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There are going to be a million conspiracy theories (there already are) on the Rona and I will believe them all. I hope this is the strangest time of my life, but I have a feeling it likely gets far weirder.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
There are going to be a million conspiracy theories (there already are) on the Rona and I will believe them all. I hope this is the strangest time of my life, but I have a feeling it likely gets far weirder.
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Do you even qanon bro?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
 
infection said:
Also, if you'd reference back to what I posted on the 18th, it answers the question as to whether these were 'geologists or astronomers' and is from the British Medical Journal:

www.bmj.com

Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?

It seemed a truth universally acknowledged that the human population had no pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2, but is that actually the case? Peter Doshi explores the emerging research on immunological responses Even in local areas that have experienced some of the greatest rises in excess...
www.bmj.com www.bmj.com

That's not a study, but rather more of a review/editorial and just a primer for a lot of literature that's just been published regarding the issue. It's a good starting point if you're serious about the question.
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read it.

Where is the part that says we get herd immunity at 20% infection?
 
silesian said:
read it.

Where is the part that says we get herd immunity at 20% infection?
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Well, for one, I didn’t say it did. For two, if you’re looking for that discussion that you missed from the link, it’s found here:

While most experts have taken the R0 for SARS-CoV-2 (generally estimated to be between 2 and 3) and concluded that at least 50% of people need to be immune before herd immunity is reached, Gomes and colleagues calculate the threshold at 10% to 20%.
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And here:

When a population has people with pre-existing immunity, as the T cell studies may be indicating is the case, the herd immunity threshold based on an R0 of 2.5 can be reduced from 60% of a population getting infected right down to 10%, depending on the quantity and distribution of pre-existing immunity among people, Gupta’s group calculated.
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But, more importantly, it was the entire gist of the publication that spoke to the over simplification of how we conceptualize herd immunity. This conversation started when I said that it seems to be burning out at about 20-25% seroprevalence, to which you responded that you don’t get herd immunity at levels that low, then stated that epidemiologists have herd immunity at 60-70% (and joked that those saying lower must be geologists or astronomers), to which I then linked the publication above which elaborated on a whole of reasons as to why herd immunity may be much lower than 60-70% (which is essentially what we’re conflating with seroprevalence, which isn’t exactly the same thing). And it references multiple epidemiologists in that, among them Sunetra Gupta from Oxford, who’s one of the preeminent infectious disease epidemiologists in the world.

The line that sums it all up nicely is as follows:

The research offers a powerful reminder that very little in immunology is cut and dried.
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Which is consistent with what I was saying back in June:

infection said:
I think herd immunity as a concept is more simplistic in theory than it is in reality, and may function more as a theoretical model than anything else.
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The problem is, is that “herd immunity is 60-70%” is catchy. It prints well. It’s easy to remember. It’s able to take many very complicated concepts and try to distill it down to something digestible enough for print. More importantly, it also helps facilitate and perpetuate a certain level of doom. But it’s a concept. It’s not a written rule of the universe that’s beholden to contemporary scientific and societal understanding.
 
What’s the threshold for Herd Mentality? Especially since it just needs to be herd developed. That’s it. We just need the herd to develop it.
 
The Thriller said:
What’s the threshold for Herd Mentality? Especially since it just needs to be herd developed. That’s it. We just need the herd to develop it.
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I mean I can't stand Trump but are we really gonna make him sound like an idiot for a slip of the tongue with Biden participating in debates tonight? This is where I get worried about Joe... seems the less we hear from him the more confidence we have in him.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I mean I can't stand Trump but are we really gonna make him sound like an idiot for a slip of the tongue with Biden participating in debates tonight? This is where I get worried about Joe... seems the less we hear from him the more confidence we have in him.
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Tonight could decide the election.

Hope Biden is drinking his gatorade and eating his wheaties!
 
Gameface said:
Tonight could decide the election.

Hope Biden is drinking his gatorade and eating his wheaties!
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It could be ugly. It shouldn't matter this much but Biden having huge brain farts or getting steam rolled by Trump is likely the only way Trump can pull ahead.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I mean I can't stand Trump but are we really gonna make him sound like an idiot for a slip of the tongue with Biden participating in debates tonight? This is where I get worried about Joe... seems the less we hear from him the more confidence we have in him.
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Trump doesn’t just have gaffes, he says some of the dumbest things out there. If Biden said half the **** Trump does, Trump would be leading by a mile. The questions about Biden’s mental wellness is laughable when you just watch 5 mins of a Trump press conference and rally. It’s obvious which candidate most likely has mental and substance abuse problems. That’s why I post this stuff. Because it’s hilarious that Team Trump is trying to make mental health and substance abuse talking points.
 
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