The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

[gandalfe]

I think that is kind of the only hope, that they lose morale. If Putin has his way he will continue to push. Frankly they haven't really engaged with the full force of their military yet, they have about 900k total troops with 2 mill reservists, and they have only deployed 150k-ish in the front and have only engaged maybe 1/5 of their arsenal. As Al stated, logistics is the concern for them now. If they can figure out how to support their troops in the field and can deploy even half of their current enlisted force with 1/2 of their arsenal this will take a different turn. The question comes, at what point is Putin willing to escalate to move long-distance means of attack, including potentially low-yield nuclear attacks. How crazy is he? Remains to be seen, it would appear.

Here is an interesting discussion around nukes in general and low-yield in particular.

'Limited' Tactical Nuclear Weapons Would Be Catastrophic

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows the limits of nuclear deterrence

www.scientificamerican.com

Not sure if expressing shock and outrage is enough to deter their use.

Regarding the numbers you mentioned, the vast majority of them are just bodies with little or no training. Beau explains it well:

 

[LogGrad98]

Regarding the numbers you mentioned, the vast majority of them are just bodies with little or no training. Beau explains it well:

Yeah the arsenal is much more dangerous. Of course without competent people to wield the weapons, it lessens the danger. Then again, pushing a button to launch a tactical nuke doesn't take much training. It is more than a little scary to see where this might go.

 

[Rubashov]

I think that is kind of the only hope, that they lose morale. If Putin has his way he will continue to push. Frankly they haven't really engaged with the full force of their military yet, they have about 900k total troops with 2 mill reservists, and they have only deployed 150k-ish in the front and have only engaged maybe 1/5 of their arsenal. As Al stated, logistics is the concern for them now. If they can figure out how to support their troops in the field and can deploy even half of their current enlisted force with 1/2 of their arsenal this will take a different turn. The question comes, at what point is Putin willing to escalate to move long-distance means of attack, including potentially low-yield nuclear attacks. How crazy is he? Remains to be seen, it would appear.

Here is an interesting discussion around nukes in general and low-yield in particular.

'Limited' Tactical Nuclear Weapons Would Be Catastrophic

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows the limits of nuclear deterrence

www.scientificamerican.com

Not sure if expressing shock and outrage is enough to deter their use.

No point committing more troops if you can't supply those already in the field. Ukraine is today indicating that they believe from captured Russians around Kiev that Russian forces have 3 days supply of food and ammo. Less in petrol.

Hungry troops without ammunition surrender and if the numbers of around 10,000 dead are to be believed you can bet another 20 to 30k are wounded or have surrendered already.

A general Ukrainian counter attack around Kiev will draw resources that Putin would rather use in the south. It may also buy Mariupol more time, might also be successful, if Rissias material position is so bad.

The Russians are rumoured to be looking to assault Odessa in the next few days, I doubt they have the supply capacity to be on the offensive in 3 parts of the frontier at the same time.

Interestingly a large number of senior Russian commanders have been killed. I wonder what intel role the US has played in this? If they are using commercial phones and unsecured comms, the NSA will know this, probably be able to provide fairly accurate locations of targets to Ukraine.

Who knows what Putin will do, I suspect there will either be a purge or a coup in Moscow.

 

[gandalfe]

Yeah the arsenal is much more dangerous. Of course without competent people to wield the weapons, it lessens the danger. Then again, pushing a button to launch a tactical nuke doesn't take much training. It is more than a little scary to see where this might go.

I doubt that launching a nuke in Russia is any less complicated than launching one here. It's a LOT more than just pushing a button.

 

[LogGrad98]

I doubt that launching a nuke in Russia is any less complicated than launching one here. It's a LOT more than just pushing a button.

Yep. Guarantee you they have plenty of people trained to do that.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Who knows what Putin will do, I suspect there will either be a purge or a coup in Moscow.

I have seen Australian media pushing the idea of a pending coup. You can find that idea from media based in other countries but not to the same level. For some reason the Australians have decided to run with that football.

Putin’s replacement in potential coup revealed

Russia’s business and political elite are plotting to remove Vladimir Putin from power and re-establish economic and diplomatic links with the West, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

www.skynews.com.au

Moscow coup: Ukrainian intelligence claims Russian elite planning to ‘overthrow’ Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon be ousted from the Kremlin according to a bombshell claim from Ukrainian intelligence. On a Facebook post uploaded on Sunday, the Chief Directorate of Intelligence for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said Russia's elites are considering "removing...

www.skynews.com.au

 

[Gameface]

Haha, no way Putin will see that coup that skynews is posting articles about coming.

 

[Avery]

How odd would it be if you could go back in time to the 1940's when Russia was one of our greatest allies and Germany, Italy and Japan were evil beyond evil and convince everyone that in the new millennium, we're besties with Germany, Italy and Japan and Russia is world enemy #1. You'd be sent straight to the looney bin.

Life comes at you fast.

 

[Rubashov]

I have seen Australian media pushing the idea of a pending coup. You can find that idea from media based in other countries but not to the same level. For some reason the Australians have decided to run with that football.

Putin’s replacement in potential coup revealed

Russia’s business and political elite are plotting to remove Vladimir Putin from power and re-establish economic and diplomatic links with the West, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

www.skynews.com.au

Moscow coup: Ukrainian intelligence claims Russian elite planning to ‘overthrow’ Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon be ousted from the Kremlin according to a bombshell claim from Ukrainian intelligence. On a Facebook post uploaded on Sunday, the Chief Directorate of Intelligence for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said Russia's elites are considering "removing...

www.skynews.com.au

Sky news is our version of fox news (owned by the same **** too), nobody takes anything said on it seriously.

The body likely to challenge Putin is the Army, he is not from the Army, he's KGB, there is no other institution like say the communist party to manage things.

The FSB, the Army, the dictatorship, two of the three are institutions, one is a man, who is more disposable? In the old days the party could and would replace the man, cant be done anymore, Putin looks vulnerable for the chop for the first time ever.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Sky news is our version of fox news (owned by the same **** too), nobody takes anything said on it seriously.

The body likely to challenge Putin is the Army, he is not from the Army, he's KGB, there is no other institution like say the communist party to manage things.

The FSB, the Army, the dictatorship, two of the three are institutions, one is a man, who is more disposable? In the old days the party could and would replace the man, cant be done anymore, Putin looks vulnerable for the chop for the first time ever.

I'm not denying anything you are saying. My comment was more related to the other thread that strayed into the power of influence. Given that I have seen that sort of content coming out of Australia, it isn't surprising to me that if someone on this board were to float the idea of a coup against Putin it would be from someone with a greater exposure to that market/content even if you hate or distrust one of the outlets purveying it.

 

[One Brow]

How odd would it be if you could go back in time to the 1940's when Russia was one of our greatest allies and Germany, Italy and Japan were evil beyond evil and convince everyone that in the new millennium, we're besties with Germany, Italy and Japan and Russia is world enemy #1. You'd be sent straight to the looney bin.

Life comes at you fast.

Russia (then the Soviet Union) was hated by the US/UK in the 1940s, but they were believed to be a temporary ally against Germany. Germany and Italy were thought to be more redeemable, AFAICT. I think you're correct about Japan.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

How odd would it be if you could go back in time to the 1940's when Russia was one of our greatest allies and Germany, Italy and Japan were evil beyond evil and convince everyone that in the new millennium, we're besties with Germany, Italy and Japan and Russia is world enemy #1. You'd be sent straight to the looney bin.

Life comes at you fast.

Maybe not. You have to remember that we went to war against Russia, and had troops in Russia fighting Russians from 1918 through 1920. In that war we were fighting side-by-side with Japanese forces. Ultimately we got pwned and subsequently the United States refused to recognize the Soviet Union as a nation until 1934.



There were those who wanted to keep fighting and take out the Soviets in 1945. While never formally put in place, Winston Churchill had commissioned battleplans for doing exactly that in what was termed 'Operation Unthinkable'. I don't think the 1940's people would be surprised at all if you told them Russia would become enemy #1.

Operation Unthinkable - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org