Who says No?

[LogGrad98]

If we ended up with pick #8, let's say, we could still use it to trade up potentially.

 

[sirkickyass]

Actually I did defend it but you simply chose not to respond because your whole argument is as biased as you get which is hilarious considering you brought up the bias to begin with.

Your argument is based on a small stretch in December.

Actually, I shouldn't say that. Half of your basis here is that WJ's my boy. I'd be interested to see how many posts you can find in which I referenced him since the start of the regular season. None. Perhaps one at the absolute most.

Do you deny that you spent the entire run-up to last year's draft pimping Wesley Johnson, including but not limited to suggesting the Jazz should trade up to get him?

I'm sure he's my boy. I'm also sure most NBA players, and rookies to boot, are wildly consistent and string together 9-18 shooting performances every night en route to their 50% from the floor season. That's so true.

Strawman. The facts:

1. Among qualified rookies (those making at least 150 field goals), Johnson was 12th out of 14 rookies in field goal percentage.

2. Among all rookies that hit at least 50 field goals he was 35th out of 40 in field goal percentage.


I don't need to win that he should hit 50% every night to advance the case that his season was a disaster from the field. I just need to win what the facts say: that even among rookies he was sub-mediocre. There is no plausible debate about this. It doesn't matter that on a particular night in the season he was 46% from the field because the facts are the facts: across a broader sample of games he was simply terrible.

Or maybe he had his good games with his bad like any NBA player.

Of course his bad games so outnumbered his good ones that he ended up with some of the worst rookie shooting numbers. Relative quantity matters here quite a bit. This wouldn't matter as much if his rebounding and assist numbers weren't barely better than Nick Young's, but if your primary asset to the team is scoring then you need to be at least in the top half of the rookie class in shooting when you're the fourth pick in the draft and one of the oldest players drafted.

Their was statistical improvement (unless we want to ignore his good games because they never really happened and were obviously just an anomaly and couldn't have been a sign of things to come because ya know, you're omniscient) that's undeniable.

There was statistical improvement if and only if you stop counting the season in December. And one-month bumps don't mean anything in the NBA. With that kind of thinking KEK you'd be the guy who signed Jerome James to a huge contract based on a handful of games. You are literally hanging your argument on just as much evidence as Isiah had in that instance.

This doesn't look like improvement to me:

November (first full month of the season, 14 games): 42.4% FG, 37.5% 3PFG%, 9.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 APG

March (last full month of the season, 13 games): 33.9% FG, 36.7% 3PFG%, 8.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.2 apg.

He also got a couple fewer minutes a game in March as opposed to November. Because he was losing minutes to Wayne Ellington. But Minnesota was also playing a little faster version of ball in March than it was in November so his rebound rate remained virtually unchanged while his assist and shooting rages plummeted. And you want me to give him credit for improvement? Get the **** out of here.

What we do know is statistically, he showed vast improvement from month to month until January hit.

In other words, he sucked for more than half the season.

I don't think you realize just how badly he shot from the field and just how much his hot three week stretch pulled up his average to even its current abysmally low state. I watched a lot of Timberwolves halves and quarters this season because the Beasley/Love show was fun and you could usually watch someone go off against them in an entertaining fashion. Johnson was almost uniformly horrible. If you go through his game log you'll note that he shot 33.3% or less in a game 35 times this season. That's a tremendous amount for a player and well below any basketball equivalent of a Mendoza line. It was like having Raja Bell's crappier younger brother.

But yeah, let's call him a bust after one NBA season, 24 or not. That's the wise move. I mean, guys never improve after their rookie year or past the age of 24, especially guys on a God awful team with no point guard play and guys who are banged up and/or injured and missed much/most of camp in September and October leading into the season with an injury (hamstring) that pretty much debilitates an athlete. True, we should just write him off.

Honest question: What is your realistic projection for a 25 year old, 6'7" second year player coming off of the season Johnson just had?

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

Your argument is based on a small stretch in December.

No, they're based on the entire months of October, November and December. You're the one being biased and picking and choosing the games you'd like to help your argument.

Do you deny that you spent the entire run-up to last year's draft pimping Wesley Johnson, including but not limited to suggesting the Jazz should trade up to get him?

I also used to love certain women. I guess that means I continue to pimp them from here to eternity. Why not stop avoiding the question and address the fact that you can't find more than one (I would guess actually none probably) post made by me regarding Johnson since the start of the season. But yes, my infatuation is palpable.

Strawman. The facts:

1. Among qualified rookies (those making at least 150 field goals), Johnson was 12th out of 14 rookies in field goal percentage.

2. Among all rookies that hit at least 50 field goals he was 35th out of 40 in field goal percentage.

I don't need to win that he should hit 50% every night to advance the case that his season was a disaster from the field. I just need to win what the facts say: that even among rookies he was sub-mediocre. There is no plausible debate about this. It doesn't matter that on a particular night in the season he was 46% from the field because the facts are the facts: across a broader sample of games he was simply terrible.

That's good Kicky. Now try re-reading my original post in which I say he showed promise up until January and then admittedly stated he plummeted. The fact that you say "I don't need to win" here says it all really. You are looking to win. It's not about being objective and actually putting my original post into perspective and basing your opinion off of that. It's about you sticking to your guns no matter what, twisting the facts, and using colors that I never provided to paint your own picture. Seems about right for a future lawyer.



Of course his bad games so outnumbered his good ones that he ended up with some of the worst rookie shooting numbers. Relative quantity matters here quite a bit. This wouldn't matter as much if his rebounding and assist numbers weren't barely better than Nick Young's, but if your primary asset to the team is scoring then you need to be at least in the top half of the rookie class in shooting when you're the fourth pick in the draft and one of the oldest players drafted.


Young averaged 2.7 rebounds in 31.8 minutes per game. He also averaged just 1.2 assists. In 26.2 minutes, Johnson had 3.0 rebounds (3.6 pace in Young's time or 33% better) and 1.9 assists (2.3 pace for Young's time or nearly twice as many as Young per minute). Young's also two years older than Johnson and been in the league four years so by now, he should have assimilated. But good comparison. Johnson is only 33% greater in his rebounding rate and nearly 100% greater in his assists rate despite having far less experience. Regarding shooting being his primary value to a team, that's easily debatable. He was known for what he brought to the table in all phases of the game: defense, rebounding, passing, blocking shots, and yes, shooting too.


There was statistical improvement if and only if you stop counting the season in December. And one-month bumps don't mean anything in the NBA. With that kind of thinking KEK you'd be the guy who signed Jerome James to a huge contract based on a handful of games. You are literally hanging your argument on just as much evidence as Isiah had in that instance.

This doesn't look like improvement to me:

November (first full month of the season, 14 games): 42.4% FG, 37.5% 3PFG%, 9.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 APG

March (last full month of the season, 13 games): 33.9% FG, 36.7% 3PFG%, 8.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.2 apg.

Again, maybe re-read my original post and address what I stated. Or you can continue on with stats that have nothing to do with what I said. I expect the latter because, well, it's your style.

He also got a couple fewer minutes a game in March as opposed to November. Because he was losing minutes to Wayne Ellington. But Minnesota was also playing a little faster version of ball in March than it was in November so his rebound rate remained virtually unchanged while his assist and shooting rages plummeted. And you want me to give him credit for improvement? Get the **** out of here.

See above. I never said he improved from November to March.

In other words, he sucked for more than half the season.

I don't think you realize just how badly he shot from the field and just how much his hot three week stretch pulled up his average to even its current abysmally low state. I watched a lot of Timberwolves halves and quarters this season because the Beasley/Love show was fun and you could usually watch someone go off against them in an entertaining fashion. Johnson was almost uniformly horrible. If you go through his game log you'll note that he shot 33.3% or less in a game 35 times this season. That's a tremendous amount for a player and well below any basketball equivalent of a Mendoza line. It was like having Raja Bell's crappier younger brother.



Honest question: What is your realistic projection for a 25 year old, 6'7" second year player coming off of the season Johnson just had?

If he's healthy, I expect his confidence to be far, far greater. Try being a rookie professional athlete and unable to practice with your teammates for most of camp. A point I noticed you conveniently did not address by the way. Having said that, I could see a solid semi-leap to about 30 minutes per game, 13.5ppg on 43.5% shooting (38% from three), 4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.2 steals and blocks per game. That's a respectable season, especially considering how awful the TWolves are and how they have no post-presence. I love Love but teams don't have to double team him which makes perimeter shooting for guys like Johnson more difficult. But with a year under his belt and a full camp, I see his confidence being infinitely better and thus his performance much improved.

In red above.

 

[sirkickyass]

No, they're based on the entire months of October, November and December. You're the one being biased and picking and choosing the games you'd like to help your argument.

That "improvement" is most manifest by that aforementioned stretch of games. The irony of you accusing me of picking and choosing is more than a little ironic given that you originally based your argument around the "start" of the season so I went with the first 20% of his games and then compared that to the entirety of the last four-plus months of the season to show that thsoe last four-plus months were worse. I'm not denying his hot-stretch happened, but the fact that it's a bump in anotherwise relatively consistently awful season is a story about an anomaly, not a story about improvement.

You've chosen a single narrative that allows you to say that the three week stretch is the "real" Wesley Johnson from which we should project future growth. That's you picking the convenient evidence, not me apparently picking and choosing only the most damning 90% of the schedule and saying that's the relevant part of his performance.

I also used to love certain women. I guess that means I continue to pimp them from here to eternity. Why not stop avoiding the question and address the fact that you can't find more than one (I would guess actually none probably) post made by me regarding Johnson since the start of the season. But yes, my infatuation is palpable.

You didn't talk about him much during the season, but you are the name I most strongly associate with Johnson just like you're the name I most strongly associate with Courtney Lee on the board. You are not denying that you wanted the Jazz to draft him and talked about him a lot in the run-up to the draft, nor that you suggested trading up to get him. We don't really have competing narratives here. If you aren't his biggest supporter here, why are you bothering to spend time defending him?

Speaking of bad KEK predictions: How did that Orlando title prediction for this season work out for you?

That's good Kicky. Now try re-reading my original post in which I say he showed promise up until January and then admittedly stated he plummeted. The fact that you say "I don't need to win" here says it all really. You are looking to win. It's not about being objective and actually putting my original post into perspective and basing your opinion off of that. It's about you sticking to your guns no matter what, twisting the facts, and using colors that I never provided to paint your own picture. Seems about right for a future lawyer.

Pure bluster. What fact did I twist? You don't name any. Do you deny that the stats unequivocally indicate that Johnson was among the worst shooters among all rookies? Do you have any argument to the contrary? And you know as well as I do that my "I don't need to win .... to prove my argument that" was a response to your strawman acting like I was claiming he was a bad player because he didn't shoot 50% for every game in the season. I'm saying he's a bad player because he doesn't have a single NBA level skill. There's a real difference there. In retrospect we actually should have seen this coming earlier. I usually don't pay attention to college play but I'm honestly a little surprised he was the 4th pick in the draft given his age and his not-exactly-overwhelming college stats.

Also, "future lawyer?" Wtf? Are you a future adult? A future teacher? A future pornography addict?

Again, maybe re-read my original post and address what I stated. Or you can continue on with stats that have nothing to do with what I said. I expect the latter because, well, it's your style.

I understand that your position is that he improved up until December. However you seem to count only the fact that he had a period of improvement into your valuation of his future potential without valuing at all events after that point. His collapse doesn't fit with your narrative so you ignore it and keep stating he improved when a graph of his season would show an overall flat to negative trend in productivity. He was among the most disappointing rookies in the league bro. 20 year olds can bounce back from those. 24 year olds usually don't. In retrospect it was probably a really bad idea for him to take an entire year off in college from playing ball to transfer.

Young averaged 2.7 rebounds in 31.8 minutes per game. He also averaged just 1.2 assists. In 26.2 minutes, Johnson had 3.0 rebounds (3.6 pace in Young's time or 33% better) and 1.9 assists (2.3 pace for Young's time or nearly twice as many as Young per minute). Young's also two years older than Johnson and been in the league four years so by now, he should have assimilated. But good comparison. Johnson is only 33% greater in his rebounding rate and nearly 100% greater in his assists rate despite having far less experience.

I brought up Young because he's an empty calories scorer and that's the mold that Johnson appears to fit into given his low rebounding rates and middling (for his position) assist rates.

Among the 34 rookies who received the most playing time in the NBA this season, Johnson was 30th in rebound rate.

Johnson rated 10th out of those 34 rookies in assist rate, but all but four of those he beat were post-players.

While Nick Young is the ultimate empty calorie player, Johnson hasn't shown much to indicate he's a well balanced breakfast.

Regarding shooting being his primary value to a team, that's easily debatable. He was known for what he brought to the table in all phases of the game: defense, rebounding, passing, blocking shots, and yes, shooting too.

Debatable by whom? This position is just laughable. He had a negative defensive on/off rating so clearly he wasn't some great defensive force and it's not like he was replacing good defensive players to begin with so there isn't a huge swing here. What we're looking at is that he was a marginally worse defensive player than Martell Webster and Wayne Ellington, who aren't exactly defensive studs.

We've already blown apart rebounding as a strength. He was one of the worst rebounding rookies in his class.

Passing? Outside of Luke Ridnour, no one on the Wolves was known for passing. Did you watch their offense and how he operated within it? There's a reason the team was 25th in the league in assists. He may have been a marginal improvement in this area over some of his teammates, but that's because they were all bad.

Blocking shots? What are you talking about? On a per-minute or per-possession basis he was one of the worst on the team.

And as for shooting, I agree he was known for it. Mostly for sucking at it. The stats here are unequivocal and have already been discussed at length. That's a technical crush against you.

Try being a rookie professional athlete and unable to practice with your teammates for most of camp. A point I noticed you conveniently did not address by the way.

Seriously? That should equate to a slow start, not a mid and late-season collapse. As an excuse it doesn't explain what actually happened. Please try harder next time.

As to your predictions I will make a public wager with you on some index of the under. I would honestly be very surprised if he's playing 30 minutes per game. His minutes went down during the season even after they traded Corey Brewer away, which should have opened up time for him.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Trade Idea;

Minny calls up Utah and offers them; Flynn, Wesley Johnson, Darko, for Okur, the 12th pick & our G.S. pick next year. What would you guys do? I think that you gambe and take the deal. Flynn would be a great speedy little backup. Johnson has a 7 ft 1 wingspan, and Darko would be a great backup. Plus there hasn't been a new thread in a day or to.

Jazz say no. We're better off with the picks. Okur is an expiring that can be flipped for something else worthwhile. Wesley Johnson doesn't give us much that we don't have in Hayward and Miles (did I just say that?), Flynn doesn't move me more than a Brandon Knight, Reggie Jackson or maybe even Jimmer, and I don't want to be known as the team that has Darko. Plus next year's lotto pick from GS could be an important piece.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

That "improvement" is most manifest by that aforementioned stretch of games. The irony of you accusing me of picking and choosing is more than a little ironic given that you originally based your argument around the "start" of the season so I went with the first 20% of his games and then compared that to the entirety of the last four-plus months of the season to show that thsoe last four-plus months were worse. I'm not denying his hot-stretch happened, but the fact that it's a bump in anotherwise relatively consistently awful season is a story about an anomaly, not a story about improvement.

You've chosen a single narrative that allows you to say that the three week stretch is the "real" Wesley Johnson from which we should project future growth. That's you picking the convenient evidence, not me apparently picking and choosing only the most damning 90% of the schedule and saying that's the relevant part of his performance.

Again, you chose to narrow it to those three weeks. I stated up until 2011 which implies the preceding three months. You choose to look at it as an anomaly. I choose to look at it as progression, only followed by The Hindenburg. We can agree to disagree here.



You didn't talk about him much during the season, but you are the name I most strongly associate with Johnson just like you're the name I most strongly associate with Courtney Lee on the board. You are not denying that you wanted the Jazz to draft him and talked about him a lot in the run-up to the draft, nor that you suggested trading up to get him. We don't really have competing narratives here. If you aren't his biggest supporter here, why are you bothering to spend time defending him?

I'm defending myself. You put words in my mouth. I said we should trade up to get him because I thought that was much more realistic than being able to trade up for Favors or Cousins.

Speaking of bad KEK predictions: How did that Orlando title prediction for this season work out for you?

Touche.

Pure bluster. What fact did I twist? You don't name any. Do you deny that the stats unequivocally indicate that Johnson was among the worst shooters among all rookies? Do you have any argument to the contrary? And you know as well as I do that my "I don't need to win .... to prove my argument that" was a response to your strawman acting like I was claiming he was a bad player because he didn't shoot 50% for every game in the season. I'm saying he's a bad player because he doesn't have a single NBA level skill. There's a real difference there. In retrospect we actually should have seen this coming earlier. I usually don't pay attention to college play but I'm honestly a little surprised he was the 4th pick in the draft given his age and his not-exactly-overwhelming college stats.

Also, "future lawyer?" Wtf? Are you a future adult? A future teacher? A future pornography addict?

Passing the bar exam and getting a job at a firm equals being a lawyer? That's a serious question. I thought you were just the partner's bitch pretty much for the first few years and far from an actual lawyer. That's not a criticism. Just what I thought. What is your title?

I understand that your position is that he improved up until December. However you seem to count only the fact that he had a period of improvement into your valuation of his future potential without valuing at all events after that point. His collapse doesn't fit with your narrative so you ignore it and keep stating he improved when a graph of his season would show an overall flat to negative trend in productivity. He was among the most disappointing rookies in the league bro. 20 year olds can bounce back from those. 24 year olds usually don't. In retrospect it was probably a really bad idea for him to take an entire year off in college from playing ball to transfer.

Actually, I did address it. And I stated I thought his dramatic drop in production could be him having hit the rookie wall.


I brought up Young because he's an empty calories scorer and that's the mold that Johnson appears to fit into given his low rebounding rates and middling (for his position) assist rates.

Among the 34 rookies who received the most playing time in the NBA this season, Johnson was 30th in rebound rate.

Perhaps that's because most of the rookies who played were bigs who post up often and are in the paint. Maybe not but oh...

Johnson rated 10th out of those 34 rookies in assist rate, but all but four of those he beat were post-players.

...wait, yes they are.

While Nick Young is the ultimate empty calorie player, Johnson hasn't shown much to indicate he's a well balanced breakfast.

A rookie wing not impressing. I'm shocked.



Debatable by whom? This position is just laughable. He had a negative defensive on/off rating so clearly he wasn't some great defensive force and it's not like he was replacing good defensive players to begin with so there isn't a huge swing here. What we're looking at is that he was a marginally worse defensive player than Martell Webster and Wayne Ellington, who aren't exactly defensive studs.

We've already blown apart rebounding as a strength. He was one of the worst rebounding rookies in his class.

Passing? Outside of Luke Ridnour, no one on the Wolves was known for passing. Did you watch their offense and how he operated within it? There's a reason the team was 25th in the league in assists. He may have been a marginal improvement in this area over some of his teammates, but that's because they were all bad.

Blocking shots? What are you talking about? On a per-minute or per-possession basis he was one of the worst on the team.

And as for shooting, I agree he was known for it. Mostly for sucking at it. The stats here are unequivocal and have already been discussed at length. That's a technical crush against you.

"if your primary asset to the team is scoring"...You obviously meant what you perceived his primary asset to be based on his in-season numbers. I meant what the team perceived his biggest assets to be given his college reputation.


Seriously? That should equate to a slow start, not a mid and late-season collapse. As an excuse it doesn't explain what actually happened. Please try harder next time.

At what?

As to your predictions I will make a public wager with you on some index of the under. I would honestly be very surprised if he's playing 30 minutes per game. His minutes went down during the season even after they traded Corey Brewer away, which should have opened up time for him.

I'm game, depending on how the bet's outlined.

Kicky, let's just stop it here. It'll be never ending so we'll have to just agree to disagree as to why his season was what it was.

Come up with a solid bet. Per minute numbers are probably the only fair to do it I would think.

 

[GVC]

Yikes. I just took a look at the T-Wolves draft history.

1995 was the last time they drafted a player who became an All-Star while playing for the T-Wolves (Kevin Garnett).

 

[Ben10]

Yikes. I just took a look at the T-Wolves draft history.

1995 was the last time they drafted a player who became an All-Star while playing for the T-Wolves (Kevin Garnett).

So that would be the only time they drafted a player that became an All-Star then. That is not a good track record esp considering how often they have picked in the lottery during there existence.

Edit: Are you not counting Kevin Loves All-Star game this year for some reason?

 

[Harambe]

Johnny Flynn's pretty good... but I want Rubio's rights.