The official "let's impeach Trump" thread

[Zombie]

He’s a guy who’s won elections since those issues.

Serious question, do you think going from 12.2% victory to 2.6% is explained by Vitter? If so, how much?

I think Vitter was an incredibly flawed candidate, the sex scandal came from a time (preTrump) when those sort of things mattered to GOP voters.

That said, Trump has his rabid base of supporters, and as a Republican you're probably better off in the short term electorally if you attach yourself to him.

The lesson here, as it was in Kentucky, is that the Trump boost is not big enough to overcome good Democratic candidates, even in red states. Trump isn't some wildly popular president whose endorsement brings in a bunch of voters who weren't going to vote GOP anyway. He'll bring out the base, and that's about it.

 

[infection]

yes.

what's the alt narrative? Louisiana was bluer in 2015 than in 2019 and that Trump helped to close the gap for what should have been a double digit victory for the Democrat?

btw Rispone the Republican was up in the polls +5 pts prior to Trump’s last two visits.

I’m not providing any narrative. I’m questioning the narrative you and colton indicated was a big deal for “red Louisiana” to go blue. It “went blue” by 12.2 percentage points a year before it “went red” by 20% for Trump. My question is more your narrative how dropping 12.2% to 2.6% signals disaster for Trump.

 

[Zombie]

I’m not providing any narrative. I’m questioning the narrative you and colton indicated was a big deal for “red Louisiana” to go blue. It “went blue” by 12.2 percentage points a year before it “went red” by 20% for Trump. My question is more your narrative how dropping 12.2% to 2.6% signals disaster for Trump.

If nothing else it's a disaster for his ego, as he's now pulled out all the stops for two red state governor races in a row and been rebuked both times.

 

[Deleted member 365]

I’m not providing any narrative. I’m questioning the narrative you and colton indicated was a big deal for “red Louisiana” to go blue. It “went blue” by 12.2 percentage points a year before it “went red” by 20% for Trump. My question is more your narrative how dropping 12.2% to 2.6% signals disaster for Trump.

Well, seeing how 4/5 past gubernatorial elections in Louisiana were won by republicans by an average of 33.5 percentage points and no Democrat had won a state wide election by double digits since David Duke ran as the republican gubernatorial candidate in 1991, I’d say Republicans probably blew it by nominating Vitter.

Which is more likely?

Louisiana swinging 50 percentage points between 2011 and 2015 due to changing views and demographics and then changing back 47 percentage in 2019?

OR

David Vitter in just being an awful candidate making 2015 (an outlier year) a decent 12 point blowout for the Democrats in what is normally a conservative state?

 

[infection]

Well, seeing how 4/5 past gubernatorial elections in Louisiana were won by republicans by an average of 33.5 percentage points and no Democrat had won a state wide election by double digits since David Duke ran as the republican gubernatorial candidate in 1991, I’d say Republicans probably blew it by nominating Vitter.

Where do you think Edwards finishes in 2015 assuming an average candidate? And why was Vitter re-elected with 57% of the vote as a senator after all his flaws were known?

Which is more likely?

Louisiana swinging 50 percentage points between 2011 and 2015 due to changing views and demographics and then changing back 47 percentage in 2019?

OR

David Vitter in just being an awful candidate making 2015 (an outlier year) a decent 12 point blowout for the Democrats in what is normally a conservative state?

So you think Vitter explains all 12.6%? Nevertheless, I’d loved to have had this discussion of an outlier victory with you in 2015. I’m sure you’d have ceded that, and wouldn’t have been chest pounding on how this indicated the republicans were ****ed in 2016.

 

[Zombie]

So you think Vitter explains all 12.6%? Nevertheless, I’d loved to have had this discussion of an outlier victory with you in 2015. I’m sure you’d have ceded that, and wouldn’t have been chest pounding on how this indicated the republicans were ****ed in 2016.

It's pretty clear from his OP that he credits popular D policies as well.

So this time the election truly was a mandate on Democratic governing. Did the people want to continue with this same tax raisin, public education spendin liberal?

 

[infection]

And where do you presume Edward finishes in 2015 with an average republican opponent? And why did Vitter get 57% vote for re-election for the Senate after his controversies? If they’re enough to make his gubernatorial candidacy an outlier, why didn’t it create an outlier, or at least a loss, for his Senate seat?

 

[infection]

If nothing else it's a disaster for his ego, as he's now pulled out all the stops for two red state governor races in a row and been rebuked both times.

Well that’s good. If they can’t get him in 2020, everyone can at least breath a couple sighs of relief known they’ve gotten in a few blows to his ego.

 

[Deleted member 365]

It's pretty clear from his OP that he credits popular D policies as well.

Yes.

I also forgot to add, medicaid expansion is popular. While republicans were trying to destroy Obamacare, Edwards expanded Medicaid. Even in red states, medicaid expansion is popular.

Repubs have done nothing but alienate and antagonize key constitutents with their sexism, racism, and attacks on Obamacare.

 

[Zombie]

Well that’s good. If they can’t get him in 2020, everyone can at least breath a couple sighs of relief known they’ve gotten in a few blows to his ego.

I like our chances.

 

[Deleted member 365]

And where do you presume Edward finishes in 2015 with an average republican opponent? And why did Vitter get 57% vote for re-election for the Senate after his controversies? If they’re enough to make his gubernatorial candidacy an outlier, why didn’t it create an outlier, or at least a loss, for his Senate seat?

Because people’s feelings and views of stuff change over time? His “issue” happened in 2007, right? He ran for senate and got 57 percent of the vote in 2010. He then ran for governor in 2015.

maybe voters recognized how awful he was, both morally and politically? Just like voters recognize how awful Trump is and don’t want 4 more years of his crimes?

 

[infection]

Because people’s feelings and views of stuff change over time? His “issue” happened in 2007, right? He ran for senate and got 57 percent of the vote in 2010. He then ran for governor in 2015.

maybe voters recognized how awful he was, both morally and politically? Just like voters recognize how awful Trump is and don’t want 4 more years of his crimes?

So you’re attempting to make an argument that he was a significant outlier, and that explains the 10 percentage point drop, and when confronted with evidence contrary to your “flawed candidate” theory, your response is “well, hey, maybe people changed their minds!” I’m not big into clichés, but that’s mental gymnastics.