FalseFlagg K
Well-Known Member
you should start a chat thread here for the self quarantined
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Hekate
- Start date
you should start a chat thread here for the self quarantined
So with all the public health measures being taken, I have to revise my projections for the course of the CoViD-19 2020 event in the USA.
Of course, Iran is still going to be savaged by the outbreak, as well as North Kores, and while the subtropics and tropics have very little in the way of health care competency or materials for the flu/Coronavirus sort of thing, the heat helps, as does the sun. Europe is already "gone viral" and will have a serious event. Russia could stop it with public health measures like ours.
I compare CoViD-19 with H1N1 of 2009. T previous thought c20 would be worse, generating maybe 20,000 deaths in the USA. But all the public health measures will flatten the incidence curve, and make it possible to treat serious cases better, and will also mean not everyone will be exposed this year. It might mean more cases next year when the flu/congestion season revives though.
As it looks to me now, the less-serious track for younger folks, under 30 maybe even under 60, is likely due to some residual immunity in those populations from H1N1 and other Corona virus exposures, vaccinations, etc due to "crossover immunity" thanks to some shared common surface antigens between viral species. Therefore, I suggest that folks go out and get what vacinations are available in the genre. Small expense, possible large benefits.
If anyone in authority would listen to me regarding the installation of uv lights over heavy traffic areas or common-use areas like bathrooms, and implement other air-detoxifying resources like light ozone or chlorine or other oxidizing vapors, and install such things in care centers.... or if oldsters would install such measures at home, in their bathrooms, kitchens, bedrooms, it'd save lives as well.
As things look now, I am hopeful the c20 event will top out in June, and be over in August, with a wimpish reboot in November-December, totally only about 5000 US deaths, 90% over 60 years old.
Worldwide, maybe 100,000 in China, if you can believe anything they tell us. One of Xi's concentration camps could do that and more.....
It could be a million or more world-wide.
And I think Trump will be strutting his stuff come election time, and the DumpTrumpsters will not be talking about it at all.
I said it would be "well-managed". I have become aware of the planning that has gone on for over two decades for gov response to such a crisis. I said it wouldn't have mattered if Hillary were Pres, or Biden, or Rosa Parks for that matter. All Trump is doing is playing talking head for the bureaucrat experts following the damn plan. And those folks don't listen to me at all.
So the entire value of my pontifications in JFC would be in case anyone in here listened and applied any of the personal protection, space sanitizing ideas I've posted.....
Of course, Iran is still going to be savaged by the outbreak, as well as North Kores, and while the subtropics and tropics have very little in the way of health care competency or materials for the flu/Coronavirus sort of thing, the heat helps, as does the sun. Europe is already "gone viral" and will have a serious event. Russia could stop it with public health measures like ours.
I compare CoViD-19 with H1N1 of 2009. T previous thought c20 would be worse, generating maybe 20,000 deaths in the USA. But all the public health measures will flatten the incidence curve, and make it possible to treat serious cases better, and will also mean not everyone will be exposed this year. It might mean more cases next year when the flu/congestion season revives though.
As it looks to me now, the less-serious track for younger folks, under 30 maybe even under 60, is likely due to some residual immunity in those populations from H1N1 and other Corona virus exposures, vaccinations, etc due to "crossover immunity" thanks to some shared common surface antigens between viral species. Therefore, I suggest that folks go out and get what vacinations are available in the genre. Small expense, possible large benefits.
If anyone in authority would listen to me regarding the installation of uv lights over heavy traffic areas or common-use areas like bathrooms, and implement other air-detoxifying resources like light ozone or chlorine or other oxidizing vapors, and install such things in care centers.... or if oldsters would install such measures at home, in their bathrooms, kitchens, bedrooms, it'd save lives as well.
As things look now, I am hopeful the c20 event will top out in June, and be over in August, with a wimpish reboot in November-December, totally only about 5000 US deaths, 90% over 60 years old.
Worldwide, maybe 100,000 in China, if you can believe anything they tell us. One of Xi's concentration camps could do that and more.....
It could be a million or more world-wide.
And I think Trump will be strutting his stuff come election time, and the DumpTrumpsters will not be talking about it at all.
I said it would be "well-managed". I have become aware of the planning that has gone on for over two decades for gov response to such a crisis. I said it wouldn't have mattered if Hillary were Pres, or Biden, or Rosa Parks for that matter. All Trump is doing is playing talking head for the bureaucrat experts following the damn plan. And those folks don't listen to me at all.
So the entire value of my pontifications in JFC would be in case anyone in here listened and applied any of the personal protection, space sanitizing ideas I've posted.....
Sheer nonsense.
Trump's way involves a divergence of public disclosures and actual action. No doubt he was doing everything the experts wanted done or thought might help. He might have even figured to let the DumpTrumpster bots help out with their panic criticism, a sort of good cop/bad cop act, knowing public awareness is essential, but panic isn't, really, the way to do it. And why bother when some are volunteering all the Panic needed....
Pretty sure testing kits and sanitation resources are in his plans, just not up enough now due to the massive public responses for these resources. So, still rationing testing for the folks who need it most.
When the obvious sanitizer stuff is not on the shelves, I am still seeing big soap resources. Soap is as good as anything we have......or could wish for.....
Wash your hands, mop your floors, wash your walls, your bathroom and kitchen surfaces. Do laundry more frequently.
Miggs
Well-Known Member
https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-dependence-pharmaceutical-products-china
Read that. It makes me wonder if China unleashed this knowing it would hit us. Knowing they would immediately be extreme with their quarantines but that it would spread and reach us. Knowing that we are dependent on their kits. And that we are so dependent on their pharmaceuticals. And that we would be up ****’s creek without them. And that Trump wouldn’t know what the **** to do. All as a result of his tariffs.
Read that. It makes me wonder if China unleashed this knowing it would hit us. Knowing they would immediately be extreme with their quarantines but that it would spread and reach us. Knowing that we are dependent on their kits. And that we are so dependent on their pharmaceuticals. And that we would be up ****’s creek without them. And that Trump wouldn’t know what the **** to do. All as a result of his tariffs.
Miggs
Well-Known Member
Assuming you have kids in public schools so I’ll fill you in on what I’ve heard. Sounds like what I said back on Monday and that is that all public schools will be shut down in the next 24-48 hours.
Michigan, Ohio, Maryland, New Mexico and Kentucky already have shut down theirs.
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Red
Well-Known Member
CDC and epidemic experts conferred in Feb. to determine what could happen in the United States. 4 models were developed and discussed. The models developed by the CDC have not been released to the public: "The Times obtained screenshots of the C.D.C. presentation, which has not been released publicly, from someone not involved in the meetings. The Times then verified the data with several scientists who did participate......The assumptions in the C.D.C.’s four scenarios, and the new numerical projections, fall in the range of others developed by independent experts."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html
Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?
One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.
The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.
Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html
Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?
One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.
The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.
Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.
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Red
Well-Known Member
Further excerpts from the Times article. If I could find a non paywall version of this, I'd post it, but many may be able to read the piece anyway...
@JazzyFresh, if you wish to dispute any of this, you need to do so with the doctors involved in the projections described, not with me. I will not jump through hoops for you. So, when you have the balls to demand, to paraphrase you: "yes or no? Answer", don't hold your breath....
(When asked to predict how many cases the country will face, Fauci said that will depend largely on the government’s response.
“I can’t get you a realistic number until we put into the factor of how we respond,” he said. “If we are complacent and don’t do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up to many, many millions.”: https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/coron...worse-warns-white-house-expert-anthony-fauci/)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html
Even severe flu seasons stress the nation’s hospitals to the point of setting up tents in parking lots and keeping people for days in emergency rooms. Coronavirus is likely to cause five to 10 times that burden of disease, said Dr. James Lawler, an infectious diseases specialist and public health expert at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. Hospitals “need to start working now,” he said, “to get prepared to take care of a heck of a lot of people.
Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the U.S. would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.
Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.....
.......The most lethal pandemic to hit the United States was the 1918 Spanish flu, which was responsible for about 675,000 American deaths, according to estimates cited by the C.D.C.
The Institute for Disease Modeling calculated that the new coronavirus is roughly equally transmissible as the 1918 flu, and just slightly less clinically severe, and it is higher in both transmissibility and severity compared with all other flu viruses in the past century.
@JazzyFresh, if you wish to dispute any of this, you need to do so with the doctors involved in the projections described, not with me. I will not jump through hoops for you. So, when you have the balls to demand, to paraphrase you: "yes or no? Answer", don't hold your breath....
(When asked to predict how many cases the country will face, Fauci said that will depend largely on the government’s response.
“I can’t get you a realistic number until we put into the factor of how we respond,” he said. “If we are complacent and don’t do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up to many, many millions.”: https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/coron...worse-warns-white-house-expert-anthony-fauci/)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html
Even severe flu seasons stress the nation’s hospitals to the point of setting up tents in parking lots and keeping people for days in emergency rooms. Coronavirus is likely to cause five to 10 times that burden of disease, said Dr. James Lawler, an infectious diseases specialist and public health expert at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. Hospitals “need to start working now,” he said, “to get prepared to take care of a heck of a lot of people.
Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the U.S. would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.
Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.....
.......The most lethal pandemic to hit the United States was the 1918 Spanish flu, which was responsible for about 675,000 American deaths, according to estimates cited by the C.D.C.
The Institute for Disease Modeling calculated that the new coronavirus is roughly equally transmissible as the 1918 flu, and just slightly less clinically severe, and it is higher in both transmissibility and severity compared with all other flu viruses in the past century.
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D
Deleted member 365
Guest
D
Deleted member 365
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It’s always somebody else’s fault
facts
facts
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D
Deleted member 365
Guest
Again, our actual cases are much higher. During yesterday’s presser with Gov Herbert, they talked about how we haven’t had community spread. Yet, how do we actually know that when the only people being tested are jazz players?
D
Deleted member 365
Guest
Yep
Hubei Provence in China handled things as poorly as possible for well over a month. Projections that make it worse than that for other countries in their models seem pretty silly and alarmist to me. They did eventually go to get big lengths at the epicenter in wuhan but that was well after handling things poorly. Plus if you factor in the standard of living for people there and their habits and genetics they have a much higher chance of spreading this. Also when you factor in that the majority of men are heavy smokers you can easily see why more people would die from it there.