The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

[Al-O-Meter]

Putin’s war is the model of a military debacle but can Ukraine risk switching to the offensive?

It is a nasty calculus indeed. If Ukraine stays on the defensive, its civilians will die in large numbers. If it goes on the offensive, large numbers of its soldiers will die.

amp.brisbanetimes.com.au

Nice article from retired ADF General Mick Ryan

I've read a number of articles like this and I do hope a lot of it isn't wishful thinking. It is undeniable that Ukraine is taking territory back but there are also beginning to be reports of large stores of supplies in Belarus and Crimea. I have read a few opinions believing the Russians pulled back to spots they believed they could hold and are about to re-invade Ukraine with a new logistics strategy aimed at a more prolonged combat. The retaking of areas by Ukrainian troops could be temporary and deliberate on the part of the Russians.

 

[Rubashov]

I've read a number of articles like this and I do hope a lot of it isn't wishful thinking. It is undeniable that Ukraine is taking territory back but there are also beginning to be reports of large stores of supplies in Belarus and Crimea. I have read a few opinions believing the Russians pulled back to spots they believed they could hold and are about to re-invade Ukraine with a new logistics strategy aimed at a more prolonged combat. The retaking of areas by Ukrainian troops could be temporary and deliberate on the part of the Russians.

They're having issues with Belarus, seems the railway workers aren't big fans of the invasion. The Ukrainian counter offensive makes a lot of sense, prevent Russia from fortifying their positions and continuing to press their troops that have so far shown little desire to fight. Their performance thus far has been colossal, fingers crossed the keep making the Russians pay for every yard.

Im not convinced that the Russian have a massive reserve capability to continue their offensive. Aside from the logistics challenges they also need to have soldiers willing and capable of doing it, so far they've not shown much. Even in Mariupol they're not advancing, just shelling the city and trying to starve it into surrender, they've shown little appetite for street fighting. I mean who knows what happens next, but if the Ukrainian's can continue pushing the Russian back around Kiev its definitely encouraging. Putin might look to consolidate gains in the South and East but I think the fighting there is far from over too.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Their performance thus far has been colossal

There was a piece I read in the Atlantic in which an American who is fighting in Ukraine said the Ukrainian tactics and results have changed warfare. He said that soldiers with antitank weapons are so effective now that tanks have become deathtraps. For the Russians that is a huge problem because their entire military philosophy is built around tank warfare.

Since February 24, the Ukrainian military has convincingly displayed the superiority of an anti-platform-centric method of warfare. Or, as Jed put it, “In Afghanistan, I used to feel jealous of those tankers, buttoned up in all that armor. Not anymore.”

Ukraine’s Three-to-One Advantage

It’s not technology or tactics that has given Ukrainian fighters their greatest edge.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[JimLes]

He said that soldiers with antitank weapons are so effective now that tanks have become deathtraps.

It's been that way for a while. The wars in former Yugoslavia in the 90s demonstrated this, as well.

Ukraine's population is 70% urban. Taking large chunks of countryside means very little in a tactical sense. On the other hand, tanks do little in urban warfare. The 50km column of Russian armour going towards Kiev looked impressive, but what were they going to do? Frontal assault on a city of 3 million?

Mariupol may well fall to Russia in the coming weeks, but if it does, it will be through surrender. I don't think the Russian army has the military capability or the stomach to take the city building by building. The casualties would be astronomical. You can use technology and pummel a city into rubble, but eventually real live human beings are needed to go in there and take it.

 

[Red]

 

[LogGrad98]

Damn. Beautiful.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

One story that isn't getting a lot of press is how many Americans are fighting in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy they number in the "thousands".



Technically it is a crime for Americans to go to Ukraine to kill Russians. It is a violation of the Neutrality Act but no one seriously believes any of these Americans will be prosecuted upon their return.

American Fighters, Ukraine, and the Neutrality Act: The Law and the Urgent Need for Clarity

As Ukraine issues a call for private citizens worldwide to join the fight, Americans should be wary of the potential legal implications.

www.justsecurity.org

 

[Rubashov]

It's been that way for a while. The wars in former Yugoslavia in the 90s demonstrated this, as well.

Ukraine's population is 70% urban. Taking large chunks of countryside means very little in a tactical sense. On the other hand, tanks do little in urban warfare. The 50km column of Russian armour going towards Kiev looked impressive, but what were they going to do? Frontal assault on a city of 3 million?

Mariupol may well fall to Russia in the coming weeks, but if it does, it will be through surrender. I don't think the Russian army has the military capability or the stomach to take the city building by building. The casualties would be astronomical. You can use technology and pummel a city into rubble, but eventually real live human beings are needed to go in there and take it.

Their only real hope is to starve them out. Unlikely to work in the short term. If the Ukraiian counter offensive is successful the balance in this war will hopefully turn.

 

[Avery]

One story that isn't getting a lot of press is how many Americans are fighting in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy they number in the "thousands".



Technically it is a crime for Americans to go to Ukraine to kill Russians. It is a violation of the Neutrality Act but no one seriously believes any of these Americans will be prosecuted upon their return.

American Fighters, Ukraine, and the Neutrality Act: The Law and the Urgent Need for Clarity

As Ukraine issues a call for private citizens worldwide to join the fight, Americans should be wary of the potential legal implications.

www.justsecurity.org

Would have to be a federal prosecution and I’m sure they won’t bother with those optics when there’s no ROI in it.

 

[Deleted member 365]

isn’t it nice again to have a president who accurately describes Putin?



I couldn’t stand how Donald would constantly worship the world’s worst scum.

 

[lauriandres]

One story that isn't getting a lot of press is how many Americans are fighting in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy they number in the "thousands".



Technically it is a crime for Americans to go to Ukraine to kill Russians. It is a violation of the Neutrality Act but no one seriously believes any of these Americans will be prosecuted upon their return.

American Fighters, Ukraine, and the Neutrality Act: The Law and the Urgent Need for Clarity

As Ukraine issues a call for private citizens worldwide to join the fight, Americans should be wary of the potential legal implications.

www.justsecurity.org

If fighting against Russia (or what-whoever inside the Ukraine) is not illegal according the law of Ukraine - then what kind of US (state) law it violates? Officially, Russia has not even declared a a war against Ukraine? And how PRECISE/specific is that Neutrality Act? I.e is it OK to use a firearm but not hit/wound/kill somebody? What about being a driver, engineer, hacker, medic etc. Or killing a chechen, syrian etc.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

how PRECISE/specific is that Neutrality Act?

18 U.S.C. § 960

"Whoever, within the United States, knowingly begins or sets on foot or provides or prepares a means for or furnishes the money for, or takes part in, any military or naval expedition or enterprise to be carried on from thence against the territory or dominion of any foreign prince or state, or of any colony, district, or people with whom the United States is at peace, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both."

It doesn't matter than Russia hasn't declared war, only that the United States is formally at peace with Russia at the time the military enterprise is being carried out by American citizens against Russia.