about this.

Here's a start: how many free-agents was Seattle able to sign because of the talent they drafted in the first round (salary re-distribution)?

 

[Coach Ellis]

Outside of running back (which isn't valued in football as much as casual fans think) the other examples you gave had very specific reasons why they were available later. Graham only played one year of college football and had mediocre stats to support being picked at all. It would be the equivalent of an NBA team drafting Terrell Owens in the 2nd round because he was an elite athlete. Richard Sherman is the best example that you gave, but you also didn't include the fact that he completely switched positions late in his college career AND had to recover from a serious knee injury. Those are exactly the kinds of reasons guys like that fall. The bigger roster/draft size and need for more starters is why teams take chances like that.

 

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Wow, this post and you're claiming my simple question is trash. Go home, son, you fail.

First round in the NBA is the first half of the draft. NFL is around the first eighth or so. Add roster size and the vast MAJORITY of NBA players are first round picks. In that case, the first round NBA picks are more valuable.

If you want to add half the NFL draft to coincide with the full first round of the NBA draft, the last half of the NFL would yield a better team than second round NBA picks. In that scenario, first round NBA picks are more valuable.

If you want to drop the NBA first round to the picks that coincide with the NFL, the first 7 picks, then the first seven picks of the NBA draft are more valuable than the first round of the NFL draft.



The top players in the NBA influence their team success more than the top players in the NFL, therefore the picks they're selected at are far more valuable than fit into a coaching philosophy. So much so that players selected a third of the way through the NBA draft are more valuable than the players in, say, the first sixth of the NFL draft. You fit your coaching philosophy to match the players in the NBA. A first round pick in the NBA is more valuable than a first round pick in the NFL.

I disagree. Your metrics are too common-sensical, i.e. they aren't specific enough to either sport to have much traction. Good math though, son! Go home now.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

I disagree. Your metrics are too common-sensical, i.e. they aren't specific enough to either sport to have much traction. Good math though, son! Go home now.

Talent far outweighs salary differential in value of first round picks...