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Discussion in 'Utah Jazz' started by Shad, Apr 18, 2019.
Suck my meat. Get Conley.
I don't see this really. Most of the bottom three teams the last 5 years have gotten to the bottom by being intentionally bad. I hate it, but it's a viable strategy. We tanked a year and it was awful... we are too functional to ever be bottom 3 so we would be punished if we were a middling lotto team. Taking some of the benefit out of tanking benefits functional teams that have an injury or two or just a somewhat down year. NBA can't give huge benefit to teams that aren't competing.
Plus its the same damn teams drafting in the top 5 every year... some can't get out of their own way so they should be rewarded with premier talent? This system isn't perfect but better than before. I'd like to see a pretty drastic overhaul and make it a bid system where you get draft capital or points based on where you finish... allow teams to carryover points or capital if there aren't players they like or bid appropriately on guys they do like... would also facilitate trades because you could trade some of your point allocation versus just a bad second rounder for guys.
I've taken a ton of flack for being opposed to getting Conley. Let me breakdown my thinking:
Conley (much of the same could be said for Love)
- Pros: upgrade over Rubio. Seems to solve some of our pressing needs of shooting and shot creation
- Cons: past his prime, pretty injury prone. $34 and $36 million the next two years.
- Cost: Rubio (renounce), Favors (trade or waive), at least one 1st rounder, maybe Exum or Crowder, future financial freedom
Older Max Guys (Tobias, Klay, Middleton, Kemba, Kyrie, KD, Kawhi)
- Pros: upgrade to anybody we currently have in their position
- Cons: none
- Cost: Rubio (renounce) and Favors (waive), future financial freedom
Younger Max or Near Max Guys (Russell and Brogdon)
- Pros: upgrade to Rubio or what we currently have
- Cons: might be overpaying to hope they reach better long term potential
- Cost: Rubio (renounce), Favors (in most cases) and some future financial flexibility
Multiple 2nd Tier Free Agents (Rozier, Lamb, Beverley, Randle, Bogdanovic, others)
- Pros: brought in to address at least one need and/or one position. Lower cost than max guys/Conley. Growth potential for most. Since they don't cost as much, they can be moved. Financial flexibility still exists.
- Cons: not a comprehensive addition or they would be max players. Some have to grow.
- Cost: for free agents, the cost would be a fair price or we wouldn't do it. Rubio (renounce). Maybe Favors (he leaves or he's picked up via waiver)
I think if we went with Conley, we would be forgoing the opportunity to chase Older Max Guys, Younger Max Guys or multiple 2nd Tier Free Agents. I don't think he makes us as good as the sacrifices it takes to get him and pay him. If we could sign Conley with $34 million of cap space, I would have hesitations. Giving up a 1st rounder and potentially Exum or Crowder too? No thanks.
I would prefer an offseason of Lamb ($13ish), Rozier ($13ish), Favors ($13ish) and a 1st to an offseason of just Conley. To me, that's aggressive thinking over one guy. Maybe it's Favors, Winslow and Olynyk through a trade. Or Beverley, Randle, and Olynyk. To think Conley is going to make that much of a difference is pretty foolish. And I'm tired of giving away 1st rounders to old injury prone PG's who only have a 1 or 2 year contract.
I'm very torn on whether I want us to go for long-term below max level players in this free agency. I think I still prefer staying pat than tying ourselves to mediocrity with players like Lamb or Jamychal Green. I would rather overpay for 1 year than have to pay Lamb 4/75 or something of the sort.
If some of the max'ish players wants to come to the Jazz, that's a no brainer - sign them. I think the next scenario I prefer is short-term(1? 1+1) type of deals to mediocre players rather than long-term big contracts to slightly better than mediocre players.
Here's the deal... we can still chase the free agents and if we lose out trade for Conley. A trade pre-free agency is basically impossible to cobble together enough salary.
So you chase Tobias and Kemba and if you miss you can push for Conley. Offering Exum and Crowder, a 2020 first, and cap space. Would save them a ton of money... they are up near the luxury tax if they bring back Wright and can save 30M by moving towards the floor... if they don't care about cap considerations they definitely care about saving the actual dollars. Exum is bad money so some of the "bad money" attached to Conley is offset. This would leave us with 15M in cap space to address other needs... so it is not just Conley or nothing... it's Conley and adding a mid tier free agent... one of Rozier or Lamb if you really want.
Guys like Conley absolutely make a difference... guys like Lamb and Rozier ain't it.
You're not losing financial freedom by trading Exum for a real player that is actually worth ~$35 million a year*. You're liberating yourself from ~$20 million in horrible salary.
*He's a quantified top-10 PG: 6th in PER and 9th in +/-. He's also a guy that's led a franchise to very solid and respectable success perennially.
- Crowder loves it here and we need waves of guys like Crowder to compete on the course of the season. A good team needs SF/PF guys who defend, play hard and can hit 3's. Trading him like a salary throw in is foolish.
- Selling Exum now to "clear his salary" is bad business. I haven't given up on him yet and I know others haven't either. I think he still plays a major role in our future. The guy has skills we need. We should be behind him instead of bashing him.
- If we wanted to trade for Conley AFTER we strike out in free agency and you have made it abundantly clear you want to move on from Rubio and Favors, then just offer Memphis Korver and a 1st for Conley. Without Favors, Rubio, Thabo, and Udoh, we have about $33 million cap space. There is zero reason to give up Crowder and Exum just to get rid of them.
Name them. Skills, specifically.
You do know that we need to make an offer that Memphis will actually accept right?
If you wouldn't trade Exum Crowder and a first for Conley then you're crazy tbh.
Defense, athleticism and the ability to get past his defender off the dribble. One cannot argue that he has those skills.
He needs to work on finishing and shooting. And of course he needs to stay on the court.
If he plays 70+ games next year, I guarantee you he's a bargain contract making around $10 million. We aren't the type franchise who can afford to give up on a player too early. Have we learned nothing from our recent experiences with Millsap, Matthews, Hood, Kanter, Carroll and others?
For the record, I love Crowder. I've been unabashed about this since before he was even drafted.
But the data says he's not a core player. I trade not-core players for core players 8 days a week.
-Crowder's problem is he just can't hit them with enough consistency. He gets a lot of wide open looks too, 33% is not good enough.
-Don't worry about Exum, no one wants him at 11 million a year he'll get another chance here. He's looking to be a repeat of CJ Miles, where you go into each season hoping this is his breakout year but ends up being a whiff.
Athleticism isn't a skill. Height isn't a skill. In his case, his athleticism actually hides his lack of skill, it doesn't demonstrate that he has it.
I am having an extremely difficult time thinking of a player that made a second-contract on this team that has shown less skill than Dante Exum.
I don't like the idea of waiting after free agency to go after Conley simply because we could easily strike out in free agency and then the Grizzlies could decide you know what we'll hold on to Conley and then we're f***** OR we could be chasing free agency options and they could trade Conley somewhere else in the meantime and when we strike out we're f*****.
We can't take this laidback approach of looking at all options and waiting to see if we get lucky. We need to be extremely aggressive.
If we are laidback and strikeout I'll rage. I might go find some cute fluffy bunnies to punch.
CJ Miles could play basketball. CJ Miles was also paid $4 million a year in non-cap years.
Characterizing going after players you want more as "laid-back" is incorrect.
Crowder literally doesn't move the 'Championship contender' needle a single inch.
It seems pretty obvious to me why the front office likes the treadmill so much, the fans love it even more.
If we get Mirotic for 15m a year, renounce Favors and trade Crowder, that's almost +10 million saved a year. As for backup PF, Ingles and Royce can do. Positionless basketball.
If we gave Memphis $30 million of 2019-20 savings, $36 million of 2020-21 savings, and a 2020 1st rounder, I think we've made a pretty fair offer.
Neither does a guy like Moe Harkless by himself. Or PJ Tucker by himself. Or Aminu by himself. Or the Morris brothers by themselves.
You don't just give those guys away if you have them and they love your franchise. In the positionless world of playoff basketball, you need those guys.