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The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

I hear they have fun rides tho

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Great news! I’d like to see us feed them some ATACMS. From what I gather, those will come in real handy trying to liberate Crimea. We help Ukraine retake Crimea, this war will be over. That Russian house of cards is about to collapse.


Lol. Clear signaling to MAGA

View: https://twitter.com/bdmurray/status/1659885530161598471?s=46&t=QT7YFlZ_IlHq81PpZAhKgw

View: https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1660097645657075712?s=46&t=QT7YFlZ_IlHq81PpZAhKgw
 
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But what happens if the war is not winnable or Russia takes a city like Bakhmut and gains much needed morale and a possible supply chain pinch? What happens is Russia starts gaining traction?

View: https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1660167185828904960?s=46&t=BMMZjW7vq0_zwnmLDjNTgQ




View: https://twitter.com/warclandestine/status/1660104198711570434?s=46&t=BMMZjW7vq0_zwnmLDjNTgQ


I didn’t see anyone post the news of this yesterday. I also didn’t see anyone answer @SteakNEggs question 2 months ago. This seems like an important event in this war.
 
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View: https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1660167185828904960?s=46&t=BMMZjW7vq0_zwnmLDjNTgQ




View: https://twitter.com/warclandestine/status/1660104198711570434?s=46&t=BMMZjW7vq0_zwnmLDjNTgQ


I didn’t see anyone post the news of this yesterday. I also didn’t see anyone answer @SteakNEggs question 2 months ago. This seems like an important event in this war.

Because Ukraine claims it still possesses part of the "city." Ukraine has only held a few blocks worth of the city for months now and it has taken Russia half a year to go a kilometer or two at the cost of 100,000 casualties according to the U.S. and massive tank losses. Backhmut was a important place for Russia to smash themselves against. This is not a win for Russia.
 
I personally have a hard time trusting an intelligence that bombed and murdered an innocent father claiming it was a high ranking Al Qaeda member just over a month ago. That somehow lost and magically found 2 billion dollars randomly. That bombed and murdered an entire family including 7 children just to look good. That closed down a very very important central strategic airbase that led to one of the biggest disasters in US military history as they surrendered a 20 year war.

Now conquering Bakhmut may not be the biggest victory it does put a dent into supply issues and is most definitely a victory in many ways.
 
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Because Ukraine claims it still possesses part of the "city." Ukraine has only held a few blocks worth of the city for months now and it has taken Russia half a year to go a kilometer or two at the cost of 100,000 casualties according to the U.S. and massive tank losses. Backhmut was an important place for Russia to smash themselves against. This is not a win for Russia.
Do you consider this a win for Ukraine? How many casualties did they suffer? I’m not supporting Russia. I don’t have a military background, I just see the narrative changing in the news. Today, stories are coming out saying this doesn’t mean anything. Just 2 months ago it means everything.


“A Russian capture of Bakhmut “will mean nothing, actually,” predicted Colonel Serhiy Hrabsky, a commentator on the war for the Ukrainian news media. “The Russians have exhausted their offensive capabilities and that is why they so desperately declare they have captured Bakhmut.”
 
Do you consider this a win for Ukraine? How many casualties did they suffer? I’m not supporting Russia. I don’t have a military background, I just see the narrative changing in the news. Today, stories are coming out saying this doesn’t mean anything. Just 2 months ago it means everything.


“A Russian capture of Bakhmut “will mean nothing, actually,” predicted Colonel Serhiy Hrabsky, a commentator on the war for the Ukrainian news media. “The Russians have exhausted their offensive capabilities and that is why they so desperately declare they have captured Bakhmut.”
The people I've been listening to have been saying that Bachmut is strategically insignificant for many months now. They've been saying that Ukraine denying complete capture has been a way to focus Russian efforts here while Ukraine prepares for a counteroffensive elsewhere. The casualties are extraordinarily lop-sided in favor of Ukraine, but for Ukraine's sake they have to be. Russia has more soldiers to feed into the grinder than Ukraine does. That said, Russia has been disgusting in how they've wasted human lives in meat wave attacks that have been thwarted time and time again. The Wagner boss Prigozhin has had a feud with the Russian military over supplies, especially ammo, and his source of prisoners forced to fight has been shut off. His rhetoric against the Russian military and veiled shots at Putin that he has posted publicly have me wondering when he's either going to fall out of a hotel window or somehow eat radioactive material.

Bakhmut has cost Russia a lot. I'm not sure if it will ultimately be worth it to them. They essentially leveled the entire city in order to capture it.
 
The people I've been listening to have been saying that Bachmut is strategically insignificant for many months now. They've been saying that Ukraine denying complete capture has been a way to focus Russian efforts here while Ukraine prepares for a counteroffensive elsewhere. The casualties are extraordinarily lop-sided in favor of Ukraine, but for Ukraine's sake they have to be. Russia has more soldiers to feed into the grinder than Ukraine does. That said, Russia has been disgusting in how they've wasted human lives in meat wave attacks that have been thwarted time and time again. The Wagner boss Prigozhin has had a feud with the Russian military over supplies, especially ammo, and his source of prisoners forced to fight has been shut off. His rhetoric against the Russian military and veiled shots at Putin that he has posted publicly have me wondering when he's either going to fall out of a hotel window or somehow eat radioactive material.

Bakhmut has cost Russia a lot. I'm not sure if it will ultimately be worth it to them. They essentially leveled the entire city in order to capture it.
Appreciate your response.
 
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I had a bunch of other stuff written up but I don't really know what I can say so I will just not go there. I'm not special. I don't have any extra special knowledge. This just isn't the place to say what I have seen in regard to hypersonic targets.
I wouldn’t advise divulging test results but there is a long history demonstrating how hard it is to intercept these types of targets, and how poorly our systems have been at the job.

Back in 1950’s we supposedly were able to do it and Kelly Johnson, the same guy who later designed the SR-71, made a target drone that could hit Mach 4.3 called the AQM-60 Kingfisher. All of the interceptor technology we had failed to hit it. Ever. The government cancelled Lockheed’s Kingfisher production contract because it was embarrassing the weapon systems that were supposed to make people feel safe.

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Then in the 1980’s there was SDI, the Strategic Defense Initiative, better known as Star Wars. We were on the cusp of making the United States invulnerable to any Soviet ICBMs using a layered combination of land, sea, and satellite based interceptor technology. There were computer animations showing how everything worked, except that it didn’t.

One of the interesting interceptor ideas was the Boeing YAL-1 Airborne Laser. It was a giant laser housed in a Boeing 747 with an aiming mirror/lens at the nose which could kill targets at the speed of light. It worked great on paper. The problem is the water in our atmosphere distorts and diffuses any laser beam to the point that after 5-10km it no longer had the energy to do any real damage.

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The Patriot Missile Defense System, like all the other products before it, came with fantastic claims the real world test data didn’t support. We do have a long list of falling short but we do get better with every generation and we are certainly better than anyone else in the world. It is just a hard problem to solve, and I do think the Patriot system of today is very impressive even if it isn’t quite as good as the American government would have us believe.
 
Because Ukraine claims it still possesses part of the "city." Ukraine has only held a few blocks worth of the city for months now and it has taken Russia half a year to go a kilometer or two at the cost of 100,000 casualties according to the U.S. and massive tank losses. Backhmut was a important place for Russia to smash themselves against. This is not a win for Russia.
I have heard from a couple of sources that Ukraine is gaining in the area surrounding Bakmut. It could be that their forces wind up encircled.
 
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