The Biden Administration and All Things Politics

[Carbon13]

Ukraine exacerbated what was already in motion. But yeah thats horrific and heartbreaking.

The only obvious fix to solve inflation besides crushing demand through interest rates and ending QE is allowing more immigration to ease tight labor.

 

[fishonjazz]

If the Republicans pass a massive spending bill then it would cause inflation and the Republicans should take the blame. If a bipartisan effort passes a massive spending bill then the blame is bipartisan. When the Democrats pass one on a party line vote with no Republican support then the fault belongs to the Democrats. If Joe Biden issues an executive order to pay off a whole bunch of student loan debt then the Democrats will own that one too. Everyone should be thanking Manchin and Sinema for inflation being only 9.1% right now. As bad as things are, the Democrats tried really hard to make it even worse.

Why not just say “passing massive spending bills is what causes inflation”
Oh ya, we all know why.


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[Al-O-Meter]

View: https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1549724510945005569?s=21&t=8ebfHLZMyFusHhAVqLY1zA


“bUt InFlAtIOn AnD gAs!”

"...it depends on what [Russia] does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, et cetera."
-Joe Biden, January 19, 2022

In the best case, Biden projected weakness Putin thought he could take advantage of. In the worst case, Biden greenlit Putin's invasion.

 

[Bucknutz]

Ukraine exacerbated what was already in motion. But yeah thats horrific and heartbreaking.

The only obvious fix to solve inflation besides crushing demand through interest rates and ending QE is allowing more immigration to ease tight labor.

I’m not disagreeing with you but I do have concerns about immigration and who we are taking in. Texas and Arizona have been busing immigrants to NYC and DC where their Mayors are finding it to be a bit overwhelming.


View: https://twitter.com/tom_winter/status/1549404299888922630?s=21&t=9hzFyinu6Hhw97wPpGtZWQ



View: https://twitter.com/nbcwashington/status/1549385333506281479?s=21&t=9hzFyinu6Hhw97wPpGtZWQ


Many jobs that are needing to be filled have requirements that new immigrants will not be available to fill. Entry level jobs have been starting to be filled with automation.

The Robots Are Coming, Eventually. Will Automation Displace Half The World’s Workforce?

Roughly half of tech experts believe that artificial intelligence will displace half of the world's workforce within the next five

allwork.space

“According to The Brookings Institution, worker displacement will likely occur in the highest concentrations among low-wage, entry-level jobs. It is here where worry about widespread job displacement is warranted, as there is no guarantee that anyone will help these workers acquire the needed skills to find new jobs.”

The government has some major issues to figure out in finding a balance in skilled/unskilled immigrants, Social Welfare(UBI in the future), housing (corporate purchasing) and education (cost effective).

 

[LogGrad98]

I’m not disagreeing with you but I do have concerns about immigration and who we are taking in. Texas and Arizona have been busing immigrants to NYC and DC where their Mayors are finding it to be a bit overwhelming.


View: https://twitter.com/tom_winter/status/1549404299888922630?s=21&t=9hzFyinu6Hhw97wPpGtZWQ



View: https://twitter.com/nbcwashington/status/1549385333506281479?s=21&t=9hzFyinu6Hhw97wPpGtZWQ


Many jobs that are needing to be filled have requirements that new immigrants will not be available to fill. Entry level jobs have been starting to be filled with automation.

The Robots Are Coming, Eventually. Will Automation Displace Half The World’s Workforce?

Roughly half of tech experts believe that artificial intelligence will displace half of the world's workforce within the next five

allwork.space

“According to The Brookings Institution, worker displacement will likely occur in the highest concentrations among low-wage, entry-level jobs. It is here where worry about widespread job displacement is warranted, as there is no guarantee that anyone will help these workers acquire the needed skills to find new jobs.”

The government has some major issues to figure out in finding a balance in skilled/unskilled immigrants, Social Welfare(UBI in the future), housing (corporate purchasing) and education (cost effective).

I have a ton of jobs that immigrants could fill. I can teach nearly anyone to drive a forklift. But recently we had to go through and cut all of our temp workers that had immigration issues to be sure we are keeping up with the laws, even in California. If we could make it easier to get them documentation to be allowed to work I could literally put nearly 1000 people to work in the next 3 months. But as it is we struggle to find workers and therefore wages and costs are skyrocketing as we compete for the workers with proper documentation.

 

[The Thriller]

I have a ton of jobs that immigrants could fill. I can teach nearly anyone to drive a forklift. But recently we had to go through and cut all of our temp workers that had immigration issues to be sure we are keeping up with the laws, even in California. If we could make it easier to get them documentation to be allowed to work I could literally put nearly 1000 people to work in the next 3 months. But as it is we struggle to find workers and therefore wages and costs are skyrocketing as we compete for the workers with proper documentation.

So why don’t we make it easier for immigrants to work here? Especially right now with there being such a labor shortage? Is there a reason not based in nativism?

 

[LogGrad98]

So why don’t we make it easier for immigrants to work here? Especially right now with there being such a labor shortage? Is there a reason not based in nativism?

That is my point. I want it to be easier for them to get worker's visas or green cards or whatever they need. We could sponsor them but that is a huge cost as well, and there are limits on what kind of work we can sponsor as a company so we don't really do that.

 

[Bucknutz]

That is my point. I want it to be easier for them to get worker's visas or green cards or whatever they need. We could sponsor them but that is a huge cost as well, and there are limits on what kind of work we can sponsor as a company so we don't really do that.

What do these 1000 jobs pay? What experience is required? Where will they live and can they afford it in California? What social welfare do they need until they can make it on their own? How can they find these jobs once they arrive?

Just because there are jobs available, other dynamics are in play. I love the sponsorship/workers visa before immigrants come to have a plan in place. When there are 200k people (that we know of) crossing the boarder every month how can you plan to accommodate them?

We are talking about the population of West Virginia that have crossed (that we know of)this year. A lot have been sent back for different reasons but I worry about infrastructure to handle this migration.

 

[The Thriller]

That is my point. I want it to be easier for them to get worker's visas or green cards or whatever they need. We could sponsor them but that is a huge cost as well, and there are limits on what kind of work we can sponsor as a company so we don't really do that.

Right. I empathize with your position. So why aren’t state and federal governments working to make this easier? Is there a non-nativist reason? Or are Dems afraid of being labeled pro immigrant (and anti white nativist) and Republicans too far down the “the Spanish speaking brown horde is coming for your women and children” rabbit hole?

Cuz it seems that with a labor shortage (and aging workforce now that boomers are exiting the stage) that the obvious answer to keeping our economy humming would be to make it a lot easier for immigrants to come here. Right?

 

[LogGrad98]

What do these 1000 jobs pay? What experience is required? Where will they live and can they afford it in California? What social welfare do they need until they can make it on their own? How can they find these jobs once they arrive?

Just because there are jobs available, other dynamics are in play. I love the sponsorship/workers visa before immigrants come to have a plan in place. When there are 200k people (that we know of) crossing the boarder every month how can you plan to accommodate them?

We are talking about the population of West Virginia that have crossed (that we know of)this year. A lot have been sent back for different reasons but I worry about infrastructure to handle this migration.

They pay between $18 and $25 per hour. Well in excess of California minimum wage. So if all of these problems you list here are simply insurmountable, what happens to the companies looking for workers? Doesn't change the fact that we are still looking for workers, or that companies like Amazon are still offering $1000 signing bonuses for people. In the end what it means is higher costs that get passed along to the consumers. I guess that doesn't matter either, we all simply pay more.

Also the jobs I am talking about were already largely populated by immigrant workers that just couldn't get their paperwork in line for whatever reason. They are already here, now looking for work again, many of them now relying on social welfare programs where before they had jobs and didn't do so. This is not talking about running down to Guatamala or whatever and harvesting new workers to come across the border. We just had to let go nearly 600 people across the company when we already had a dearth of workers, to be in compliance with immigration worker laws. But those people are already here, and are now out of work. What now for them?

 

[fishonjazz]

They pay between $18 and $25 per hour. Well in excess of California minimum wage. So if all of these problems you list here are simply insurmountable, what happens to the companies looking for workers? Doesn't change the fact that we are still looking for workers, or that companies like Amazon are still offering $1000 signing bonuses for people. In the end what it means is higher costs that get passed along to the consumers. I guess that doesn't matter either, we all simply pay more.

Also the jobs I am talking about were already largely populated by immigrant workers that just couldn't get their paperwork in line for whatever reason. They are already here, now looking for work again, many of them now relying on social welfare programs where before they had jobs and didn't do so. This is not talking about running down to Guatamala or whatever and harvesting new workers to come across the border. We just had to let go nearly 600 people across the company when we already had a dearth of workers, to be in compliance with immigration worker laws. But those people are already here, and are now out of work. What now for them?

Really good post and overall discussion taking place here. Well done by all.


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[Bucknutz]

G

They pay between $18 and $25 per hour. Well in excess of California minimum wage. So if all of these problems you list here are simply insurmountable, what happens to the companies looking for workers? Doesn't change the fact that we are still looking for workers, or that companies like Amazon are still offering $1000 signing bonuses for people. In the end what it means is higher costs that get passed along to the consumers. I guess that doesn't matter either, we all simply pay more.

Also the jobs I am talking about were already largely populated by immigrant workers that just couldn't get their paperwork in line for whatever reason. They are already here, now looking for work again, many of them now relying on social welfare programs where before they had jobs and didn't do so. This is not talking about running down to Guatamala or whatever and harvesting new workers to come across the border. We just had to let go nearly 600 people across the company when we already had a dearth of workers, to be in compliance with immigration worker laws. But those people are already here, and are now out of work. What now for them?

Great post. I don’t have the answers. What is the priority? The people who are already here, the people crossing the boarder daily or recruiting workers that fit the need?

It seems like if we could pause all immigration to focus on the people here, would be the best start, in my opinion. We can’t keep adding people with out taking care of the ones here first. Open boarders and unlimited social welfare is not a solution.

 

[fishonjazz]

G

Great post. I don’t have the answers. What is the priority? The people who are already here, the people crossing the boarder daily or recruiting workers that fit the need?

It seems like if we could pause all immigration to focus on the people here, would be the best start, in my opinion. We can’t keep adding people with out taking care of the ones here first. Open boarders and unlimited social welfare is not a solution.

Agreed.

 

[One Brow]

I’m not disagreeing with you but I do have concerns about immigration and who we are taking in. Texas and Arizona have been busing immigrants to NYC and DC where their Mayors are finding it to be a bit overwhelming.


View: https://twitter.com/tom_winter/status/1549404299888922630?s=21&t=9hzFyinu6Hhw97wPpGtZWQ

NYC has over 18M people, and over 48K homeless. There were just under 3K sent by bus. I don't think most of the strain is coming from the bused immigrants.

 

[Bucknutz]

NYC has over 18M people, and over 48K homeless. There were just under 3K sent by bus. I don't think most of the strain is coming from the bused immigrants.

Yep, but a 6% increase in a couple months doesn’t help. At this pace, in a year would increase that number 40% which would put a major strain on the city.

 

[LogGrad98]

NYC has over 18M people, and over 48K homeless. There were just under 3K sent by bus. I don't think most of the strain is coming from the bused immigrants.

To me this is really more an indictment of how terrible our meager social systems are. In Germany not too long ago they were looking at taking in nearly 5% of their total population in Syrian refugees. They ended up at right about 2-3%, which is still an incredibly huge number, at right around 2 million refugees. To put it in context, that would equate to about 7 million refugees entering the US all at one time. This did not include other forms of immigration in the country, it was ONLY Syrian refugees, all other forms of immigrations had the normal annual numbers at the time, and actually an uptick as they also saw more immigration due to surrounding areas near Syria showing mass migrations out, and into countries like Germany, who were not technically part of the Syrian refugee groups. And it was a huge success all things considered. Mainly because Germany had a resolve to help, and they have the robust social systems to support that kind of a group coming in basically all at once. Yeah there were definite inconveniences and problem, in no way was it perfect, and yeah some people were vocally against it, as expected, it is never completely universally accepted. For example, the building I was going to move my family into was co-opted by the government for refugees, so we had to find other housing on very short notice moving my family to Germany. And there were stories of increased crime in some areas. But by and large it was very successful, and by and large public support was and is pretty high. Yeah they had infrastructure problems in general and there was definitely opposition, but the majority was resolved to help and it was very successful all things considered. I know I had a lot of friends who didn't really want Germany to get involved but their attitude was that, hey, they are going to go somewhere and at least this way Germany can have a positive impact on it rather than them settling somewhere Germany had no control. And most felt it was just the right thing to do.

Five Years Later, One Million Refugees Are Thriving in Germany

In 2015, large numbers of refugees fleeing war and terrorism in Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq arrived on Europe’s shores. Fear and uncertainty reigned—who would give these people asylum and how would they integrate? The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, remained undaunted. “We can do this!” she...

www.cgdev.org

We just simply could not handle that here, imo. Don't get me wrong, we definitely have the resources, but we have neither the systems in place nor the unified support of the populace and government to pull it off. We would be overwhelmed and you would see widespread protests and rioting. It would be chaos.

Could you imagine the outcry if we were to announce we were going to take in 7 million refugees from Colombia or something due to the drug wars or whatever? The Proud Boyz would absolutely lose it.

Kind of sad we are no longer that country that cares enough to say "Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!" any longer.

 

[Carbon13]

I think the best argument against solving labor shortages is its the first time in a very long time labor has had bargaining power.

 

[fishonjazz]

I think the best argument against solving labor shortages is its the first time in a very long time labor has had bargaining power.

Im hoping it stays that way for at least another 8 months or so. My union is going to begin negotiations on a new contract soon. Would be nice to have bargaining power. Im scared the recession will hit hard right before a contract is negotiated and the power will swing back to the company.

 

[Gameface]

Im hoping it stays that way for at least another 8 months or so. My union is going to begin negotiations on a new contract soon. Would be nice to have bargaining power. Im scared the recession will hit hard right before a contract is negotiated and the power will swing back to the company.

That's one of the reasons I was so disappointed last time. Economy and unemployment were in the favor of the workers and the union pulled out one of the worst contracts they had ever gotten all while giving up the pension.

That meeting was contentious, to put it mildly, and the contract passed 51 votes to 49.

At least three no votes that I had talked to a lot and was counting on didn't show up. People who care at all need to go to the contract vote meeting. If it's not good enough vote no. That doesn't mean a strike happens tomorrow, like Rick very specifically made it seem like, it means they go back and keep negotiating. The company feels like they have the union by the balls and that the workers will swallow whatever contract is handed to them. No contract has ever been voted down at that place. I say vote the first one down unless it is surprisingly fantastic and send a message that you all dare stand up for yourselves and won't just vote yes because Rick agreed to eat their assholes when they didn't even wipe so long as he can ride his ****ing waste train for the rest of his life.

 

[LogGrad98]

That's one of the reasons I was so disappointed last time. Economy and unemployment were in the favor of the workers and the union pulled out one of the worst contracts they had ever gotten all while giving up the pension.

That meeting was contentious, to put it mildly, and the contract passed 51 votes to 49.

At least three no votes that I had talked to a lot and was counting on didn't show up. People who care at all need to go to the contract vote meeting. If it's not good enough vote no. That doesn't mean a strike happens tomorrow, like Rick very specifically made it seem like, it means they go back and keep negotiating. The company feels like they have the union by the balls and that the workers will swallow whatever contract is handed to them. No contract has ever been voted down at that place. I say vote the first one down unless it is surprisingly fantastic and send a message that you all dare stand up for yourselves and won't just vote yes because Rick agreed to eat their assholes when they didn't even wipe so long as he can ride his ****ing waste train for the rest of his life.

This is one of the challenges of unions. All too often the union leadership itself does not have the best interest of the workers at heart. They care about 2 things: 1) secure the next contract, as long term as possible and 2) if the state allows, make it a closed shop so everyone is forced to join and a third I guess would be 3) make it mandatory for dues to be collected through automatic paycheck deduction. I had a union leader tell me this directly in a candid moment. They would give up all kind of stuff if it were a closed shop and the dues were collected through payroll deductions, so it was out of the hands of the workers. That secures the union's profitability, and in the end that is really all they care about.