Depends on the time frame. The long term trend is still in motion. Next few days, weeks, or maybe months not so much. Breaking the 50 day moving average after a triple top is not a good sign, especially against the back drop of significant public participation. The dollar has got hit and commodities have been climbing higher and now predictable chatter about world wide food inflation should be sending gold to fresh new highs. When the correlation breaks down and an asset class doesn't do what it supposed to it is a huge red flag.
You have an 8% immediate downside risk to the 200 day moving average. As often does, the 200 day is right on the trendline from the 08 and last summer's lows. If that support is broken, you are looking at probably a 30% correction.
Be careful, certainty is the worst attribute one can internalize as a trader.
Personally, I think we bounce and rally off the 200 and rally back to some approximation of the most recent high. I believe the top will take longer than most think. Most are expecting a bursting of the bubble. But that is just a trading template going forward.
There is a case based on previous price action in other asset classes that result in large bubbles that gold could double here, however, the long term chart of gold is an absolute disaster from a technical analysis stand point. As of now, jury is still out. I suspect the easy money has been made for the gold bugs.
