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The Non-Jazz NBA Thread in the Jazz Section

Saint Cy of JFC said:
IMO the biggest issue with Minnesota is that Jaden McDaniels hasnt taken any kind of skill jump in the past few years. He's still a really bad offensive player who cant make plays or even hit spot up 3's reliably.
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Yep, the idea of him is a lot better than the actual player.
 
HermanG said:
Wolves give up 12.3 points less (per 100 possessions) with Rudy on the court than they do when he is off. That is in the 95th percentile in the NBA and also the best on/off mark of his career. Their drop in quality vs last year is clearly on defense and its not on Rudy... its one of the guys supposed to fill in when he is out.

Randle is in the 15th percentile in defensive on/off. Wolves allow 8 points per 100 possessions more when he is on the court, vs when he is off..

How is that Randle number even possible when you actually get to share the court by one of the best for so many minutes?
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Rudy's on court defensive rating is the lowest percentile it's been since his rookie year. Rudy was so good on defense that he would carry anybody who he with. He's still great and one of the best in the league, but so far he's not at the level at the used to be. It's not his "fault", he has just
set a very high standard. If you don't think Rudy has dropped, I don't think you've given enough respect to him previously.

FWIW, his on/off court is also identical to what it was last year. They are worse in the minutes with Rudy on the court and in the minutes where he's off.

Handlogten's Heros said:
Wolves losing Kyle Anderson was a big deal. He’s the type of guy that smooths over injuries and multiple deficiencies. It’s a confluence of things but I still think they need a 6 week injury from Ant/Rudy/Randle? To miss the playoffs. We might get lucky if they land in the bottom part of the play in.
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Absolutely, besides the glue guy factor he's just a very good player (especially on defense). They are getting more from DDV than they lost from Anderson.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
IMO the biggest issue with Minnesota is that Jaden McDaniels hasnt taken any kind of skill jump in the past few years. He's still a really bad offensive player who cant make plays or even hit spot up 3's reliably.
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That's an issue, but always been an issue. McDaniels is overrated AF. To his credit, he's played well in the playoffs but I think that contributes to the idea he's wayyy better than he is.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
IMO the biggest issue with Minnesota is that Jaden McDaniels hasnt taken any kind of skill jump in the past few years. He's still a really bad offensive player who cant make plays or even hit spot up 3's reliably.
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The biggest issue with Minnesota is the lack of internal growth: McDaniels, Reid and NAW are the same players as last year, while Gobert and Conley noticeably declined. The only player who has visibly improved s Edwards and his improvement does not cancel out the aging of their core and the downgrade from the KAT trade.
 
The standings in the WC are going to be tight-packed. A couple wins could make the difference between the 6th seed and the 10th seed. In turn, that would mean the difference between the Jazz drafting at 13 or 14 and drafting at 21 or 22.
 
KqWIN said:
Rudy's on court defensive rating is the lowest percentile it's been since his rookie year. Rudy was so good on defense that he would carry anybody who he with. He's still great and one of the best in the league, but so far he's not at the level at the used to be. It's not his "fault", he has just
set a very high standard. If you don't think Rudy has dropped, I don't think you've given enough respect to him previously.

FWIW, his on/off court is also identical to what it was last year. They are worse in the minutes with Rudy on the court and in the minutes where he's off.



Absolutely, besides the glue guy factor he's just a very good player (especially on defense). They are getting more from DDV than they lost from Anderson.
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You cant seriously use a team stat to argue Rudys defensive drop when the counter argument is that their defensive drop is largely due to Randle, who also impacts that number (and who has the worst individual DRtg of any rotation guy there).

I mean Rui said that part of Lakers offensive gameplan on Week 1 was to exploit the fact that Randle just stands there on defense. He is a known commodity and It hurts them the most in transition as he doesnt run back. Transition is one area where their defense has gone significantly worse from last year.
 
HermanG said:
You cant seriously use a team stat to argue Rudys defensive drop when the counter argument is that their defensive drop is largely due to Randle, who also impacts that number (and who has the worst individual DRtg of any rotation guy there).

I mean Rui said that part of Lakers offensive gameplan on Week 1 was to exploit the fact that Randle just stands there on defense. He is a known commodity and It hurts them the most in transition as he doesnt run back. Transition is one area where their defense has gone significantly worse from last year.
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You used a team stat as well. On/Off is a team stat. On/Off actually uses less individual stats than On court alone. If you look at the stats that aim to parse out individual impact, it's not really a conversation. Rudy is down across the board.

Two things can be true, Randle is both not a good defender and Rudy is not as good as he used to be. IMO, if you don't think Rudy has dropped you highly underrated how good he was previously. Rudy used to carry defense no matter who his teammates were. We saw him do it for years right here in UTA. The fact that he cannot do that now, I see that as slippage.
 
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I think I'm ready to actively root for Minny losses. They are bad enough that I think it could actually matter if they win 38 games or 45 games this season.
 
KqWIN said:
You used a team stat as well. On/Off is a team stat. On/Off actually uses less individual stats than On court alone. If you look at the stats that aim to parse out individual impact, it's not really a conversation. Rudy is down across the board.

Two things can be true, Randle is both not a good defender and Rudy is not as good as he used to be. IMO, if you don't think Rudy has dropped you highly underrated how good he was previously.
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His defensive on/off differential of 12.3 points is the best mark of his entire career, so the numbers arent down across the board.

However my argument isnt about Rudys level and you may be right about that. I have watched just few all possession recaps of Wolves thus far, and to me Rudy looked fine.. but thats a small sample.

What I do know is that Randle is a low effort defender, and that Rudy hates low effort defenders. I bet he is getting closer to one of his classic boiling points.
 
HermanG said:
His defensive on/off differential of 12.3 points is the best mark of his entire career, so the numbers arent down across the board.

However my argument isnt about Rudys level and you may be right about that. I have watched just few all possession recaps of Wolves thus far, and to me Rudy looked fine.. but thats a small sample.

What I do know is that Randle is a low effort defender, and that Rudy hates low effort defenders. I bet he is getting closer to one of his classic boiling points.
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I said the numbers that parse out his individual metrics are down across the board. His EPM, BPM, LEBRON ect. All these metrics attempt to isolate the impact of a single player versus his teammates in various ways. On/Off court is team dependent, and I don't have a problem with it being team dependent but it isthe most team dependent number brought up in this discussion.

I think Randle is getting too much heat for the Wolves struggles. There are a lot of reasons why they are worst this season. Rudy has slipped, Mike has completely fallen off a cliff, and Anderson is gone. I think the first two are inevitable. Even if they bounce back in the short term, father time is undefeated (unless LeBron). Their play should be expected to drop off and that is independent of whether Randle is here or not. Many of the same issues would be present with or without the trade happening. I just think people are scapegoating Randle too much.

When it comes to Rudy in particular, I have an extremely high opinion of him and I'm not seeing the same level of play this year. Like I said, it's not his "fault"...but IMO what made Rudy who he was is that it didn't matter who was next to him. He has carried plenty of bad defenders during his years. If he's not a one man show, that's an indication he's slipped or not playing as well because he was really that good.
 
KqWIN said:
I said the numbers that parse out his individual metrics are down across the board. His EPM, BPM, LEBRON ect. All these metrics attempt to isolate the impact of a single player versus his teammates in various ways. On/Off court is team dependent, and I don't have a problem with it being team dependent but it isthe most team dependent number brought up in this discussion.
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Lmao. On/off by name, definition and nature is meant to represent how the team performs while you are on vs off. It uses team performance indicators over individual ones as the point of it is to measure how the team performs with and without you.

You gotta wrap your head around this better. Individuals metrics are influenced by team and teammates more than on/off, which is more team performance agnostic.

E.g. it doesnt matter how ****** your team TO% is.... if that number is better when you are on the court it gives a positive indication.

Those numbers are not comparable between teams, but it is somewhat within a team. On/off is impacted by fixed rotations (especially fixed player pairings).

Its how Rudy can be 95th percentile while another starter in the same team can simultaneously be 15th percentile.
 
HermanG said:
Lmao. On/off by name, definition and nature is meant to represent how the team performs while you are on vs off. It uses team performance indicators over individual ones as the point of it is to measure how the team performs with and without you.

You gotta wrap your head around this better. Individuals metrics are influenced by team and teammates more than on/off, which is more team performance agnostic.

E.g. it doesnt matter how ****** your team TO% is.... if that number is better when you are on the court it gives a positive indication.

Those numbers are not comparable between teams, but it is somewhat within a team. On/off is impacted by fixed rotations (especially fixed player pairings).

Its how Rudy can be 95th percentile while another starter in the same team can simultaneously be 15th percentile.
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I understand the use of on/off. Point is, it is team dependent. Like I said, I've got no problem with it being team dependent. I'm saying you can't dismiss something for being team dependent and then use something that is also team dependent, which on/off is. Both on/off and strictly on court rating have a place in discussion despite the fact that they are team dependent. A player can have a higher on/off one year and still be worse than he in a year where his on/off was lower. And again, I've mentioned the stats the actually attempt to isolate a player's impact independent of teammates. Rudy's drop off is drastic in those metrics. So yeah, the on/off is really great for Rudy this year. But on the other hand, we have all these other things that point to some slippage.

We're talking in circles at this point, but I'll just leave it at this: I think Rudy played at a significantly higher level than this last year and in previous seasons. What made Rudy who he is was that no matter who he played with, he was going to produce elite defense when he was on the court and he was going to play enough total minutes that it would amount to an elite overall defense for your team. This is why I value on court rating alone. With Rudy, he was good enough that no matter who he was with you always got elite defense. If you don't think he was better before, I think you're underselling just how good he was, but we'll have to agree to disagree. He can always bounce back, and maybe he will as chemistry grows. I would feel like I'm disrespecting Rudy if I think his individual play has always been what we're seeing this year.
 
HermanG said:
You cant seriously use a team stat to argue Rudys defensive drop when the counter argument is that their defensive drop is largely due to Randle, who also impacts that number (and who has the worst individual DRtg of any rotation guy there).

I mean Rui said that part of Lakers offensive gameplan on Week 1 was to exploit the fact that Randle just stands there on defense. He is a known commodity and It hurts them the most in transition as he doesnt run back. Transition is one area where their defense has gone significantly worse from last year.
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I agree with you. For Rudy is not down, but his motivation may falling down at some part of the game. You give 100% when you see your teammates doing the same. When you play defense with a plot Randle, you definitely get tired and boring and cut some effort. I don't see any slow down from Rudy . Last night 20 Rebound ( 8 offensive) ...
 
Elizah Huge said:
It’s still early but I immediately hated the KAT/Randle deal for the Timberwolves this season. It helps them longer-term cap wise but a travesty for this season which is amazing for us. How great would it be if they sucked this year when we own their pick after making the WCF last year when we didn’t.
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I mean I think this was the whole point of sending them Conley. He was good short term but would then fall off a cliff forcing them to make some tough financial choices.
 
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