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The Non-Jazz NBA Thread in the Jazz Section

There's a pretty interesting conversation going on in the bowels of nerdy NBA twitter. The claim is:

Luka Doncic is the most overrated player in the NBA

Pretty crazy right? But there's some statistical backing to this. Here are some of the sparknotes:

- Luka has an extremely poor raw on/off for a supposed elite NBA player
- Luka's team does well when he's off the court and also when he doesn't suit up, which is rejects the narrative that he has no help
- His adjusted +/- is good, but not great
- This is unlike any other "elite" player. Everyone else is great across the board.
- His box score numbers are monstrous which brings up any all-in-one type metrics that uses a box score prior
- There is no player who has a bigger discrepancy between their box score numbers and +/- related numbers
- His stats suggest stat padding
- High assists, but Mavs as a team have less assists and more turnovers with Luka on the court
- High rebounds, but Mavs rebound the same or better without him
- He steals technical free throw attempts and shoots them poorly compared to a normal designated FT taker
- His defense is extremely bad by +/- numbers, but again salvaged by box score component
- This extreme discrepancy between his box score numbers and the +/- metrics is large enough that it breaks models
- This "issue" is verified by very reputable people including those who worked in the NBA for the Mavs

Is Luka just a complete outlier and extremely unlucky compared to any other player we might put him in the tier as.....or is he a FRAUD!?!?!
 
Clips lost to the jokicless and murrayless wolves tonight. Reggie Jackson and Deandre Jordan owned them lol. Meanwhile Sixers beat LA by 40. Harden really tricked the clips.
 
KqWIN said:
There's a pretty interesting conversation going on in the bowels of nerdy NBA twitter. The claim is:

Luka Doncic is the most overrated player in the NBA

Pretty crazy right? But there's some statistical backing to this. Here are some of the sparknotes:

- Luka has an extremely poor raw on/off for a supposed elite NBA player
- Luka's team does well when he's off the court and also when he doesn't suit up, which is rejects the narrative that he has no help
- His adjusted +/- is good, but not great
- This is unlike any other "elite" player. Everyone else is great across the board.
- His box score numbers are monstrous which brings up any all-in-one type metrics that uses a box score prior
- There is no player who has a bigger discrepancy between their box score numbers and +/- related numbers
- His stats suggest stat padding
- High assists, but Mavs as a team have less assists and more turnovers with Luka on the court
- High rebounds, but Mavs rebound the same or better without him
- He steals technical free throw attempts and shoots them poorly compared to a normal designated FT taker
- His defense is extremely bad by +/- numbers, but again salvaged by box score component
- This extreme discrepancy between his box score numbers and the +/- metrics is large enough that it breaks models
- This "issue" is verified by very reputable people including those who worked in the NBA for the Mavs

Is Luka just a complete outlier and extremely unlucky compared to any other player we might put him in the tier as.....or is he a FRAUD!?!?!
Click to expand...
I think you are in a bit too deep. Self-creating scorers who play bad defense are the lowest lifeforms in the "basketball by analytics" world where most NBA teams and nerd fans live in.

However two years ago in the series vs Suns where Mavs lost the first 2 games Luka got heavy criticism for his lack of effort on defense being a big reason why they were trailing 0-2, and he stepped it up tremendously. If you go look at the last 5 games of that series (Mavs won those 4-1) you will see a very different Luka from what we see on an average regular season game. And it also showed up in the box: he got 14 steals in those 5 games and was really playing active on defense. He also sealed that series with stellar game 6 and 7 performances.

He can use his size and instincts on both ends, but he just coasts on defense a lot in the regular season just like Murray does. I think he isnt a top 3 player, but he is at least borderline top 5.
 
For me Luka is a kind of better version from Don. Very talented but very picky when it come to choose the fto do. Top 5 for Luka, Top 10-15 for Don but way below players with the mentality ''plus'' like MJ, Kobe, KD, Steph....
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Clips lost to the jokicless and murrayless wolves tonight. Reggie Jackson and Deandre Jordan owned them lol. Meanwhile Sixers beat LA by 40. Harden really tricked the clips.
Click to expand...

It's amazing how many times Harden and Westrbrook get traded only to negatively effect the teams they are traded to. Now the Clippers have both on their team and expect different results?
 
SoberasHotRod said:
It's amazing how many times Harden and Westrbrook get traded only to negatively effect the teams they are traded to. Now the Clippers have both on their team and expect different results?
Click to expand...
It's scary how well the thunder are set up with those clippers picks. They already have an incredible core and could have multiple top 10 picks still coming their way.
 
Going very much under the radar is the Pistons being hot trash despite all their top 10 picks. In fairness they have actually played some close games against good teams but still, 14 losses in a row and counting.

Last season I heard people tell how promising they look and said their record sucked because Cade was out and this year they were supposed to be sneaky good (some media outlets projected them as a play in team). Yet this year they may be worse than last year, despite hitting on both their draft picks.

Getting routed in the tank bowl by the Wizards is.... something.
 
HermanG said:
Going very much under the radar is the Pistons being hot trash despite all their top 10 picks. In fairness they have actually played some close games against good teams but still, 14 losses in a row and counting.

Last season I heard people tell how promising they look and said their record sucked because Cade was out and this year they were supposed to be sneaky good (some media outlets projected them as a play in team). Yet this year they may be worse than last year, despite hitting on both their draft picks.

Getting routed in the tank bowl by the Wizards is.... something.
Click to expand...
They're playing two centers together along with a complete non shooter and their other two starters are average to below average as shooters.

Wizards aren't even that bad of team imo. Jordan Poole is just awful. If you replaced him with a league average two guard they would be a respectable bad team.
 
HermanG said:
Going very much under the radar is the Pistons being hot trash despite all their top 10 picks. In fairness they have actually played some close games against good teams but still, 14 losses in a row and counting.

Last season I heard people tell how promising they look and said their record sucked because Cade was out and this year they were supposed to be sneaky good (some media outlets projected them as a play in team). Yet this year they may be worse than last year, despite hitting on both their draft picks.

Getting routed in the tank bowl by the Wizards is.... something.
Click to expand...
I love the collection of young talent that the pistons have put together but they have to add shooting and they are in a nice spot to do it. For this season just adding Bojan should make a huge difference when he gets back.
 
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