Trade deadline discussion

[Ron Mexico]

Of course every team has struggled offensively and defensively. Does every team have that where it leads to dropping a 3-1 series where the game is almost in the bag multiple different times to close it out? It’s rare but it indeed happens. Does every team drop 4 straight after being up 2-0 on a depleted team, and give up a 24 point lead that would have extended the series? It’s rare, but it happens. Now, how often do those two things happen? If you flip a coin and it lands tails 5 times in a row, does that happen? Yes, it does. Not often, but it does. What if you flip it again 7 times and it’s tails each time. I could conceivably happen. But what if you did both? You flipped the coin 12 times and it was tails all 12 times. We’re getting lost because we’re saying each flip is 50/50 so it’s no big deal, but we keep ended up on the wrong side of 50/50, which tells you it’s probably more than just chance ruling the day.

Were those offensive breakdowns against Denver and Clippers?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The issue is Bogey and the other starters/key players. We don't have enough defense, it's really that simple. To address that issue, you have change personnel or see internal improvement. Otherwise you're just hoping the same team has better results. To be fair, the Jazz have been so bad defensively it's difficult to be that bad again....but the same could be said after the DEN series and we all know what happened. We have seen any improvement schematically and hardly any improvement from individuals as well. It could happen. Better health from Conley and Mitchell will health, but I can't use health as an excuse when the Clippers were down an all time playoff performer like Kawhi.

The whole point about the minutes thing is that a player's impact scales with the minutes they play. I feel like that's pretty straightforward. If you're playing 6 minutes, your impact is limited. But if you're playing 25 that's obviously much more important. Depth does matter, but in the playoffs your best lineup and best players are going to matter much more than it did in the regular season. The same guys don't have to close every game, but having realistic options does make your best better. If you're playing 6 minutes, which could easily be picked up by Ingles/Clarkson, and aren't a realistic alternative to close games and provide the most value....your value is limited. But if we're talking about an 24 minute upgrade on the Ingles/Clarkson minutes...yeah I think that's pretty significant too. Those two just don't have much trade value if any at all.

I think the playoff data overwhelming supports a defense for offense trade. The regular season data does too. We've never really seen the "main" lineup in the playoffs besides the MEM series...and it did do well. I'm not going to throw that series out of my consideration, but to me it's clear that was a low level of competition compared to what the goals are. We also had a 115 defensive rating in that series, which would have been 29th in the league last season. So even though that series was a clear win, it didn't really do much for my concerns defensively. The main lineup in particular was not good defensively, even they though they played incredibly on offense.

But beyond the MEM series, we have two series where we were missing Bogey/Conley. Both are great offensive players, but we still managed to produce elite level offense. As concerned as I am about the defense, I have an extreme confidence in the offense. When it comes down to it, I'm confident that Don will get the job done. This backs the trend that goes back years in the regular season where we hardly miss a beat when someone has been out. The offensive talent we have on this roster is massive and adding a player like Rudy Gay has only added to that stockpile. So no, I don't think it's a certainty that we can't get better by moving Bogey. If Roco or Kyle Anderson played Bogey's minutes instead of more Ingles/Clarkson minutes it's not the same thing and maybe the offense would tank, but worse case scenario we can role with the same man-down team that has played at an elite level on offense. The upside is that you can play one of these guys and upgrade the defense while still playing the same high level of offense. Maybe that can only happen if they're playing instead of Royce, but right now we don't have other options.

If you want to talk about diminishing returns, we have to talk about the returns on stocking almost the entire team with offense first players. There's a limit to just how good you can be on offense and the Jazz are pretty close to approaching that in the playoffs even when down significant talent. The upper limit being the Jazz opponents of course. We have the talent to sustain our elite offense, this team has proven that. What we don't have is the talent on defense to play average defense, especially when adjustments get made later in the series. The problems in the playoffs are really clear to me. It's definitely not the offense. It's the defense and it could not be more lopsided. If we had Bogey against DEN or Conley versus the Clippers we might have been able to sneak away with the series win by outscoring the other team like we did with MEM. Those are really good players but don't address the weakness. With this lopsided roster, defensive talent is going to carry so much more weight. It really is the reverse of the teams that lost to HOU where it could not be more obvious that offense was the issue and that talent reflected those issues.

Put it this way...if we didn't have Bogey right now, would we thinking that Bogey is the exact type of player we need? I don't think we would. I think we'd be playing great offense, we'd consider him a great luxury to have, but our biggest need would still be a defender. That's why I'm willing to move Bogey for defense. I get the argument that we are unlikely to get a similar level player with a different skillset. Trades are difficult and trades that aren't young for old or financial moves are extremely rare to begin with. The trade market could be so barren that sitting on what we got might be the best option....but we should have been looking for this move. Nothing that's happened during this season has taught us much, so I'm not expecting a trade now after not making a trade in the summer when there were significantly more options. Although I do wonder if the FO is regretting not pulling the trigger on whatever the Ingles deal was. I think an Ingles/JC deal is more likely and I'd be in favor of that. I like our chances if we could move Bogey/Ingles/Clarkson for a decent defensive player.

I actually do think if we had Anderson or RoCo we’d be wishing we had a consistent second scorer like Bogey… we are under rating what he brings. If I can get a defensive upgrade for jc or Joe I do it… it better be at least a Marcus smart level upgrade or we lose that deal. I’d truly love to hear the realistic bogey trade proposals.

 

[infection]

Were those offensive breakdowns against Denver and Clippers?

Our defensive lapses were compounded with our inabilities to continue to put points on the board. Game 6 we put up 72 points in the first half. That’s elite offense. We put up 47 points in the second half. Putting up 119 points looks elite in composite. We put up 10 points in the last 5 minutes.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We get lost in the technical components of defense vs. offense. It goes without saying that the defensive issues are gigantic and a very easily exploitable Achilles heel. But there’s a larger overarching principle that’s slightly connected but slightly more important, and that’s the mental weakness component. We can talk about how the offense is good and can withstand shaving some luxuries off the bolster the defense, but even our great offense that looks amazing as a composite comes to an absolute halt in the moments where everything comes crashing down. We can look and blame the defense for spurring those funks and there’s a fair amount of truth to that, but the collapses are pervasive on both sides when the pressure heats up. Us being aware of that plays in to issues with our confidence and we will continue to play tight in those circumstances until that issue is well in the rear view. I’ve made the comparison previously that it’s like young people having “erectile dysfunction.” I see a lot of people who have been treated for ED who don’t have ED. The issue is the anxiety about their performance hampers their ability to be engaged in the moment, but they can’t be in the moment because they want to try to force the focus into them being able to preform, which worsens the issue. Prescriptions of Viagra or others function to alleviate anxiety and take off pressure. This is where we’re at. It doesn’t matter how good our offense is, it’s going to come up much more impotent in those moments. This is where Quin has a paradox where he wants to adamantly do the same things but our crunch time strategies offensive differ so largely from what our system really is. Yes, part of that is a function of changing dynamics of the game, but also we show that we don’t trust the system when it comes down to it. And this connects to whichever thread was talking about Conley… we need Conley to assert himself more in those games and demand the ball and control the pace. Our great offense is going to generate really poor looks from Donovan in the closing minute or two.

I’ve been writing on my phone with frequent pauses and interruptions so this may not be very cohesive. But the mental toughness and focus issue will be an issues regardless of what changes are made, defensive or offensive. There’s a role for someone on a team to help everyone keep composure and to stop the bleeding. That’s the coach. Quin has failed to keep his guys composed or put them in positions to alleviate the anxiety and allow them to relax (like taking a Viagra) and two of the most colossal playoff collapses have borne that out. We can blame the defense for issues Like losing to Indiana (x2), Detroit, NOP, SAS, a depleted Dallas team, or any of our embarrassing losses, but those are straight up lack of mental toughness and inability to keep focus. The defense just becomes fuel for the fire. The mental stuff is largely on Quin’s shoulders.

With the view of the defense being fuel for the mental meltdown fire, I do believe the only realistic option is to minimize the fuel. So yes, I think someone playing 20 mpg but not in the closing lineup does a decent amount to remove some fuel. If you grab and Anderson or a Covington you will improve some of that defense but they will be absorbed into a larger mental mass that will be susceptible to the mental collapses, and their other weaknesses will become part of that.

This is mostly on Quin and if this season so far is any indication, he’s completely lost on shoring up any of these systemic weaknesses. But of course we can simply blame personnel (don’t get me wrong, it’s a large part of the problem). But even with ****** defense, we should have never lost four straight games against a hobbled Clippers team, regardless of our own health. We should have never lost a 24 point lead to lose in the fashion we did, healthy backcourt or it. We should have never dropped a 3-1 lead and blown what I believe was a 17 point second half lead to lose game 7. But we keep doing that. Even the world’s ********* defense should squeak out of some of those collapses with at least something to show for it.

This is a timely comparison because our play lately has made me so limp.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Our defensive lapses were compounded with our inabilities to continue to put points on the board. Game 6 we put up 72 points in the first half. That’s elite offense. We put up 47 points in the second half. Putting up 119 points looks elite in composite. We put up 10 points in the last 5 minutes.

What about the rest of the series and the other series you were talking about?

Are there any changes in our roster to effect that? Was our main offensive weapon getting hurt have any effect on that moment?

 

[infection]

What about the rest of the series and the other series you were talking about?

Are there any changes in our roster to effect that? Was our main offensive weapon getting hurt have any effect on that moment?

Of course. My point isn’t to say our offense is abysmal and that our defense is good. I’m right there with everyone saying our defense is awful and we can sacrifice some offense, but the bigger issue is the mental component and that won’t be addressed purely by defense, and I reference the offense suffering in these moments as well to highlight what I feel is the overarching variable that’s effecting everything. Addressing the defense is good and necessary, but it may not be sufficient.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Of course. My point isn’t to say our offense is abysmal and that our defense is good. I’m right there with everyone saying our defense is awful and we can sacrifice some offense, but the bigger issue is the mental component and that won’t be addressed purely by defense, and I reference the offense suffering in these moments as well to highlight what I feel is the overarching variable that’s effecting everything. Addressing the defense is good and necessary, but it may not be sufficient.

Okay, fair enough. I don't see it that way, but I understand the point you're making.

I agree with the fact that adding a player that's better on defense isn't going to change things. We need to play team defense and put effort everywhere at it to improve that end. In that way I see it being "mental." I don't see much of mental weakness offensively especially in the playoffs. I see our playoffs weakness being health as by far our biggest issue, followed by poor team defense and effort throughout the entire game on that end, and 3rd being personnel. But changing personnel could change the other things.

 

[campaignist]

You guys that want to trade Bogey want to throw the baby out with the bath water… this team is great because of our offense… the offense is great because of Bogey. His efficient medium volume scoring of huge. The fact he can ramp up is part of the reason we survive when Mike or Don are out.

Homeboy has also been one of the few guys who has actually stepped up when needed. He also has defensive utility that people neglect. He ain’t Trae Young… he guarded Kawhi credibly and it wasn’t no damn mistake… he did it to Lebron too… stopper… no but held his own… he also guarded Towns and Jokic in the post this year… I mean I’m sure that won’t come in handy in the playoffs.

Y’all crazy.

Agreed. I was completely wrong in the off-season, I was pushing Bogie as the logical guy to move. He’s really not the problem, at least not the biggest one on defense. And I trust him more than pretty much anyone else on the team in crunch time, even Conley. Losing what he brings would be a much bigger hit than anyone is anticipating.

 

[KqWIN]

I actually do think if we had Anderson or RoCo we’d be wishing we had a consistent second scorer like Bogey… we are under rating what he brings. If I can get a defensive upgrade for jc or Joe I do it… it better be at least a Marcus smart level upgrade or we lose that deal. I’d truly love to hear the realistic bogey trade proposals.

We didn’t have Bogey for a series and played elite offensively and we didn’t have Conley and played elite offensively. I think there’s more than enough room to spare some offense for defense. Whether that’s Bogey/Ingles/Clarkson, I don’t think any of them should be off limits. Yeah, we’d miss them. But you know what I really miss right now? Not embarrassing ourselves defensively in the playoffs.

Conley would fit in this category too, but he’s just a lot better than them on both ends. He’s our best bet against Ja, CP3, and Curry….which is a testament to Mike but also embarrassing for the rest of the team.

If Bogey could get Smart, which might only be available if the Simmons-Brown trade happens, I’d do that. I know there are concerns about size, but to me Smart is better in every “big man” category on defense than Bogey.

Ideally you move Clarkson. I think he’s the least helpful and might get phased out during the playoffs….but nobody is going to want him right now.

We should have shipped someone to NOP this summer for Hart and some picks back. Too bad that fleecing window is probably over.

 

[Katastrofica]

We didn’t have Bogey for a series and played elite offensively and we didn’t have Conley and played elite offensively. I think there’s more than enough room to spare some offense for defense. Whether that’s Bogey/Ingles/Clarkson, I don’t think any of them should be off limits. Yeah, we’d miss them. But you know what I really miss right now? Not embarrassing ourselves defensively in the playoffs.

Conley would fit in this category too, but he’s just a lot better than them on both ends. He’s our best bet against Ja, CP3, and Curry….which is a testament to Mike but also embarrassing for the rest of the team.

If Bogey could get Smart, which might only be available if the Simmons-Brown trade happens, I’d do that. I know there are concerns about size, but to me Smart is better in every “big man” category on defense than Bogey.

Ideally you move Clarkson. I think he’s the least helpful and might get phased out during the playoffs….but nobody is going to want him right now.

We should have shipped someone to NOP this summer for Hart and some picks back. Too bad that fleecing window is probably over.

U know what would be best for start? Somehow force Don to play some defense. U can't make bojan faster or royce taller but what u can is make one of most athletic guy in team to put some effort atlest. Someone posted raptors info's and this is hilarious...

 

[KqWIN]

U know what would be best for start? Somehow force Don to play some defense. U can't make bojan faster or royce taller but what u can is make one of most athletic guy in team to put some effort atlest. Someone posted raptors info's and this is hilarious...

There is no doubt that Don’s defensive development is disappointing. He’s creating more turnovers this year….but his defense is still bad.

OTOH, Don has been a supernova on offense. Carrying us to elite offensive outputs despite being a man shouldn’t be taken lightly. When Bogey was out, Mike played great but his usage didn’t pick up. Don picked up the offensive load and did great. Same think when Mike was out. Bogey played well but his usage also dropped.

Don’s play can be frustrating and he takes too much on, even during the playoffs when he’s on fire. But his game scales to the playoffs so we’ll because he plays on hard mode the entire year (self inflicted much of the time). I think Bogey and Conley can be great offensive players as they have, but they can’t rise up the same way Don does.

If he’s going to be this damn good on offense it’s hard to complain. You can’t make Bogey and Ingles faster or have Jordan Clarkson play defense, but you might be able to trade one of them for someone who can.

 

[KqWIN]

Calling my shot. Nurkic for Oubre is gonna happen.