Coronavirus


LogGrad98

LogGrad98

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Joe Bagadonuts said:
This will be my last message on this site. I've been traveling and didn't have time to read or respond to the multiple messages over the last few days. I'm not sure there is much point in doing so anymore or in participating on this increasingly toxic site. The characterizations some have made about me are miles off the mark. I believe that the characterizations of many of the events under discussion are also wildly incorrect. Unfortunately it is also very clear that people are committed to their own narratives. I worry where these dramatic divides will eventually take our great nation. I sincerely wish all of you the best and I hope amicable solutions to our political divide eventually become available to us.
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Sorry to hear that Joe. You provided a more level-headed response from the Republican perspective than babe or jazzyfresh or any of the other trolls, without being trollery. But I understand too that if you are a die-hard Trump supporter there just is no way to justify this in any way that sounds sane, or any of the other things that have happened recently like Trump's call to the governor of GA.

I wish you well, but I do hope you come back, we need more level-headed people from the republican perspective, because it is beginning to feel more and more that all the republicans have to offer is crazy on top of crazy.

Good luck and take care bro.
 


One Brow

One Brow

Well-Known Member
Joe Bagadonuts said:
This will be my last message on this site. I've been traveling and didn't have time to read or respond to the multiple messages over the last few days. I'm not sure there is much point in doing so anymore or in participating on this increasingly toxic site. The characterizations some have made about me are miles off the mark. I believe that the characterizations of many of the events under discussion are also wildly incorrect. Unfortunately it is also very clear that people are committed to their own narratives. I worry where these dramatic divides will eventually take our great nation. I sincerely wish all of you the best and I hope amicable solutions to our political divide eventually become available to us.
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I'm pretty sure you have me on ignore, and so won't see this.

Our interactions didn't have to be toxic for you. We could have engaged in research together, suggesting resources to each other, etc. As acrimonious as (for example) Archie Moses and I get, at the end of the day we each recognize the other is making a genuine effort to find the truth. You and I could have had that type of relationship as well, but I never thought you were interested in it.

So, I wish you good fortune. I have no doubt you will find yourself a comfortable site where your views are rarely challenged. Enjoy it.
 
The Thriller

The Thriller

Well-Known Member

We’re approaching 4,000 deaths per day and 400,000 deaths total. I’m old enough to remember posters on here blasting experts who predicted this. It’s almost like right wing media and Facebook aren’t reliable sources of information.
 
S

Scat

Well-Known Member
JazzGal said:
I got my first dose of the COVID vaccine today. Yay!

Sent from my moto z3 using JazzFanz mobile app
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For what it is worth, my daughter works for U of U medical and the inside scoop is that the 2nd shot is a bitch, to the point where they are given 2 days PTO after the 2nd shot. It has been described as the worst flu ever. She had her first shot Wed. She is not looking forward to the next.
 
JazzGal

JazzGal

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Scat said:
For what it is worth, my daughter works for U of U medical and the inside scoop is that the 2nd shot is a bitch, to the point where they are given 2 days PTO after the 2nd shot. It has been described as the worst flu ever. She had her first shot Wed. She is not looking forward to the next.
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My bestie had her 2nd shot yesterday and is having no side effects. But yeah, I've heard plenty of people have issues. Hopefully I can get it on a Friday afternoon.

Sent from my moto z3 using JazzFanz mobile app
 
magic

magic

Well-Known Member
The Thriller said:
View attachment 10033
Experts warned that we'd see 3,000 deaths per day this winter. And look at where we are.

We'll be near 350,000 deaths by the end of this year and will certainly be over 400,000 by February... Like exactly what the experts predicted. Your takeaway shouldn't be to lash out at me, downplay the virus, or to otherwise double down on your stubbornness. Your takeaway should be two-fold, first, to try listening to experts next time instead of berating them because your crappy news sources preach distrust in experts and institutions and secondly to find better news sources. Fox news, Newsmax, OAN, Ben Shapiro, Rush, Turning Point, and Facebook aren't reliable news sources. NPR, the NY Times, and The Post are. They have proper vetting of material so while they do make mistakes and do have a bias, they're minimized because of the vetting. The worst thing you can do is double down in your stupidity. Then you learn nothing and continue in ignorance.

For those of you interested, this is from my own spreadsheet:
View attachment 10034
Utah's Info (I didn't keep track of some of the info until later or some of the info wasn't made public until mid summer):
View attachment 10035
Some positive news in Utah from sewer testing:
View attachment 10036
And vaccines are on their way! Although, the St. George area has really struggled to administer their vaccines. Compare them to Davis County. I'm not a health expert, I'm just a monkey that types stuff into spreadsheets, so I don't know why. Maybe being more rural has something to do with it?
View attachment 10037
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You and the experts were wrong. 400k (much less 480k) still hasn't been hit and it's January 12th. Also, it is likely when they release the deaths for all causes that we will see a drop in deaths for other categories such as heart attack, diabetes, etc (since they got labeld as covid deaths instead). That, and the total deaths or death rate will probably be lower.

Go (something) and all your other CNN, MSNBC idols that you worship.
 
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One Brow

One Brow

Well-Known Member
magic said:
You and the experts were wrong. 400k (much less 480k) still hasn't been hit and it's January 12th. Also, it is likely when they release the deaths for all causes that we will see a drop in deaths for other categories such as heart attack, diabetes, etc (since they got labeld as covid deaths instead). That, and the total deaths or death rate will probably be lower.
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You're seriously misinformed. We're at 376K, and to reach 400K by the end of the month is only 1.2K deaths per day, we are better than twice that rate right now.

All the indications are the the death rate in 2020 has increased, and 2020 deaths will be about 400K over the a projection of the death rate from 2019.
www.usatoday.com

More than 3 million people died in 2020 – the deadliest year in US history

This is the deadliest year in U.S. history, with deaths expected to top 3 million for the first time — due mainly to the coronavirus pandemic.
www.usatoday.com

magic said:
Go (something) and all your other CNN, MSNBC idols that you worship.
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That corporate, center-right clown? He'll appoint competent, corporate toadies, but he's no one to worship.
 
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magic

magic

Well-Known Member
One Brow said:
You're seriously misinformed. We're at 376K, and to reach 400K by the end of the month is only 1.2K deaths per day, we are better than twice that rate right now.

All the indications are the the death rate in 2020 has increased, and 2020 deaths will be about 400K over the a projection of the death rate from 2019.
www.usatoday.com

More than 3 million people died in 2020 – the deadliest year in US history

This is the deadliest year in U.S. history, with deaths expected to top 3 million for the first time — due mainly to the coronavirus pandemic.
www.usatoday.com



That corporate, center-right clown? He'll appoint competent, corporate toadies, but he's no one to worship.
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The facts are they projected 480k deaths by the end of Dec. 2020. We are past the date. You are wrong.
 
Red

Red

Well-Known Member
magic said:
The facts are they projected 480k deaths by the end of Dec. 2020. We are past the date. You are wrong.
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ourworldindata.org

Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)

On this page we provide an overview of excess mortality along with charts to explore the data. You can learn in more depth about different measures of excess mortality, their strengths and limitations, and their comparability across countries in our work with John Muellbauer and Janine Aron.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org

Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causesduring a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ‘normal’ conditions.1 In this case, we’re interested in how deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compare to the average number of deaths over the same period in previous years.

Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality captures COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported2 as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions.3

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
 
One Brow

One Brow

Well-Known Member
magic said:
The facts are they projected 480k deaths by the end of Dec. 2020. We are past the date. You are wrong.
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Projected by whom, and when? If you go back to April, you'll see a range of projections from 100-600K, because no one was sure. I haven't seen anything as large as 480K since June.

I do acknowledge that, while we were still learning about the virus, there were projections that were ridiculously high and ridiculously low.

I appreciate you acknowledging (through silence) your error on the death rate. Thanks.
 
Handlogten's Heros

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
LogGrad98 said:
What is your point? Just that OB was wrong about something? Just trying to figure out what's going on here.
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No one is rights... estimates are estimates. I think Gavin Newsome waaaaaayyyy overestimating the numbers is harmful in getting the compliance to some of the things he enforced... but he wasn’t any here near the ballpark. A hundred thousand one way or another is understandable. I also have no idea how accurate the numbers are... example we all got it and confirmed with positive tests. My brother in law’s family got it but only his wife took a test. I think there are a **** ton in unreported cases. I don’t know if deaths are under or over reported. Guessing they might be slightly over.

But here is the overall point imo... it’s bad. No matter what you believe about the numbers it’s real bad and we likely didn’t do a great job in managing it.
 
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