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The 2024 Election Thread - Because It's Never Too Early to Feel Disappointed

It is a question of viability. Not viable = not alive. If it can't survive outside the womb it's not a separate life from the mother. Or so the argument goes.

My personal view is somewhere in between, so I'm not advocating 1 "side" or the other. I'm just playing devil's advocate.

Please any hard-core pro-abortionists correct me if I'm wrong or feel free to otherwise expound.
Fwiw I don't think there are any pro abortionists. I think everyone would prefer that no one ever need to have an abortion.
Pro choice people just understand that will never be the case. Even if you ban abortions they will still happen. They will just be way more dangerous and more gruesome.
 
Fwiw I don't think there are any pro abortionists. I think everyone would prefer that no one ever need to have an abortion.
Pro choice people just understand that will never be the case. Even if you ban abortions they will still happen. They will just be way more dangerous and more gruesome.
I'm not arguing with that. That's the main reason I think you can never outlaw them completely. I think there should be some restrictions, but they need to be legal and available when needed.
 
I do not believe that Republican leadership wants to outlaw abortions. They know it is what ties many people to their party. They just like to put on a show, like Texas just did. It will be declared unconstitutional, which then makes their base angry and more closely aligned with their party. The Texas law doesn't even provide an exception for health of the mother, as I understand it. Pro-life indeed.

I find it interesting that while many religious people believe life begins at conception, they have no problem disposing of their IVF fertilized eggs. Not all, though. My niece didn't feel good about it and had the facility put their other six up for adoption.

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The only way to get violence out of this is to do a half literal (the gun) and half figurative with an additional imaginary leap from socialism to supporters of socialism. It seems like work to go that far to find offence.
Actually, I find your reply to be a rather strained attempt to rationalize why I should not be appalled at that image, and that seems like a lot of work to go through just to erase the way I feel, my feelings being somehow unjustified. I’ll decide how I feel.

I regret providing you with my thoughts on the imagery of guns in American popular culture, and how it affects me personally, only to find this “misses the point entirely” reply on your part. If you cannot understand why some would find that image of Greene and a high powered weapon disturbing, then I really wasted my time in an effort to provide you some insight on my thoughts on the subject. I was open and honest, and I reject your effort to seemingly delegitimizing my reaction to that image and video.

To better understand the image of Marjorie Greene and a high powered rifle, we should understand the image and video plays to the anger and hatred of her followers toward those Americans she knows they feel are the enemies of America. In which case, you can substitute liberals for socialism, Democrats for socialism. Because, we can safely assume, I do believe, that some of her followers have no problem at all fantasizing themselves training such weapons, not on cars, but on the enemies of America as Trump and Greene see them. Which is NOT to say any would act such fantasies out, but it IS to say employing violent imagery to appeal to a base infected with anger and hate is reprehensible. It’s disgusting. It’s plays directly to the emotions of anger and hate. And what I am describing here is the larger context of Greene’s tweet that I believe you would prefer not to see. But that underlying dynamic is not lost on me, and is a reason I find the image and video disturbing.
 
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To better understand the image of Marjorie Greene and a high powered rifle, we should understand the image and video plays to the anger and hatred of her followers
Are you familiar with a concept called ‘the Perception Gap’? Roughly speaking it describes the difference between the values actually held by Republicans versus the values Democrats believe Republicans hold, and vice versa.

For instance, let’s say a researcher asked Republicans on a scale of 1-10 how much they loved trucks and got back an average of 6 out of 10. Then the researcher asked Democrats how they believed Republicans would answer the truck question, and the Democrats thought Republicans would answer the truck question with a 9 out of 10. The true value was 6 while the imagined value was 9. The Perception Gap among the polled Democrats on that question would be 3.

This metric is interesting because I believe it shows the true causes of America’s polarization. The more news you watch, the less you are able to see a realistic picture. Those who are highly informed on current events have been shown to on-average have statistically the most distorted, cartoony, wrong idea about the other political party’s followers.
fig3d.png


Engaging in political-centric social media correlates with being more wrong about the other political party’s followers.

v5.png

The correlation I find most interesting is the more time someone of the political left spends in college, the more wrong they become.

fig5c.png


we can safely assume, I do believe, that some of her followers have no problem at all fantasizing themselves training such weapons [on liberals] .., employing violent imagery to appeal to a base infected with anger and hate is reprehensible. It’s disgusting. It’s plays directly to the emotions of anger and hate. ... that underlying dynamic is not lost on me
This is the component to your first post that I was missing. This was the disconnect. You are correct in that I don’t see the 230,000 people in the northwest corner of Georgia who voted for MTG, roughly 75% of the population, through that lens. I freely admit that I prefer not to see a large group I’ve never met as a cesspool of “hate and anger” who secretly harbor desires of murdering people they disagree with politically. It could be naivety on my part. I’m open to changing my opinion if you have evidence as I have known some extremely hate-filled individuals.

Keeping in mind that you do seem to be in the high risk group of seeing people as a caricature, in that you resonate with the political group in opposition to MTG, do seem well informed on current events, and come across as well educated, what makes you perceive the people of northwest Georgia as a “base infected with hate and anger”? What makes you so sure you've got the intended target audience of this clip nailed down?
 
Are you familiar with a concept called ‘the Perception Gap’? Roughly speaking it describes the difference between the values actually held by Republicans versus the values Democrats believe Republicans hold, and vice versa.

For instance, let’s say a researcher asked Republicans on a scale of 1-10 how much they loved trucks and got back an average of 6 out of 10. Then the researcher asked Democrats how they believed Republicans would answer the truck question, and the Democrats thought Republicans would answer the truck question with a 9 out of 10. The true value was 6 while the imagined value was 9. The Perception Gap among the polled Democrats on that question would be 3.

This metric is interesting because I believe it shows the true causes of America’s polarization. The more news you watch, the less you are able to see a realistic picture. Those who are highly informed on current events have been shown to on-average have statistically the most distorted, cartoony, wrong idea about the other political party’s followers.
fig3d.png


Engaging in political-centric social media correlates with being more wrong about the other political party’s followers.

v5.png

The correlation I find most interesting is the more time someone of the political left spends in college, the more wrong they become.

fig5c.png



This is the component to your first post that I was missing. This was the disconnect. You are correct in that I don’t see the 230,000 people in the northwest corner of Georgia who voted for MTG, roughly 75% of the population, through that lens. I freely admit that I prefer not to see a large group I’ve never met as a cesspool of “hate and anger” who secretly harbor desires of murdering people they disagree with politically. It could be naivety on my part. I’m open to changing my opinion if you have evidence as I have known some extremely hate-filled individuals.

Keeping in mind that you do seem to be in the high risk group of seeing people as a caricature, in that you resonate with the political group in opposition to MTG, do seem well informed on current events, and come across as well educated, what makes you perceive the people of northwest Georgia as a “base infected with hate and anger”? What makes you so sure you've got the intended target audience of this clip nailed down?
Despite your inability to actually provide a reference, I found where you grabbed those graphs, and, I assume, your entire idea from. (The source tag at the bottom of the LAST graph gave it away.) I haven't done enough (any) investigation to determine whether the people behind it have a particular axe to grind (I don't like taking their own word for it in their bios.) The page itself looks professional, which, at least, is a plus.

 
Well, alrighty now….billboard in Georgia…



Of course, it is a misquote…


I don't think a Christian did that billboard. The words are from the old testament, the "joint heirs" from Romans /8:17 where Paul reasons Christians are the children of God and joint heirs, in some way sharing in the rule of the "Messiah", believed to be Jesus by Christians. BTW, that's called cultural appropriation nowadays. Declaring the covenant people of God to be themselves rather than Israelites..

The sacrilege would make most real Christians just totally go "This isn't right". Not even Trump himself would do that.

nah, the billboard was paid for by George Soros or some other damned devil. Or some totally crazed loon who thinks he's as good as God. But I'm repeating myself

Wouldn't be the first false flag billboard got up to make the opposition look daft.
 
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It isn't just the bottom figure. There is a reference in the lower left corner of every figure.
I'm sorry, I simply meant that I hadn't noticed it until the last one, I wasn't specifically accusing you of deliberately cropping it out of the other images.
 
Fwiw I don't think there are any pro abortionists. I think everyone would prefer that no one ever need to have an abortion.
Pro choice people just understand that will never be the case. Even if you ban abortions they will still happen. They will just be way more dangerous and more gruesome.

nah.

babes are worth more than frogs or sheep.

I know a law firm, I think it's P:ickins Coy, or something that sounds like that. They've got lawyers combing the country to change adoption laws to enable buyers to purchase babes in any trimester, and on up to age 21, from parents or brokers. I think our Prisons will also be selling their merchandise.

cheap labor is what its all about now.

Imelda Marcos had an early business along this idea, taking a cut on every filipino who worked abroad. She sold more laborers than she had shoes.
 
Yeah, it's three years away, but that's like two Covid timelines so not as far as you think.

Anyway, much like discussing 2024 draft prospects, it's hard to get a read on most things, but I'll make some early proclamations here that will stand in the hallowed files of JF forever:

- I believe Biden doesn't run for re-election. He'll be in his 80's and let's face it, the dude is old. Would rather see some new blood though I'd appoint Harris as an early frontrunner. And for the Bernie fans, he's even older than Biden. Wouldn't rule out someone like AOC given a push in his stead.

For the Republicans, if Trump decides to run which certainly seems to be the general feeling, he's probably a >99% favorite to win. Who's going to challenge him? Moderate R's won't even bother. I think you'll see some Kristi Noem/Desantis action but believe they're really just auditioning for his VP role (something tells me Pence won't be invited back to Mar-a-Lago).

What won't change? The election will really focus on 8-10 states like it always does. An enormous amount of distrust against elections, voter suppression, etc. will occur no matter who the winner is - and we'll get to hear about it every waking moment of our lives.

I'm not going to predict a winner yet - I couldn't base one of anything tangible right now as three years is a lifetime of things that could happen.
You're overlooking the obvious.....

Obama can run again, now.

And Hillary.

But it'll be 2028. We've got the technology.
 
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