2020 Presidential election

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by gandalfe, Dec 31, 2018.

  1. Catchall

    Catchall Well-Known Member 2019 Prediction Contest Winner

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    Some among the Democratic 'elite' believe that if Sanders gets the nomination, Trump will win in a landslide and the identity of the Democratic party will be broken for 1 or 2 additional election cycles.

    What the Dems should be doing is asking Klobuchar and Buttigieg to get out of the race, so their support can fall behind one or more of the other moderate candidates who can compete with Bernie.

    What it appears the Dems are going to do instead is to keep all the candidates in the race to keep the vote divided and prevent Bernie from getting a majority to win the nomination outright.
     
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  2. Zombie

    Zombie Well-Known Member

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    It's cute that people still believe this is the rationale behind the DNC elites being against Bernie's nomination.

    They're much more afraid of him winning.
     
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  3. One Brow

    One Brow Well-Known Member

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    You are ignoring, again, that much of the support for Klobuchar or Buttigieg would actually go to Sanders.
     
  4. Catchall

    Catchall Well-Known Member 2019 Prediction Contest Winner

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    Some of it might. Much of it would go to Warren, Biden and Bloomberg.
     
  5. One Brow

    One Brow Well-Known Member

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    What evidence are you basing that on?
     
  6. sirkickyass

    sirkickyass Moderator Emeritus Staff Member

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    I'll come right out and say it:

    I think Bernie will lose 40 states minimum and his nomination guarantees that Trump is reelected. Bernie's tone and his most ardent followers are so toxic that I would have difficulty voting for him. And I'm a lifelong dem.

    Bernie shrinks the size of the tent. Period.
     
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  7. Catchall

    Catchall Well-Known Member 2019 Prediction Contest Winner

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    I don't think anyone believes that Sanders would win a general election (either party).

    Edit: except you and Cy
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2020
  8. Catchall

    Catchall Well-Known Member 2019 Prediction Contest Winner

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    I think Trump would win by a margin like 325-195. I don't think he'd carry 40 states, but Trump would win states like Virginia, New Hampshire and probably Wisconsin again, along with the primary swing states.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2020
  9. sirkickyass

    sirkickyass Moderator Emeritus Staff Member

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    Not really. The differences between Sanders and the "moderate group" of the candidates are fundamentally pretty negligible when you're talking about domestic policy goals.

    The biggest policy issue is health care. The difference between "Medicare for All" and "Medicare for All Who Want It" is about violence of approach. The former seeks to abolish all insurance within four years - the later provides for a natural transition between two systems.

    Democrats want more robust financial regulation and and a more progressive income tax. Bernie just wants MORE of those same things.

    Bernie, and his very online army, don't care AT ALL how someone who isn't already among the converted will receive their message. They are blunt, uncompromising, and armed with the moral certitude that anyone who disagrees with them isn't just wrong, but immoral. They are blind to their candidate's obvious liabilities and they manage to piss off even committed liberals with regularity.

    It would be a DEBACLE for the party if Bernie gets the nom. He might single-handedly swing the Senate race McSally's way in my home state. It would be BAD.
     
  10. sirkickyass

    sirkickyass Moderator Emeritus Staff Member

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    The Bernie people are fervently convinced that millions of people who aren't engaged with the political process will show up and vote their guy in. So it doesn't matter that they de-mobilize many people who are already habitual voters.
     
  11. Zombie

    Zombie Well-Known Member

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    Well us and the plethora of polling that everyone who makes this argument continues to ignore.
     
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  12. sirkickyass

    sirkickyass Moderator Emeritus Staff Member

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    We'll see what the numbers are after months of stories about him lionizing the soviet union and hanging out with the Sandanistas.

    Bernie really has not ever had a real campaign where someone went after him for this stuff.
     
  13. Catchall

    Catchall Well-Known Member 2019 Prediction Contest Winner

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    Socialism historically has meant that a central government controls the means of production (i.e., most sectors of the economy). If you look at Bernie's proposed Green New Deal, he wants to nationalize the energy and transportation industries, not just healthcare. He wants loose immigration and other progressive social programs that have zero chance of getting through Congress regardless of which party holds the majority.
     
  14. Eminence

    Eminence Well-Known Member

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    Why I'm against "Medicare for All Who Want It" - the Medicare for All bit will once get axed when R's take back the top office (if it's even still "for All" by the time it gets passed). There are different versions, but Pete's has an atrocious version of Obama's mandate/fine in it that would involve the tax system. Not at all interested.
     
  15. Catchall

    Catchall Well-Known Member 2019 Prediction Contest Winner

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    Bernie is selling anger to the younger generation, fueled by economic inequality. The economic inequality is real, and it's a real problem. It's a fair topic. The reality is that wealth accumulation is mostly generational, and the Baby Boom generation now owns most of the real estate and the stocks. America's middle-class has been disappearing over the last 25 years, and young people, saddled with college debt and struggling to earn decent wages, are finding it difficult or impossible to own a home and raise a family in most major cities.

    The Democratic party is clearly split between 'progressives' and 'moderates.' Neither side seems to want to accommodate the other.
     
  16. Zombie

    Zombie Well-Known Member

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    We're convinced of this because this is exactly what his campaign has been doing.

    As for depressing turnout, if Dems can't rally behind Bernie after four years of talking about how important it is to get Trump out of office and to "vote blue no matter who" then it will be on their heads if Trump wins.
     
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  17. Catchall

    Catchall Well-Known Member 2019 Prediction Contest Winner

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    If Bernie is that strong a candidate, he should have more than 25%-35% support among Democrats. He should be in the 45%-55% support range right now.
     
  18. Saint Cy of JFC

    Saint Cy of JFC Well-Known Member

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    Every candidate has toxic followers online. Bernie supporters are by far the least, it's just a media narrative.
     
  19. Zombie

    Zombie Well-Known Member

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    The reason the DNC elites fear a Bernie presidency is because he represents a threat to their power structure, not because of some policy differences that at the end of the day may not amount to much.
     
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  20. Zombie

    Zombie Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't work like that when there are half a dozen candidates lol.
     
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