He's right.
Stock Picks
- Thread starter Gyp Rosetti
- Start date
He's right.
Macro, sir. The reasoning is all over the news. An oversupply by the OPEC cartel and no cut of production for the foreseeable future. Simple market economics. Whether this has motives in respect to RIV, I don't care.
My initial inquiry here was in respect to making a speculative move not geo-political posturing.
Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
Right, but what you think is happening influences your timing. You don't want to be stuck in ETFs longer than you have to be. Oil could up 15% in a year or something, and you'll still lose 5% if it ever dips a significant amount in that timeframe before it rose again because ETFs don't climb out of holes well. Just go look at the crude oil chart and compare it to the oil ETFs between a relatively stable period like Jan 2012 - Jan 2014. You're out 10% just for playing the ETF game. If you were in 6 months ago, you would never get your money back even if oil went to $200. They don't just track well.
USO - the supposed best 1 share to 1 barrell tracker around - Jan 2012, $39; Jan 2014 , $33. 15% drop.
Crude oil ~ 2% drop Jan 2012-Jan 2014
Anyway, I do think you should be buying and I would start now with some upper crust oil company stocks and just keep buying periodically if they go down.
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Jerk gets a prius and all he can spew is alternative energy sources.
BTW, is anyone else playing this slight correction then push channel? The "interest rates might increase so let's finally correct but not really" play has been the most obvious play ever. It's getting close to being over, but I doubt any rate hike will do anything to derail this bull other than very short term. Any rate hike will be puny and meaningless, likely for several years. Demographics (world) and all the other factors against it here are way too strong for bonds to start competing again.
Maybe we should put together a Jazzfanz fund.
I don't do stocks.. Well, very rarely.
I am doing hard money lending with the following criteria;
- Maximum 30% LTV (actual value, not some ******** appraisal) against debt-free real estate.
- First Trust Deed
- I net fund everything. Meaning, I hold back an entire year of interest up front. This creates a 12 month prepayment penalty, if you will, as well as dramatically increases my effective IRR.
- charge no less than 14% interest.
Example:
I just loaned $500k on a piece of property that is worth (forreal) $2.5MM. I charged 18%. However I net funded the deal so I actually only came in with $410k.. But am receiving 18% interest on $500k.
I am doing a half dozen deals or so like this and it's way easier money than working for a living or playing the market.
I don't do stocks.. Well, very rarely.
I am doing hard money lending with the following criteria;
- Maximum 30% LTV (actual value, not some ******** appraisal) against debt-free real estate.
- First Trust Deed
- I net fund everything. Meaning, I hold back an entire year of interest up front. This creates a 12 month prepayment penalty, if you will, as well as dramatically increases my effective IRR.
- charge no less than 14% interest.
Example:
I just loaned $500k on a piece of property that is worth (forreal) $2.5MM. I charged 18%. However I net funded the deal so I actually only came in with $410k.. But am receiving 18% interest on $500k.
I am doing a half dozen deals or so like this and it's way easier money than working for a living or playing the market.
Not knowing anything about this... Are those good terms for the borrower and/or do they have a reason for taking sup-prime terms?
They are awful terms for the borrower. They have varied reasons as to why they are willing to pay abusive rates, but overall I don't get into it much as long as the criteria is covered.
There are situations where it is smart to do business with you.
You sure you're not my brother who lives in St. Georgr? That's pretty close to the terms he does, and no he doesn't punch a clock at a job, either. It's been years since he took a case as a lawyer, too.