The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

[SteakNEggs]

This sentence and link also make me doubt your seriousness.



First of all, you've said a lot of positive things about Trump, so it's a REAL eyebrow raiser to then quote an article from Jacobin magazine. That's way way way on the opposite end of the spectrum, and has some pretty obvious reasons they might not oppose the reformation of the USSR

Second "seven year old civil war" is a laugher because that makes it sound like there was some independent conflict that originated inside the LNR/DNR and it was Donbas partisans who tried to declare independence (on the same day Russian annexed Crimea by conincidence)

Third, "largely ethnic Russian Donbas region" is a real headscratcher. Would love to hear what makes someone an "ethnic Russian" living in Ukraine, outside of primary language spoken, given that all Russians claim to be the descendants of a medieval civilization based in Kyiv.

It's one of those sentences that like literally every word drips with "doesn't know anything about this."

Yet aren't really offering the counter arguments you promised. The only positive thing I have said about Trump is that his presidency was one of the most peaceful in modern American history. This is fact. This isn't about Trump though. He threatened to bomb Moscow if they invaded and it wasn't him who reopened access to Nord in which Putin mobilized a few days later. Biden opened the door for this entire war.

Edit: and to be clear about my previous post, I'm just pointing out that Ukraine is far from perfect itself and neither of these countries are worth the threat of global annihalation. That's not me panicking and going into my bunker but it's no secret that the world is destabilizing. This war is making that worse, much worse, not better.

 

[Mongoose]

So SteakNEggs and Mongoose, are you actually interested in a real discussion of this topic or is this just a partisan thing?

I'm asking because I don't think either of you know me, but I can pretty much guarantee you my knowledge base on Russia/Ukraine is a LOT larger than either of yours. I speak Russian. I've been to Russia (in 2019). I've been to Ukraine three times. I was in Ukraine last month. I've hosted Belorussians in my home in the US personally, and I know actual professors from Russia who have written extensively about US/Russian relations over the last thirty years. I've met with Ukrainian soldiers fighting in this war, and drank water from a rainbarrel that was converted from an NLAW canister. I've cradled in shelter in an Odessa mall while air raid sirens blared and Iranian drones flew overhead.

I don't rely on random newspaper articles, and I verify a lot of open source materials through Russian-language sources. This isn't hypothetical for me. I even wrote jokes about my learning Russian and about Russian culture on this board nearly six years ago so there's jazzfanz receipts. (https://jazzfanz.com/threads/the-Баба-яга.72634/)

I can tell you that virtually every sentence in your posts above relies on simple wrong assumptions or misstatements of fact about the region. Do you actually want to talk about it, or are you going to discount anything I have to say because it conflicts with the idea that Democrats are wrong about Ukraine/Russia? Serious question.

I'm not going to pretend I know everything about the region or what is going on, but I do know more than putin/russia bad - USA good. I don't have a political affiliation, but I have been pushed right on this board because the discussion is often only regarding Trump or from a partisan perspective and pushback on the current administration makes me a righty. I think the US system is broken and both sides are cooperate captured.
I left the discussion in the Biden Admin thread and didn't return because of the bullying. I must say because of that I am skeptical when someone says they are a Democrat and they know everything about what is going on. I did not engage in political conversation when Trump was president so I cannot say what the overall state of these discussions were, but I can say that currently it appears to me democrats seem far more propagandized then republicans do. Besides republicans are supposed to be the pro-war corporate captured party. I'm not interested in discussing trump and that is not why I came here. I thought I would find allies in democrats who were anti-war and pro-worker, but they don't exist here or maybe anywhere anymore.
I don't know why I come here- I just try to point out US corruption and propaganda, but it hasn't gotten very far.

 

[SteakNEggs]

. I thought I would find allies in democrats who were anti-war and pro-worker, but they don't exist here or maybe anywhere anymore.

This is what gets me. Democrats used to be anti-corporation and anti-war and that is why I personally voted against Bush and for Obama. Now they are starting to remind me of the Republican party back in the Bush days that were pro war and think it's our job to fight others wars. They also fight tooth and nail for huge corporations like Pfizer to protect them.

 

[Mongoose]

This is what gets me. Democrats used to be anti-corporation and anti-war and that is why I personally voted against Bush and for Obama. Now they are starting to remind me of the Republican party back in the Bush days that were pro war and think it's our job to fight others wars. They also fight tooth and nail for huge corporations like Pfizer to protect them.

I don't know how you feel about trump, but I think this is how we ended up with trump to begin with. He was like a big middle finger to the republican party and the crap candidates that party kept putting forward. Democrats seem to still prescribe to the idea that they are still the lesser of two evils and yet the party is maybe where republicans were before Obama. I'm surprised that even after "force the vote" and what the party did to Bernie many still don't see it as a corporate captured propaganda machine. I'd ask how much evidence they need, but they seem to refuse to see any.

 

[Rubashov]

I remember when we took some of mexico for the US. Im sure we would all be cool if mexico invaded the US to take back texas or some ****.

I was thinking the same thing.

 

[Rubashov]

Would Ukraine fight our war though? The answer is no. We are funding a majority of Ukraine's war. Would they send us tanks? No. 100 billion? No. Would they put American flags on their profiles? No.

You know why? Because it's not their war.

I see isolationism and appeasement is alive and well. When should the west stand up against dictatorships? Maybe when Putin invades Poland? or do we forget the Poles? Maybe after he invades Germany?

Its not like Putin has been doing his level best to undermine the political process in democratic countries? Or killing dissidents living in western democracies? Oh wait...

You twit.

 

[Gameface]

I don't think anyone here is of the opinion that the U.S. is "good" and Putin/Russia is "bad" end of story. Obviously things aren't that simple. The U.S. has done many horrible things going back before we were a nation and continuing to this day. I'm not sure that identifying that the U.S. is flawed means that we should not do anything to help a nation being attacked by a larger neighbor. We have the means to help and it just so happens that the nation they are defending against is is an adversary of the U.S. and both sides have done everything possible to keep it that way.

 

[sirkickyass]

Sure... I'm not sure where you're coming from though.

"Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitors, detailing explosions in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions on February 18 and February 19-20, clearly suggest the contrary. Those big red splotches on the map around Donetsk and Luhansk show an intense bombardment. Overall, there were over 1400 shell and mortar detonations on February 18, about 2,000 explosions over the next two days. From the two maps, it looks like about two-thirds to three-fourths were on the Russian side of the line. This level of activity marks a big change. In early February, the previous thirty-day average was around sixty explosions per day."

Is this data wrong? Looks to me that both sides wanted action.

Will Tensions in Ukraine Boil Over?

The Ukrainian escalations of the last week, together with Russia’s recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and its movement of forces into their territories, advance the conflict to a new level.

nationalinterest.org

So you're mistaking an opinion/interpretation article for a news article.

All of the pieces that you're using to draw a conclusion that Ukraine wanted to start a war are based on the author's subjective assessment of a map contained a report and then an assumption made about what that assessment means about the parties actions and intentions.

Do you know who didn't draw any of those conclusions? The OSCE. Go read the report yourself.

https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-19%20Daily%20Report.pdf?itok=95901

I'm going to try and say this bluntly but I don't mean this to be insulting - this is my honest assessment: you don't have enough background information to know when you're reading something that's designed to manipulate you on this topic. You are drawing conclusions but can't actually assess the quality of the information you're reading. That's a dangerous place to be. Dunning-Kruger is real man.

 

[SteakNEggs]

So you're mistaking an opinion/interpretation article for a news article.

All of the pieces that you're using to draw a conclusion that Ukraine wanted to start a war are based on the author's subjective assessment of a map contained a report and then an assumption made about what that assessment means about the parties actions and intentions.

Do you know who didn't draw any of those conclusions? The OSCE. Go read the report yourself.

https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-19%20Daily%20Report.pdf?itok=95901

I'm going to try and say this bluntly but I don't mean this to be insulting - this is my honest assessment: you don't have enough background information to know when you're reading something that's designed to manipulate you on this topic. You are drawing conclusions but can't actually assess the quality of the information you're reading. That's a dangerous place to be. Dunning-Kruger is real man.

Welcome to the club that just results to insults. I say the same thing for you. What have you added? Nothing. All you've added is telling me how much more you know without actually adding anything. That's fine. I didn't search you out. I asked you a simple question 2 times now. What is the end game here? Where does us sending hundreds of billions end? If this war goes on for 3+ years who's funding this? Not Ukraine... Not NATO. We are. We are in another needless war. For what exactly? A country that has been unstable for decades. A country that has a lot of bad entities to it.

The guy asking me if I want to be educated adding absolutey nothing while accusing others of Dunnig-Kruger though. You are the one that is literally claiming you're so smart yet adds nothing. How cute. Self-projection. Just saying "you're wrong" is not intelligent conversation.

That's a dangerous place to be. Dunning-Kruger is real man.

Agree...

 

[SteakNEggs]

I see isolationism and appeasement is alive and well. When should the west stand up against dictatorships? Maybe when Putin invades Poland? or do we forget the Poles? Maybe after he invades Germany?

Its not like Putin has been doing his level best to undermine the political process in democratic countries? Or killing dissidents living in western democracies? Oh wait...

You twit.

So we should fight every war that has a dictator? Brilliant logic bully. Why arent we fighting other wars with dictators if it's that amazingly simple? Lol brillian logic then you even offer your 2 year old triggered name calling.

 

[sirkickyass]

Welcome to the club that just results to insults. I say the same thing for you. What have you added? Nothing. All you've added is telling me how much more you know without actually adding anything. That's fine. I didn't search you out.

Here I'll give you a piece from the same days that you wouldn't find on your own.

Welcome to Meduza - the best non-state owned newspaper that reports on Russia and Russian affairs. They publish some of their content in English.

So the same days of increased shelling that you cited to, the 18th and 19th of February, correspond with evacuation announcements by the nominal leaders of the LNR and DNR. That's the "evidentiary record" cited by the Russian side - that Ukraine escalated the situation to the point that evacuations had to be ordered so Russia had to intervene. Russian news repeats this story every day.

So there's a problem with the story: the evacuation announcements were recorded before the Ukrainians supposedly increased shelling on that side of the line.

Metadata reveals that DNR and LNR leaders recorded evacuation announcements two days in advance — Meduza

The video addresses announcing mass evacuations shared on February 18 by the leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” were actually recorded on February 16. This was reported by Bellingcat’s training and research director Aric Toler, who verified video metadata...

meduza.io

The video metadata shows the evacuations were recorded on the 16th. The next two days shellings increase. Then the videos are released as a "response" to the shellings. That's the timeline.

Do you still believe that you can just look at the OSCE map, guesstimate the share of who fired what, and then say "both sides are guitly?"

 

[sirkickyass]

So we should fight every war that has a dictator? Brilliant logic bully. Why arent we fighting other wars with dictators if it's that amazingly simple? Lol brillian logic then you even offer your 2 year old triggered name calling.

Historically the cost to stop imperial powers bent on conquest continually increases with every act of violence that is not stopped.

The piece you're not dealing with is that the war in Ukraine will not stop in Ukraine if we abandon it. Moldova's government has already indicated Russia intends to take Moldova next. Russia has signaled an intent to take Estonia as well. The Russian demand regarding NATO was always to give Russia eastern Europe as part of its sphere of influence. That would include portions of the EU like Poland. Maybe eastern Germany.

The line in Russia, right now, is that Russia has no borders. It goes on forever. (source: in Russian https://meduza.io/feature/2023/02/2...a-ofitsialno-rossiya-nigde-ne-zakanchivaetsya) There's really no limiting principle to the Kremlin concepts that led to this war. This is the right war. It's a just war. And Ukraine has to win it. The alternative is all out warfare where borders are negotiable - a return to the 19th century reality. That's the truth of the situation, and you can't negotiate with Putin to only take "just a little" and be satisfied. P

 

[SteakNEggs]

Here I'll give you a piece from the same days that you wouldn't find on your own.

Welcome to Meduza - the best non-state owned newspaper that reports on Russia and Russian affairs. They publish some of their content in English.

So the same days of increased shelling that you cited to, the 18th and 19th of February, correspond with evacuation announcements by the nominal leaders of the LNR and DNR. That's the "evidentiary record" cited by the Russian side - that Ukraine escalated the situation to the point that evacuations had to be ordered so Russia had to intervene. Russian news repeats this story every day.

So there's a problem with the story: the evacuation announcements were recorded before the Ukrainians supposedly increased shelling on that side of the line.

Metadata reveals that DNR and LNR leaders recorded evacuation announcements two days in advance — Meduza

The video addresses announcing mass evacuations shared on February 18 by the leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” were actually recorded on February 16. This was reported by Bellingcat’s training and research director Aric Toler, who verified video metadata...

meduza.io

The video metadata shows the evacuations were recorded on the 16th. The next two days shellings increase. Then the videos are released as a "response" to the shellings. That's the timeline.

Do you still believe that you can just look at the OSCE map, guesstimate the share of who fired what, and then say "both sides are guitly?"

You're making way too much out of so little. I was simply pointing out that Ukraine is no saint in this and they also helped initiate this. I stand by that. Russia is the true bad guy here but Ukraine is nowhere near worth this trouble with their checkered past.

My stance is neither country is worth the global repercussions and that Ukraine isn't this saint country it's made out to be. That is why I have now asked 3 times what the end game is here and you are trying to turn the conversation into something I personally couldn't care less about.

So I ask again... What is the endgame here? I read a report that Milley is now saying if we do not offer more money Ukraine will all but fail. So how long do we play this game? What exactly is NATO doing? Are we going to be on the hook for another 20 year war? Are we going to continue to supply munitions for that entire time? At what cost?

 

[SteakNEggs]

Historically the cost to stop imperial powers bent on conquest continually increases with every act of violence that is not stopped.

The piece you're not dealing with is that the war in Ukraine will not stop in Ukraine if we abandon it. Moldova's government has already indicated Russia intends to take Moldova next. Russia has signaled an intent to take Estonia as well. The Russian demand regarding NATO was always to give Russia eastern Europe as part of its sphere of influence. That would include portions of the EU like Poland. Maybe eastern Germany.

The line in Russia, right now, is that Russia has no borders. It goes on forever. (source: in Russian https://meduza.io/feature/2023/02/2...a-ofitsialno-rossiya-nigde-ne-zakanchivaetsya) There's really no limiting principle to the Kremlin concepts that led to this war. This is the right war. It's a just war. And Ukraine has to win it. The alternative is all out warfare where borders are negotiable - a return to the 19th century reality. That's the truth of the situation, and you can't negotiate with Putin to only take "just a little" and be satisfied. P

Do you think we are closer to a full out WW3 with helping or without? I say us helping is only making matters worse. We are much closer to an all out Nuclear war than we were a year ago. Hell we now for the first time in nearly 5 decades have no Nuclear treaties with Russia. One country compared to an entire globe. You all are playing a very dangerous game.

 

[SteakNEggs]

At what point are we going to have to start sacrificing our own? How many Americans are going to need to die again for a needless war? We just got done with one where thousands of soldiers died for nothing. Now we're trying to play super hero again?

I'm sorry. I hate it. And years ago Democrats wouldve hated it too. Now it's almost blood lust.

 

[The Thriller]

A question we should be asking ourselves, what happens to the world if we don’t help Ukraine?

Eastern Europe could fall to Russia. There’s ample evidence to suggest that Moldova would be consumed next by Russia followed by the rest of Eastern Europe. What about Asia? Won’t China be encouraged to invade Taiwan? Why stop there? What about other authoritarian regimes, won’t they too be encouraged to just gobble up land, people, and resources if they feel like it? The world order that has been established since the end of WWII will come to an end. And that’s not a good thing. Much of the freedom and prosperity we enjoy today was built upon the sacrifices of those from our past. Historically, the more free people, goods, and ideas are, the better off we all are. How much longer will you be able to purchase that cheap plasma or travel where you want with authoritarians gobbling up the world? Don’t like the current level of refugees? Just wait until China invades Taiwan and Russia takes over Poland. Think the cost to resist Russia is high now? Wait until they hit NATO. We already have experienced Russia’s intervention in the 2016 election. Why do you think they wanted Trump? Want to deter Russia from further interference in our democracy? Don’t let their disinformation and useful idiots poison our democracy and turn us against Ukraine.

Want to end this war asap? Give Ukraine the weapons they need to defeat Russia now. Want to deter China from further aggression? Show strong Support for Ukraine, a country that most Americans couldn’t identify on a blank map. Show authoritarian regimes that democracies will stand up for fellow democracies.

Lastly, it feels disingenuous to see some posters here whining about the war. What has changed in your life since this war began? Have you lost your home? Have your children been kidnapped to Russia? If this war feels rough to you, imagine being a Ukrainian right now! It honestly looks more like you’re just opposing the war because Democrats and Biden support Ukraine rather than actually being concerned with principles or with Ukrainian well-being. Negative polarization and oppositional defiant disorder are real things. I hope people are genuinely interested in discussing these issues and learning about these topics and aren’t just trolling posters to play whack-a-mole with complaints that you bring up.

 

[JimLes]

. That is why I have now asked 3 times what the end game is here

Same as WW2. Unconditional surrender.

Also, I love how all of you pro-Russian types like to pretend to be neutral, but your neutrality leads to Russia winning. It's like me saying "I'm against the tank, but let's shut Lauri down for the season." Like I'm so stupid, I don't know what the consequences of that are.

 

[One Brow]

At what point are we going to have to start sacrificing our own? How many Americans are going to need to die again for a needless war?

We don't. Russia started to run out of combat-ready forces last year. They are sending unprepared troops into a meat grinder. We don't need US troops for this fight.

 

[SteakNEggs]

Same as WW2. Unconditional surrender.

Also, I love how all of you pro-Russian types like to pretend to be neutral, but your neutrality leads to Russia winning. It's like me saying "I'm against the tank, but let's shut Lauri down for the season." Like I'm so stupid, I don't know what the consequences of that are.

I'm not neutral. Both countries are garbage and have been historically. I don't want war like you blood thirty leeches. This dude is pushing for millions of deaths yet I'm the bad guy. The naivety to think "unconstitutional surrender" won't take that. You're not stupid but you're not bright either. Think for 5 full seconds.

I don't want war. You are willing to sacrifice everything and you can't even tell me what for besides your lust of blood shed

 

[SteakNEggs]

What we should be pushing for is peace treaties and resolve but none of you want that. Let's be honest..