Coronavirus

[Zombie]

The facts/stats are not sustaining the 3x or the 5d figure you're using in your thought experiment. It's a good idea to go over this, and then lay in factors about changes in behavior/movement that we are taking now, and you can calculate stuff like costs and improved results in the exercise, and get ROI figures used in business decisions.

If we mandatorily isolate known cases---quarantine them---as soon as they are diagnosed, and if we generally pull back from spreading behaviors.... travel, workplaces, public events, recreation crowds, we significantly alter the results.

If we get more testing done, and identify more of the unknowing/unknowable carriers, and quarantine them, we can really manage this outbreak/pandemic.... and we are ramping up and doing more of that.

your math is good, though. doubling 10x in 30 d gets you from 1 to 1000. Doing that a second 30d gets you from 1000 to 1000000.

You're right of course that the measures implented (if followed) will extend the time it takes to double the number of cases. Unfortunately due to the long incubation period, time it takes for symptoms to progress to the point of going to the doctor and finally getting tested there's a 10-14 day lag time before the numbers will start to slow down.

That we're so far behind in testing also means that contact tracing and quarantining isn't happening on the scale it needs to to stop this is in its tracks any time soon.

Anyway, my post was meant more to illustrate why JazzyFresh's "we'd have to have 800k cases tomorrow for this to infect tens of millions of people" post was stupid and wrong.

 

[JazzyFresh]

I just did *******. You're going on about X number of cases per day growing on a linear scale. That's not what's happening.

No you didn't.

Give me numbers not insults.

I've broken down that the average number of sicknesses per country is around .05%. In case you don't understand that is 5% of tryinga single percentage. You're trying to tell me that just because im American I have a 2000+% more chance of getting sick. Just because I'm American.

 

[Zombie]

Remember we're talking about 75,000,000 people. Other countries are getting sick at a similar rate and they have yet to hit even a half on one percent of their population. You are trying to tell me that just because America is located away fromany countries that we will get sick at 50%.

Italy is at .08% getting sick
Zombie is saying America will be at 50+% because for some unknown reason the virus is Americist.

Lol

I'm saying you don't understand how numbers work.

 

[JazzyFresh]

I'm saying you don't understand how numbers work.

Then show me. Map me out 75,000,000 sicknesses.

 

[babe]

I just did *******. You're going on about X number of cases per day growing on a linear scale. That's not what's happening.

How about X number of cases become 1.5X number of cases every 5d/

Worldometer reports.... world-wide...

Mar 1...….80k

Mar 6.....120k

Mar 11.....180 k

Mar 16.....270k

Mar 21....405k

With exponential discussions, the value of the exponent is the whole case. 1.5 is a lot less than 2, and an event time of 5d means it's a lot less than 3d.

 

[babe]

You're right of course that the measures implented (if followed) will extend the time it takes to double the number of cases. Unfortunately due to the long incubation period, time it takes for symptoms to progress to the point of going to the doctor and finally getting tested there's a 10-14 day lag time before the numbers will start to slow down.

That we're so far behind in testing also means that contact tracing and quarantining isn't happening on the scale it needs to to stop this is in its tracks any time soon.

Anyway, my post was meant more to illustrate why JazzyFresh's "we'd have to have 800k cases tomorrow for this to infect tens of millions of people" post was stupid and wrong.

I think this is a reasonable response with measured, not panicked, concerns.

I've been going over the worldometer figures which I referred to above. Looking at different cases, different countries, is instructive. China did a total lockdown on affected areas, posting army units on the streets and a total stay-home order, and look at it now. They have reached 81k total cases to date. But as a total country, only 56/M people incidence, and it's virtually stopped dead now. I think only six deaths yesterday.

Only 41 new cases reported yesterday in China.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[Zombie]

How about X number of cases become 1.5X number of cases every 5d/

Worldometer reports.... world-wide...

Mar 1...….80k

Mar 6.....120k

Mar 11.....180 k

Mar 16.....270k

Mar 21....405k

With exponential discussions, the value of the exponent is the whole case. 1.5 is a lot less than 2, and an event time of 5d means it's a lot less than 3d.

So a billion cases worldwide by the end of June if not slowed.

 

[Zombie]

It looks too serious to ignore from the leaked photos.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...rce-of-the-new-coronavirus-outbreak-in-china/

Are you ok @Ron Mexico ?

Its wild to me that this was on JazzFanz(!) radar on January 26th and yet our government didn't take it seriously until like a week ago.

 

[JazzyFresh]

You're right of course that the measures implented (if followed) will extend the time it takes to double the number of cases. Unfortunately due to the long incubation period, time it takes for symptoms to progress to the point of going to the doctor and finally getting tested there's a 10-14 day lag time before the numbers will start to slow down.

That we're so far behind in testing also means that contact tracing and quarantining isn't happening on the scale it needs to to stop this is in its tracks any time soon.

Anyway, my post was meant more to illustrate why JazzyFresh's "we'd have to have 800k cases tomorrow for this to infect tens of millions of people" post was stupid and wrong.

Oh and 800k was a median that had to happen to hit those numbers. Its meant to show what a huge number 75,000,000 is not to make any projection. My bad I figured that was common sense.

 

[babe]

So a billion cases worldwide by the end of June if not slowed.

Going back and looking at stats country by country, there are a few countries where it has maxed out and practically ended, China being the chief one. For a fairly large number of countries with significant presence of the virus, the daily increase in case numbers is 20%. 15-25%. This daily increase would line up more with the 3d doubling you were talking about, and you are right about the lag time before we will see it drop because of public health measures/ behavior changes/ quarantine and travel reductions. We are not seeing much of that slowdown yet. But we can expect it will come, beginning about now. This flattening of the curve will be the result of less effective transmission from infectives to other people, and further flattening because of sanitary measures people are generally applying now more than previously.

 

[babe]

Its wild to me that this was on JazzFanz(!) radar on January 26th and yet our government didn't take it seriously until like a week ago.

Trump restricted travel from China at that time, amid protests and charges of racism from our Press....

 

[Gameface]

Trump restricted travel from China at that time, amid protests and charges of racism from our Press....

links?

and no Brietbart saying that other news agencies were doing that is not a valid link.