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Is there anybody who is assuming China is being accurate? I think we all know they aren't.

Anyways, based on our population, it was a given the US was going to have the highest numbers. Pretty poor way for people to frame it, imo.
Why based on our population? China is way not dense and populated.

It's not like USA has accurate numbers either. I think South Korea is probably closest to the most accurate.
 
We’re so ****ed



I think you'll agree, with statements like the above, so detached from any Earth bound reality, questions like this, regardless of how much Trump fans will protest, are bound to be asked:

Is Donald Trump letting New Yorkers die because it's a Democratic state?:

https://www.cityandstateny.com/arti...kers-die-covid-19-because-its-democratic.html

"Trump has a history of acting vengefully toward New York, which he’s become particularly displeased with since taking office..."
 
I think you'll agree, with statements like the above, so detached from any Earth bound reality, questions like this, regardless of how much Trump fans will protest, are bound to be asked:

Is Donald Trump letting New Yorkers die because it's a Democratic state?:

https://www.cityandstateny.com/arti...kers-die-covid-19-because-its-democratic.html

"Trump has a history of acting vengefully toward New York, which he’s become particularly displeased with since taking office..."
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I'm really starting to doubt that a planned vacation in June is going to happen. My guess is this peaks in April, starts to flatten/erode in May but the directive to isolate/cancel large events/travel continues into the summer to limit a second wind.

We've got to find a way to develop a vaccine in less than 12-18 months. If Bruce Willis, Ben Affleck and a crack team of oil drillers can hop aboard a spaceship and nuke an asteroid the size of Texas in 18 days, by golly we'll need to do better.
 
@JimLes @One Brow @Gameface You all need to read the entire article. It explains why engineers are better at predicting models than physicians. This person has helped create models in Liberia to quell ebola outbreaks. He did postdoctoral work at the the Center of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at Yale University’s school of public health. He has quite a bit of experience in the field.


Sounds like is more than qualified to speak on the subject.

Not sure why I was brought into this, but since you did I'll offer my thought.

I work for the Washington University School of Medicine. As one of the leading medical research institutions in the country, I can assure you that we are very much into modeling to predict the course of disease, whether it is trying to detect sepsis early on, or the spread of disease in population health. Doctors who spend their time studying population health models bring all the expertise of engineers who study population health models, but the additional knowledge of physicians. Similarly, the WHO are staffed with physicians who also do modeling, as is the CDC.

As for the article, it was high on opinion, low on real fact. The US population is not as socially isolated as Dr. Yamin seems to think it is. We'll exceed a 50% infection rate. But, even at 50%, with a 2% hospitalization rate, that's 3,500,000 people in hospital being in a country with less than a million beds and no decrease in the prevalence of other diseases. If we have a fatality rate of 0.5% (which is a very low estimate), that's 875,000 people who died directly of this virus, and more who will have died from lack of access to hospital beds if the spread of the disease is not slowed.
 
Is there anybody who is assuming China is being accurate? I think we all know they aren't.

Anyways, based on our population, it was a given the US was going to have the highest numbers. Pretty poor way for people to frame it, imo.
Doesn't China have like way more people than the US?

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Why based on our population? China is way not dense and populated.

It's not like USA has accurate numbers either. I think South Korea is probably closest to the most accurate.

Gee, I dunno. The fact that say, Italy has 60 million people and we have 327. Or that China has over a billion. Statistically important.

Regarding accuracy, the day of or day after China kicked Western journalists out, they dropped to like zero new cases a day. They're trying to blame the US Military for the virus. I think it's safe, and accurate, to not believe a thing coming out of their propaganda.
 
Also, BTW, like most Dems, Thriller wasn't actually a Biden supporter. The entire Democratic party just got drunk in Vegas one night. Soon they are going to wake up and be horrified to realize that they accidentally got married to a senile candidate who literally personifies everything they'd been previously claiming that they did not want.

Already there. He's still better than Trump.
 
Yes. And China, is uh...lying about their numbers.
That's not what you said in your post though.
You said that because of our population it's obvious that we would have the most infected in the world

If we were just going off population and nothing else then i would think it obvious that china would have the most infected.

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That's not what you said in your post though.
You said that because of our population it's obvious that we would have the most infected in the world

If we were just going off population and nothing else then i would think it obvious that china would have the most infected.

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That's fair. I should have added that.

If China wasn't lying out their ***, they'd have the highest numbers. But we have more cases than Italy, England, etc, because our population is higher. Percentage of cases based on population and adding in a starting point (one week in, two weeks in, etc) would make a lot more sense to me than just total numbers.
 
That's fair. I should have added that.

If China wasn't lying out their ***, they'd have the highest numbers. But we have more cases than Italy, England, etc, because our population is higher. Percentage of cases based on population and adding in a starting point (one week in, two weeks in, etc) would make a lot more sense to me than just total numbers.
Agreed.

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That's fair. I should have added that.

If China wasn't lying out their ***, they'd have the highest numbers. But we have more cases than Italy, England, etc, because our population is higher. Percentage of cases based on population and adding in a starting point (one week in, two weeks in, etc) would make a lot more sense to me than just total numbers.
China went into a lockdown that no western nation is capable of. It has been shown in several places now that lockdowns absolutely slow and can eventually stop new cases. It has also been shown that to go about our normal lives means that cases double every two to three days.

Until you've gotten this you are completely susceptible to infection. You have no immunity to it at all. There is nothing your body can do to prevent the infection. You will get infected if exposed. Then it's just a roll of the dice how serious your case is.
 
I would agree that I don't think the China numbers are accurate. That's just my opinion, not based on known fact, but I don't think a communist nation can be trusted to be forthcoming.

I just wish more people would pay mind to doctors, data scientists and those in the actual field vs. talking heads and jo schmo with a Twitter account. When you read into what they're saying, it's clear that the worst is yet to come.
 
Gee, I dunno. The fact that say, Italy has 60 million people and we have 327. Or that China has over a billion. Statistically important.

Regarding accuracy, the day of or day after China kicked Western journalists out, they dropped to like zero new cases a day. They're trying to blame the US Military for the virus. I think it's safe, and accurate, to not believe a thing coming out of their propaganda.

I'm still missing your point about the population. China has way more people so it should spread further unless they are doing a better job or the numbers are inaccurate.

I do agree their information is not trustworthy. Although I don't trust he information from USA on it either. Neither has a good track record albeit China's is worse. One person from China made that claim and it was widely disregard here in China. The number of cases didn't drop right after they kicked out some media. It actually sky rocketed after that. They changed the way the reported the numbers. It was very low at first (similar to the USA) for multiple reasons but it made a jump because they stated listing all cases not just confirmed and hospitalised cases. Regardless the number of cases have plummeted here because of strict lock down and strict testing everywhere. No one is seeing or hearing about many new cases except for people feeling overseas returning to China. Most things are opening up now except for strict quarantine for new arrivals here. Although I think it will come in a wave here again and another strict lockdown will happen again. China is most protective of Beijing where I'm currently at because they want to reopen business and protect the capital.
 
I would agree that I don't think the China numbers are accurate. That's just my opinion, not based on known fact, but I don't think a communist nation can be trusted to be forthcoming.

I just wish more people would pay mind to doctors, data scientists and those in the actual field vs. talking heads and jo schmo with a Twitter account. When you read into what they're saying, it's clear that the worst is yet to come.
No government should be trusted. They all have an agenda.

China did try to sweep this under the bridge here. But when it started to come to light the people generally demanded transparency. They didn't trust the government after SARS. The central government put a lot of effort into reporting, stopping it, and giving more info. The government here wants to maintain power obviously and part of that is not having large amounts of upset.

That said I still don't trust a lot of what they say. But it's been shown they were under reporting because they weren't testing enough and weren't reporting non serious cases. They starting changing this. America is has had the same issue. Based on the fact 80% are mild cases I think both missed out on tons of cases being reported.

It has more it less stopped here. I'm in large chat groups with Co workers all around China that are all forgeiners that freely talk about it and have seen it come almost to a hault here.
 
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