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The West Conundrum

Saint Cy of JFC said:
A conversation usually involves responding to what the person said, not repeating exactly what I said.
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You said "its a stretch to say we improved" I said "we are definitely improved".

You talked about next year improvement and new leaps, I talked about holding end of the year status quo.

You pointed out the players lost in LA trade while I didnt even discuss that and brought up Hardy instead.

But other than those it was basically the same post.
 
The west looks pretty rough on paper, but this has always been my take on the NBA and probably always will be:

If you’re a team like the Jazz that has decent to-good-level talent, and you go out every night actually trying to win and compete, you’re gonna find some wins. Looking at the Jazz talent on paper, that team should be able to .500 just off of effort. There’s gonna be a lot of nights that team like the Lakers, Suns, and Golden State are resting their stars or their big name players are “injured”.
 
HermanG said:
Can all these things be simultaneously true?
  • Spurs improve their record after adding Wemby
  • Rockets improve after adding FVV+Brooks+Amen+Cam
  • Jazz improve after adding Collins, Keyonte, Hendricks and Sensabaugh (and also by not tanking the rest of the way next season)
  • OKC improve after adding Chet and Wallace
  • Lakers improve after all their applauded offseason moves
  • Suns improve after adding Beal (plus Durant wasnt there full year)
  • Nuggets stay as class of the conference
Thats 7 of the 15 teams in the West who are very realistically expected to improve or hold their record. The only one we really expect to fall right now are Blazers, but they already finished bottom 3 in the West last year so its not like they can "make much room" for those on the rise.

Even if you dismiss 1 or 2 from that list being true it still raises this question:
Where does that leave the other teams... Grizzlies, Kings, Clippers, Warriors, Wolves, Pels and Mavs?

All those teams have expectations attached to them, and apart from maybe Grizzlies and Kings the rest of them have some major future concerns going forward if they fall to make way for the teams on the rise. So the question is:
Who or what gives in?
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The western conference is going to be brutal for all teams. Jazz could win more games and miss the playoffs or get in play in.
 
ONE LOVE said:
I think we’ll be bad 1 more year.

We have a lot of new & young talent who aren’t quite ripe yet.
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This is correct. Good job, Nickkkkkkkky. Tony reported that '23-'24 is a year of development and roster strengthening, and summer of '24 is going to be the timeframe they look to make a major splash. (Which, in my read of it, sounds like an assertive push for Brown or Doncic.)
 
I think:

Denver - slightly worse (championship hangover)
Memphis - worse
Sacramento - worse (because they played better than their talent last year)
Phoenix - about the same (injuries/ lack of chemistry
Clippers - strangely, I think they do better this year
Golden State - about the same
Lakers - improve
Wolves - improve
OKC - improve
New Orleans - about the same
Dallas - improve
Utah - about the same
Portland - worse
Houston - slightly better
San Antonio - slightly better

Overall I’m expecting another year of a lot of parity, with only a few games separating 3 from 12.
 
Clearly lots of parity in the west, and clearly the biggest X factor is star player health. That goes for us and it also (maybe especially) goes for the teams with aging/aged (Clippers, Lakers, Suns) or plan old fragile (New Orleans) super star lead teams.
 
The Clippers and Warriors are teetering due to age and potential for injuries. Lakers still need LeBron and AD to be healthy.
 
Lakers and Clippers will struggle. They both are relying on injury prone vets that are just getting older.
Spurs still have a terrible roster.
Houston has an expensive Medocre backcourt, with young guys who already play losing hero ball.
OKC should be much better, but their roster still isn't great.
Dallas has a poorly built team. Luka will probably ask for a trade sooner than later.
Denver will be solid.
Portland will be the worst team in the west.
Sacramento should be good, they usually suck so who knows.
Minnesota will miss the playoffs and probably look to either blow it up or trade Towns or Rudy to tweak the roster.
Phoenix should be solid. Booker, Beal and Durrant are going to cook when they're healthy.
Jazz will be significantly better. Every position should be better and deeper. Kessler will develop a little offense. Collins probably won't be the player he was 3 years ago, but he will be much better than Gay. The 3 rookies will be interesting. 1 will fade, and 1 will get 15 minutes, and 1 will end up being a huge piece. My guess is Hendricks will end up as best.
 
nateboz said:
Lakers and Clippers will struggle. They both are relying on injury prone vets that are just getting older.
Spurs still have a terrible roster.
Houston has an expensive Medocre backcourt, with young guys who already play losing hero ball.
OKC should be much better, but their roster still isn't great.
Dallas has a poorly built team. Luka will probably ask for a trade sooner than later.
Denver will be solid.
Portland will be the worst team in the west.
Sacramento should be good, they usually suck so who knows.
Minnesota will miss the playoffs and probably look to either blow it up or trade Towns or Rudy to tweak the roster.
Phoenix should be solid. Booker, Beal and Durrant are going to cook when they're healthy.
Jazz will be significantly better. Every position should be better and deeper. Kessler will develop a little offense. Collins probably won't be the player he was 3 years ago, but he will be much better than Gay. The 3 rookies will be interesting. 1 will fade, and 1 will get 15 minutes, and 1 will end up being a huge piece. My guess is Hendricks will end up as best.
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Its a good point about Rockets. They did allow their young guys to play very selfish quality ball last season.

While it was effective for tanking purposes I dont know how easy it is to learn out of. Habits die hard.
 
OP problem is also highlighted by Zach Harper doing his offseason Power Rankings. Out of his top 19 teams, 12 are from West. Utah is at #19, ranked as the best team outside the play-in/playoff tiers.

However even if we miss out which I think we wont, there are only 10 spots fir the other 11.

theathletic.com

NBA Power Rankings: Champs on top; one pressing question for all 30 teams

A couple of major dominoes are left to fall, but we have a pretty good idea of where every team stands this offseason.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
 
HermanG said:
Its a good point about Rockets. They did allow their young guys to play very selfish quality ball last season.

While it was effective for tanking purposes I dont know how easy it is to learn out of. Habits die hard.
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I don't see many of the young guys deferring to Brooks, who was about as bad a choice as you could get to add solid vet leadership.
 
HermanG said:
OP problem is also highlighted by Zach Harper doing his offseason Power Rankings. Out of his top 19 teams, 12 are from West. Utah is at #19, ranked as the best team outside the play-in/playoff tiers.

However even if we miss out which I think we wont, there are only 10 spots fir the other 11.

theathletic.com

NBA Power Rankings: Champs on top; one pressing question for all 30 teams

A couple of major dominoes are left to fall, but we have a pretty good idea of where every team stands this offseason.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
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minor gripe, but why label the additions/subtractions as "key" when they just listed all additions/subtractions?
 
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