Obviously the consensus is that this is one of the weakest drafts in years, blah blah blah, we all know that drill.
Jimmer is currently projected somewhere between 10-20 in the supposed very weak draft. If this were a more typical draft class where would Jimmer land? Would he be a second-rounder or would his crazy college scoring numbers make his value relatively stable?
I kind of have a suspicion that his projected draft position wouldn't be much different than it is now because absent a handful of real blue-chip athletes that would obviously go before him (Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, etc.) Jimmer's relatively strengths and weaknesses vs. his peers would be static. Someone would still take a flyer on the highest scorer or most dominant player in college basketball in the mid-first round regardless of available talent is my thesis I guess.
As evidence I'm thinking of the case of Tyler Hansborough, who had effectively the same "weaknesses" as Jimmer in the sense that the punditry declared him to be of less than ideal size and athleticism. However his college career was obviously excellent. In a draft class that was perceived to be considerably stronger than the present one he was ultimately drafted 13th. Lo and behold that's a very realistic slot for Jimmer today as well.
The real question here that I'd like to address then is whether a) Jimmer is projected as a mid first rounder because that's what his "true value" is relative to the talent pool in this particular draft or b) Jimmer is projected as a mid first rounder because that's what we have collectively determined to be the appropriate range in which teams take great college players that don't have ideal NBA bodies regardless of draft class?
I kind of suspect there's some truth to option b, and that has interesting implications for what Jimmer's "true value" might be relative to this particular class.
Full disclosure: I'm Jimmer agnostic. I have no real dog in the fight other than being generally amused by the intensity of Jimmer fanatics. Any comments that I'm a Jimmerphile or a Jimmer-hater will be laughed at and not responded to.
Jimmer is currently projected somewhere between 10-20 in the supposed very weak draft. If this were a more typical draft class where would Jimmer land? Would he be a second-rounder or would his crazy college scoring numbers make his value relatively stable?
I kind of have a suspicion that his projected draft position wouldn't be much different than it is now because absent a handful of real blue-chip athletes that would obviously go before him (Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, etc.) Jimmer's relatively strengths and weaknesses vs. his peers would be static. Someone would still take a flyer on the highest scorer or most dominant player in college basketball in the mid-first round regardless of available talent is my thesis I guess.
As evidence I'm thinking of the case of Tyler Hansborough, who had effectively the same "weaknesses" as Jimmer in the sense that the punditry declared him to be of less than ideal size and athleticism. However his college career was obviously excellent. In a draft class that was perceived to be considerably stronger than the present one he was ultimately drafted 13th. Lo and behold that's a very realistic slot for Jimmer today as well.
The real question here that I'd like to address then is whether a) Jimmer is projected as a mid first rounder because that's what his "true value" is relative to the talent pool in this particular draft or b) Jimmer is projected as a mid first rounder because that's what we have collectively determined to be the appropriate range in which teams take great college players that don't have ideal NBA bodies regardless of draft class?
I kind of suspect there's some truth to option b, and that has interesting implications for what Jimmer's "true value" might be relative to this particular class.
Full disclosure: I'm Jimmer agnostic. I have no real dog in the fight other than being generally amused by the intensity of Jimmer fanatics. Any comments that I'm a Jimmerphile or a Jimmer-hater will be laughed at and not responded to.
