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Ron Mexico

Well-Known Member
Contributor
An interesting article regarding Covid deaths in China.

"...based on excess mortality calculations, The Economist estimates that the true number of Covid deaths in China is not 4,636 – but something like 1.7 million.

That is, China’s cumulative death toll is likely at least double that of the United States."

This entire article is based on a model from economist that they dont post. The guy writes a bunch about this topic and his main argument is that it cant be right because its much lower than other places. He says China should be the same as Korea because he thinks they are similar. They are not.

The death numbers are probably off (its off most places including usa) but its definitely not 1.7 million. Its possible that the total numbers are close to 1 million across the entire outbreak, with the majority of those coming from the initial outbreak in Wuhan. Things were really bad in Wuhan, I just got back from there and talked to lots of locals about it. I think the case numbers are somewhat accurate based on what I see and social media. But I think they dont count deaths if there are other factors involved, which is the opposite of USA and most places. I think they also lost count/didnt keep count in the initial outbreak in Wuhan. The cases are really low here though regardless. No one knows anyone who has had the virus outside wuhan, its so rare. Over the last 3 years in China there is about 900,000 more deaths than there were for the 3 years before that. Most of that is likely covid, although I think suicides and other issues are through the roof due to extreme measures as well.

Things are way way way way more strict in China, to an extreme level. The strict handling of things are also supported by the people here due to the fear the government has given everyone here. I cant even walk around in public without people moving away from me and covering their mouth and their kids mouth if they dont have a mask on. Its a night and day difference with how things are in China vs USA in my personal experience. Cities are completely shut down if there are more than 50 cases or so. Even 1 case here in Beijing caused mass lockdowns of businesses and buildings. People were trapped at work, home, and shopping centers while they mass tested everyone multiple times within the the infected persons last 2 weeks itinerary. Its still 3 weeks strict quarantine entering the country. You have to do tests all the time here. Everywhere you go is traced. I have never suspected I have covid in China and haven been tested at least 50X in the last year. You cant move in China without having your temperature taken. Vaccines are not really an option, you get them here when the government tells you. Most people here dont really care or think about individual freedoms, they think about the greater good for the community.
 


Gameface

PICKS = FLEXIBILITY
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2020-21 Award Winner
This entire article is based on a model from economist that they dont post. The guy writes a bunch about this topic and his main argument is that it cant be right because its much lower than other places. He says China should be the same as Korea because he thinks they are similar. They are not.

The death numbers are probably off (its off most places including usa) but its definitely not 1.7 million. Its possible that the total numbers are close to 1 million across the entire outbreak, with the majority of those coming from the initial outbreak in Wuhan. Things were really bad in Wuhan, I just got back from there and talked to lots of locals about it. I think the case numbers are somewhat accurate based on what I see and social media. But I think they dont count deaths if there are other factors involved, which is the opposite of USA and most places. I think they also lost count/didnt keep count in the initial outbreak in Wuhan. The cases are really low here though regardless. No one knows anyone who has had the virus outside wuhan, its so rare. Over the last 3 years in China there is about 900,000 more deaths than there were for the 3 years before that. Most of that is likely covid, although I think suicides and other issues are through the roof due to extreme measures as well.

Things are way way way way more strict in China, to an extreme level. The strict handling of things are also supported by the people here due to the fear the government has given everyone here. I cant even walk around in public without people moving away from me and covering their mouth and their kids mouth if they dont have a mask on. Its a night and day difference with how things are in China vs USA in my personal experience. Cities are completely shut down if there are more than 50 cases or so. Even 1 case here in Beijing caused mass lockdowns of businesses and buildings. People were trapped at work, home, and shopping centers while they mass tested everyone multiple times within the the infected persons last 2 weeks itinerary. Its still 3 weeks strict quarantine entering the country. You have to do tests all the time here. Everywhere you go is traced. I have never suspected I have covid in China and haven been tested at least 50X in the last year. You cant move in China without having your temperature taken. Vaccines are not really an option, you get them here when the government tells you. Most people here dont really care or think about individual freedoms, they think about the greater good for the community.
I wonder what the next few years will look like for China and places like New Zealand after the pandemic phase is over. I don't actually know and I'm not making a guess.
 

Ron Mexico

Well-Known Member
Contributor
I wonder what the next few years will look like for China and places like New Zealand after the pandemic phase is over. I don't actually know and I'm not making a guess.
I dont think it will be good for China. They will have to open the borders at some point and deal with a major outbreak. It might be more mild, most people will be vaccinated, and treatments might be good at that point. But it will still have to happen. The problem is that China has reported the virus as being really scary and people are dead in the streets everywhere in other countries and how great they are at dealing with it. The average person here wont support opening the borders and having it sweep through, they like the strict measures. That might change when the rest of the world has moved on and they are still dealing with it and the economy taking a hit.

For me I think China took it way too extreme and USA took it wrong in other ways. I will say its been nice that when I get sick or someone around me is sick it doesnt even cross my mind it might be covid. I also like that things have been pretty much open for a long time here within China. Outside of these crazy short term lockdowns business has been normal for almost a year and a half. Travel within the country has been fine. The border thing really sucks for me and the long term prospect is a little scary though. Plus the idea that if I do get it in China I am basically in quarantine for 6 months or more, which is terrifying.

I dont know what will happen either. Personally I am way past the point of get vaccinated and boosted, show an ounce of intelligence about the virus and lets all move on. Well, besides the medical and science community. Variants and changes along with new treatments and better vaccines are still needed going forward.

I have a new job in Beijing I really like, but I am looking forward to moving to a new country in the next year or so. Sometimes I want to stay here long term, sometimes I want to be gone yesterday.
 

The Thriller

Well-Known Member
This doesn’t seem helpful.

It’s interesting that the same people who bitch about inflation and desiring to return to normal do everything they can to prolong this pandemic. It’s almost like keeping america sick with Covid benefits them politically and that’s why they’re doing it.

 
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Scat

Well-Known Member
Unlike in some parts in the world it is good to see that nice scientific attitude is in action in Hong Kong:
https://apnews.com/article/hong-kong-covid-hamsters-animals-75f2d3507bdb8255cd2aee79e962fc35
I have so many questions about this article.

1. "The pet shop employee tested positive for the delta variant on Monday, and several hamsters imported from the Netherlands at the store tested positive as well."
The Netherlands is sending weaponized hamsters to Hong Kong? Which leads me to...

2. "...several hamsters imported from the Netherlands..."
The Netherlands exports hamsters? Is there not a hamster breeder in all of Hong Kong? Sounds like a good business opportunity.

3. "Hong Kong authorities said Tuesday that they will kill about 2,000 small animals, including hamsters, after several tested positive for the coronavirus at a pet store where an employee was also infected."
Why would you test a hamster for covid in the first place? Are they testing all animals?

4. "Customers who purchased hamsters from the store after Jan. 7 will be traced and be subject to mandatory quarantine and must hand over their hamsters to authorities to be put down, officials said."
Pet stores in Hong Kong keep a registry of everyone that buys a hamster?

5. "Leung Siu-fai, director of the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department, said during a news conference that owners should keep hamsters at home, and not take them out."
People in Hong Kong take their hamsters out for a walk?

6. "They said all pet stores in Hong Kong must stop selling hamsters and that about 2,000 small mammals, including hamsters and chinchillas, will be killed in a humane manner."
Why would they not simply quarantine the animals instead of killing them? Did they test all of the hamsters to be killed or is this a case of hamster discrimination?

I don't find much about this situation scientific at all. It seems mostly about fear and irrationality.
 

lauriandres

Well-Known Member
I have so many questions about this article.

1. "The pet shop employee tested positive for the delta variant on Monday, and several hamsters imported from the Netherlands at the store tested positive as well."
The Netherlands is sending weaponized hamsters to Hong Kong? Which leads me to...

2. "...several hamsters imported from the Netherlands..."
The Netherlands exports hamsters? Is there not a hamster breeder in all of Hong Kong? Sounds like a good business opportunity.

3. "Hong Kong authorities said Tuesday that they will kill about 2,000 small animals, including hamsters, after several tested positive for the coronavirus at a pet store where an employee was also infected."
Why would you test a hamster for covid in the first place? Are they testing all animals?

4. "Customers who purchased hamsters from the store after Jan. 7 will be traced and be subject to mandatory quarantine and must hand over their hamsters to authorities to be put down, officials said."
Pet stores in Hong Kong keep a registry of everyone that buys a hamster?

5. "Leung Siu-fai, director of the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department, said during a news conference that owners should keep hamsters at home, and not take them out."
People in Hong Kong take their hamsters out for a walk?

6. "They said all pet stores in Hong Kong must stop selling hamsters and that about 2,000 small mammals, including hamsters and chinchillas, will be killed in a humane manner."
Why would they not simply quarantine the animals instead of killing them? Did they test all of the hamsters to be killed or is this a case of hamster discrimination?

I don't find much about this situation scientific at all. It seems mostly about fear and irrationality.
Here is some more information (use Google translate):
https://m.mingpao.com/ins/%E6%B8%AF%E8% ... 4%E5%87%BA

Our family also has a hamster as pet. Imported from Poland. When it told about this (that Hong Kong officials plan what they plan) to my daughter she almost started to cry.
My sarcastic point was that we have a fair share of people in every country, who state that "science and government officials should be almost blindly trusted". I am pretty sure that those who made that kind of decision in Hong Kong have some kind of university education/degree.
 

Archie Moses

Well-Known Member
I still feel pretty sick, but am doing a lot better. I'm taking hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and liposomal glutathione.

I'm certainly not a doctor, but I know my body. Hydroxychloroquine reduces my cough and sore throat 10 minutes after taking it and is effective for about 8 to 10 hours. I take two of those a day and it's been a game changer.

I was a little hesitant to take them at first, but tbh, I was so desperate/scared and in so much pain I would have tried almost anything.

The newest Covid symptom I've been having is sweating uncontrollable throughout my whole body. The last two nights I've woken up and my clothes and bed were soaked. It's so gross.
 

Archie Moses

Well-Known Member
Our health care delivery system is the worst of all industrialized nations. We have fine doctors and nurses. But the chokehold that the insurance and pharma industries have on people and this country is just disgusting. Hope you get better soon. When I had Covid (pre-vax) downing regular Mucinex (not the D one), nasal spray, and hot showers helped a lot.
Thank you, Thriller
 

LogGrad98

Well-Known Member
Contributor
2020-21 Award Winner
I still feel pretty sick, but am doing a lot better. I'm taking hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and liposomal glutathione.

I'm certainly not a doctor, but I know my body. Hydroxychloroquine reduces my cough and sore throat 10 minutes after taking it and is effective for about 8 to 10 hours. I take two of those a day and it's been a game changer.

I was a little hesitant to take them at first, but tbh, I was so desperate/scared and in so much pain I would have tried almost anything.

The newest Covid symptom I've been having is sweating uncontrollable throughout my whole body. The last two nights I've woken up and my clothes and bed were soaked. It's so gross.
I hope you start feeling better and come through this with no complications. Take care of yourself Archie.
 

One Brow

Well-Known Member
I'm certainly not a doctor, but I know my body. Hydroxychloroquine reduces my cough and sore throat 10 minutes after taking it and is effective for about 8 to 10 hours. I take two of those a day and it's been a game changer.
I'm glad you've found something where you feel better after you take it.
 


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