What's new
By:
Filters

2023 NBA Draft Megathread

Elizah Huge said:
Since 2015 there has been a total of 25 international players drafted in the first round. Only 4 of them are any good.

That’s a 16% hit percentage. The only hits are Doncic, Giddey, Porzingis and Sengun.
Click to expand...

In fairness, I'd consider Sabonis a Euro, and Killian Hayes showed some signs of life last year, but I get your point. There are a few others that are wait-and-see (e.g., Jovic, Dieng, etc.).
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Wtf is a "hit"?
Click to expand...
Exactly. If you trade and get something of value then I also consider it a hit. Exum would be a hit technically...or at least a neutral return or something like that.

If a team can avoid "bad" misses and narrow it to neutral and hits only then you will have a great team eventually because that is better than what most teams do. I would NOT want to put a rookie in unrealistic circumstances. Most players crumble. If a player high up on a draft board doesn't have the mental fortitude to succeed then I would trade out of that pick almost every time.

There are plenty of All-stars that occurred late in the draft selection were the expectations were low. I like Bilal at 28 because the expectations is low and he could succeed. If he gets picked at 9 he will crumble under the pressure.

Whereas Taylor Hendricks at the 9th pick could succeed because his role is narrow. Just backup minutes at the 4, play defense and shoot some threes. The pressure is not sky high and unrealistic.
 
Last edited:
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
In fairness, I'd consider Sabonis a Euro, and Killian Hayes showed some signs of life last year, but I get your point. There are a few others that are wait-and-see (e.g., Jovic, Dieng, etc.).
Click to expand...
In fairness? Sabonis was born in Portland and played at Gonzaga. This isn't a question of heritage, it's a question of competition level and the ability of scouting to assess players in their given context.

And "hit" is defined as the team being happy that they drafted the given player where they were drafted (a squishy definition, but outside of how subjective that is I actually dig it). Hayes ain't that.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Just did a quick run through of non-international players drafted since 2003.

I counted around 240 out of 515 drafted total that would be considered hits. That’s a 46.6% hit rate total. I understand this is just based merely on my opinion only.

Let’s say I’m off by a couple percent on the non-international players on the high side and I’m off by a couple percent on the international players on the low side.

That would still put it at around a 26% hit rate vs a 44% hit rate. My quick hypothesis would be that the hit rate for non-international is almost double that of an international player on the high side.
Click to expand...

And honestly this all makes sense. Its strange anyone would not think that international players are less likely to be good nba players than americans. The NBA is played in america. There are basketball hoops everywhere in america. America loves basketball. America is always the favorite to win the gold medal in the olympics.

I would guess that argentina has a higher bust ratio when they acquire american soccer players. Because americans arent as good at soccer as agentinians are.
 
whatthe said:
Exactly. If you trade and get something of value then I also consider it a hit. Exum would be a hit technically...or at least a neutral return or something like that.

If a team can avoid "bad" misses and narrow it to neutral and hits only then you will have a great team eventually because that is better than what most teams do. I would NOT want to put a rookie in unrealistic circumstances. Most players crumble. If a player high up on a draft board doesn't have the mental fortitude to succeed then I would trade out of that pick almost every time.

There are plenty of All-stars that occurred late in the draft selection were the expectations were low. I like Bilal at 28 because the expectations is low and he could succeed. If he gets picked at 9 he will crumble under the pressure.

Whereas Taylor Hendricks at the 9th pick could succeed because his role is narrow. Just backup minutes at the 4, play defense and shoot some threes. The pressure is not sky high and unrealistic.
Click to expand...

Exum is not a hit. Jazz fans were extremely unhappy about drafting exum.
 
whatthe said:
He is not a hit, true. But is he a bust? We traded him for Jordan Clarkson so I don't know if you classify him as having no value.
Click to expand...
He probably isnt techincally a bust, but he is very close. I wouldnt call him a bust, and I wouldnt call him a "hit".

He got to a 2nd contract, had some decent productive moments. It's not like he was Jarret Culver.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
He probably isnt techincally a bust, but he is very close. I wouldnt call him a bust, and I wouldnt call him a "hit".

He got to a 2nd contract, had some decent productive moments. It's not like he was Jarret Culver.
Click to expand...
Just because DL was in denial about Exum being a bust, doesn't mean he wasn't a bust. His 2nd contract was only offered in the hope that it would bear fruit by him getting better/healthier, certainly not for past contributions or production (he was one of the worst players in the league). Textbook sunken cost fallacy.

The best thing Exum ever did was get traded for Jordan Clarkson. By a lightyear.
 
fishonjazz said:
Exum is not a hit. Jazz fans were extremely unhappy about drafting exum.
Click to expand...
That’s not what I remember. I think there were some that wanted Gordon but as a whole Jazzfanz were excited about his drafting. If I recall nba draft experts were calling him the next Kobe I think as far as makeup and drive or something.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

Top