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Sirkickyass said:
Since we've had a mini-debate about quants vs. simple averages in polls I'll tell you this at this point in the race in terms of how close it will be so you can judge the performance of more sophisticated analysis at a later date.

The Big 4 regression guys in this election (Silver, Linzer, Wang, and Jackman) have all converged on 332 as the most likely number of electoral votes for Obama. The second most likely is 303 electoral votes. The third most likely is 347. I suspect all of those numbers reflect a race that is not as close as you believe (personally I suspect 303 is the right number) and it will be interesting to get your take on this after we get the final result.
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I think they are counting on numbers that will not hold up today.
 
I haven't seen any numbers but it's being reported that exit polls show that the race is incredibly tight.

R: NC, FL
O: OH, NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: VA, CO, IA
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Obama wins those 5 and it's over regardless of where VA, CO or IA end up.
 
Sirkickyass said:
I voted for Jill Stein.

Arizona is non-competitive. Romney has always had the state. The real reason to turn-out is the Flake/Carmona Senate election (which Flake will probably win anyway).

I don't know if you're interested in hearing about why I like Stein as it kind of flies in the face of the premise of your question (which presumed I was voting for one of the two major candidates). Also I've been successfully trolling The Madame (who voted for Obama) by pointing out repeatedly that I'm the bigger feminist now.
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Yeah, I really am interested actually. Why Stein and not Obama or Romney? I'd love the long version too. Dead serious.
 
PearlWatson said:
If exit polls are close now just wait until all the Republicans get off work. :D
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Democrats have been busy shopping on the food stamps your hard works provides.
They might be a little late the polling booths as well.


little hint(we like to shop while yall are at work, less lines and all)
 
Revolution 9 said:
Democrats have been busy shopping on the food stamps your hard works provides.
They might be a little late the polling booths as well.


little hint(we like to shop while yall are at work, less lines and all)
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Not only that, but most of us democrats haven't even got up yet. Wait till we start getting out of bed, then we'll see a major shift in the polls, lol.

Seriously though, if the polls are close, Romney is finished. Obama already holds a commanding lead among early voters. Romney has to make up a lot of ground in order to win.
 
Obama is kicking butt in NH - 28 out of 43 votes cast.

Might as well close up shop now - good night.
 
Sirkickyass said:
If Obama gets over 300 electoral votes (meaning that Ohio could have swung either way and it wouldn't have mattered) will you acknowledge that whatever it is you've been reading that gives you such confidence that Romney will actually win is full of **** and untrustworthy?
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I ain't a poll clinger like your ilk. I'm going purely on the redskin rule
 
Stoked said:
It is close. You can piss and moan all you want but it is. Simple fact.

I can see one candidate win all the toss ups but I doubt it. E ven if they did it would be by close margins.

I say Romney wins, CO, FL, NC, VA, NH and OH.

I say Obama wins, PA, NV, IA, WI, MN and MI.

Potential surprise loss for Romney is FL and surprise win for him is PA.
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Doesn't sound like Romney is doing so hot in either of these states early on.
 
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