Draft reform vote coming up

[GVC]

If I didn't make any mistakes, here are the probabilities under the proposed system (assuming Zach Lowe's info is correct):

[TABLE="width: 659, align: left"]
[TR]
[TD]Pick\Standing [/TD]
[TD]30(1)[/TD]
[TD]29(2)[/TD]
[TD]28(3)[/TD]
[TD]27(4)[/TD]
[TD]26(5)[/TD]
[TD]25(6)[/TD]
[TD]24(7)[/TD]
[TD]23(8)[/TD]
[TD]22(9)[/TD]
[TD]21(10)[/TD]
[TD]20(11)[/TD]
[TD]19(12)[/TD]
[TD]18(13)[/TD]
[TD]17(14)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0.12[/TD]
[TD]0.12[/TD]
[TD]0.12[/TD]
[TD]0.12[/TD]
[TD]0.115[/TD]
[TD]0.1[/TD]
[TD]0.085[/TD]
[TD]0.07[/TD]
[TD]0.055[/TD]
[TD]0.04[/TD]
[TD]0.025[/TD]
[TD]0.015[/TD]
[TD]0.01[/TD]
[TD]0.005[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0.1169[/TD]
[TD]0.1169[/TD]
[TD]0.1169[/TD]
[TD]0.1169[/TD]
[TD]0.1128[/TD]
[TD]0.0999[/TD]
[TD]0.0865[/TD]
[TD]0.0725[/TD]
[TD]0.0579[/TD]
[TD]0.0428[/TD]
[TD]0.0271[/TD]
[TD]0.0164[/TD]
[TD]0.011[/TD]
[TD]0.0055[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0.1133[/TD]
[TD]0.1133[/TD]
[TD]0.1133[/TD]
[TD]0.1133[/TD]
[TD]0.1101[/TD]
[TD]0.0997[/TD]
[TD]0.0881[/TD]
[TD]0.0752[/TD]
[TD]0.0612[/TD]
[TD]0.046[/TD]
[TD]0.0297[/TD]
[TD]0.0182[/TD]
[TD]0.0122[/TD]
[TD]0.0062[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]0.1092[/TD]
[TD]0.1092[/TD]
[TD]0.1092[/TD]
[TD]0.1092[/TD]
[TD]0.1069[/TD]
[TD]0.0992[/TD]
[TD]0.0897[/TD]
[TD]0.0784[/TD]
[TD]0.0652[/TD]
[TD]0.05[/TD]
[TD]0.0328[/TD]
[TD]0.0203[/TD]
[TD]0.0138[/TD]
[TD]0.007[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]0.1042[/TD]
[TD]0.1042[/TD]
[TD]0.1042[/TD]
[TD]0.1042[/TD]
[TD]0.103[/TD]
[TD]0.0983[/TD]
[TD]0.0914[/TD]
[TD]0.082[/TD]
[TD]0.0699[/TD]
[TD]0.0549[/TD]
[TD]0.0368[/TD]
[TD]0.0231[/TD]
[TD]0.0158[/TD]
[TD]0.0081[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0.0981[/TD]
[TD]0.0981[/TD]
[TD]0.0981[/TD]
[TD]0.0981[/TD]
[TD]0.0981[/TD]
[TD]0.0968[/TD]
[TD]0.093[/TD]
[TD]0.0861[/TD]
[TD]0.0757[/TD]
[TD]0.0611[/TD]
[TD]0.0421[/TD]
[TD]0.0268[/TD]
[TD]0.0184[/TD]
[TD]0.0095[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0.3383[/TD]
[TD]0.2436[/TD]
[TD]0.1696[/TD]
[TD]0.1131[/TD]
[TD]0.0737[/TD]
[TD]0.0445[/TD]
[TD]0.0172[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0948[/TD]
[TD]0.1479[/TD]
[TD]0.1695[/TD]
[TD]0.1759[/TD]
[TD]0.178[/TD]
[TD]0.15[/TD]
[TD]0.0838[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0208[/TD]
[TD]0.0524[/TD]
[TD]0.0915[/TD]
[TD]0.1473[/TD]
[TD]0.2113[/TD]
[TD]0.2578[/TD]
[TD]0.219[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0033[/TD]
[TD]0.0126[/TD]
[TD]0.034[/TD]
[TD]0.0787[/TD]
[TD]0.1634[/TD]
[TD]0.2988[/TD]
[TD]0.4092[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0004[/TD]
[TD]0.0022[/TD]
[TD]0.0087[/TD]
[TD]0.0292[/TD]
[TD]0.0897[/TD]
[TD]0.2584[/TD]
[TD]0.6114[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0003[/TD]
[TD]0.0015[/TD]
[TD]0.0076[/TD]
[TD]0.0363[/TD]
[TD]0.1834[/TD]
[TD]0.7708[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0002[/TD]
[TD]0.0013[/TD]
[TD]0.0115[/TD]
[TD]0.107[/TD]
[TD]0.88[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0001[/TD]
[TD]0.0023[/TD]
[TD]0.0388[/TD]
[TD]0.9588[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]






















Here are the probabilities under the current (old) system:

[TABLE="width: 822"]
[TR]
[TD]Pick\Standing[/TD]
[TD]30(1)[/TD]
[TD]29(2)[/TD]
[TD]28(3)[/TD]
[TD]27(4)[/TD]
[TD]26(5)[/TD]
[TD]25(6)[/TD]
[TD]24(7)[/TD]
[TD]23(8)[/TD]
[TD]22(9)[/TD]
[TD]21(10)[/TD]
[TD]20(11)[/TD]
[TD]19(12)[/TD]
[TD]18(13)[/TD]
[TD]17(14)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0.25[/TD]
[TD]0.199[/TD]
[TD]0.156[/TD]
[TD]0.119[/TD]
[TD]0.088[/TD]
[TD]0.063[/TD]
[TD]0.043[/TD]
[TD]0.028[/TD]
[TD]0.017[/TD]
[TD]0.011[/TD]
[TD]0.008[/TD]
[TD]0.007[/TD]
[TD]0.006[/TD]
[TD]0.005[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0.2151[/TD]
[TD]0.1881[/TD]
[TD]0.1574[/TD]
[TD]0.126[/TD]
[TD]0.0966[/TD]
[TD]0.071[/TD]
[TD]0.0494[/TD]
[TD]0.0326[/TD]
[TD]0.02[/TD]
[TD]0.013[/TD]
[TD]0.0095[/TD]
[TD]0.0083[/TD]
[TD]0.0071[/TD]
[TD]0.0059[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0.1777[/TD]
[TD]0.1712[/TD]
[TD]0.1559[/TD]
[TD]0.133[/TD]
[TD]0.1068[/TD]
[TD]0.0812[/TD]
[TD]0.0579[/TD]
[TD]0.0389[/TD]
[TD]0.0241[/TD]
[TD]0.0158[/TD]
[TD]0.0115[/TD]
[TD]0.0101[/TD]
[TD]0.0087[/TD]
[TD]0.0073[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]0.3572[/TD]
[TD]0.3186[/TD]
[TD]0.2257[/TD]
[TD]0.0985[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.1231[/TD]
[TD]0.2648[/TD]
[TD]0.3507[/TD]
[TD]0.2615[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0403[/TD]
[TD]0.1603[/TD]
[TD]0.3599[/TD]
[TD]0.4395[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0125[/TD]
[TD]0.0836[/TD]
[TD]0.3047[/TD]
[TD]0.5993[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0037[/TD]
[TD]0.0397[/TD]
[TD]0.2322[/TD]
[TD]0.7244[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.001[/TD]
[TD]0.0179[/TD]
[TD]0.1679[/TD]
[TD]0.8131[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0003[/TD]
[TD]0.0081[/TD]
[TD]0.122[/TD]
[TD]0.8697[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0001[/TD]
[TD]0.0038[/TD]
[TD]0.0888[/TD]
[TD]0.9074[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0018[/TD]
[TD]0.0628[/TD]
[TD]0.9353[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0008[/TD]
[TD]0.039[/TD]
[TD]0.9602[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0002[/TD]
[TD]0.018[/TD]
[TD]0.9818[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Note: Entries labeled 0* represent positive probabilities, rounded to .0000.

 

[vegas]

Re 15 min: it works if there is action, but for picks that stay, 15 min is a lot of time for some announcer to fill while waiting for a trade. If they could give some incentive to teams to decline the 15 min, so that unless a trade was likely, they wouldn't waste the time. Only trouble is you don't send a vote of confidence to your new draft pick if a trade doesn't work out.

 

[One Brow]

Plus, it's still really really hard to believe that it's entirely clean, especially after the Cavs' recent run. 0.0074256% chance of getting the first picks three years in a row and it just happens.

Wildly improbable things happen every day.

 

[ema]

As for the infinitesimal chance you listed, virtually any combination of three outcomes would have been extremely unlikely as well. In other words, had a completely different scenario played out you could have made this exact same argument saying that the chances of the last three or four drafts turning out the way they did was nearly impossible. It is technically true, but it is a fallacious way to use statistics because the fact is that some infinitesimally tiny outcome had to occur.

Wildly improbable things happen every day.

Guys, I know, it can happen. But, it IS hard to believe. Like it's hard to believe that you could win the lottery.

 

[One Brow]

Guys, I know, it can happen. But, it IS hard to believe. Like it's hard to believe that you could win the lottery.

It's much harder to believe that several team owners are conspiring against their own chances of winning the lottery.

 

[ema]

It's much harder to believe that several team owners are conspiring against their own chances of winning the lottery.

What do you mean?

 

[One Brow]

What do you mean?

The teams own the league. Adam Silver, and David Stern before him, work for the team owners as a group, as does everyone else in the league office. To say there was a conspiracy by Stern/Silver/etc. is to bacially say the league owners are conducting it.

 

[Revolution 9]

thankfully the cavs wont be winning it anytime soon

 

[Ben10]

No they might be winning something else though


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jazz4ever]

Thanks for doing the math GVC. I hope everyone does realize the downside of this, which is you can slide very far down. If the Jazz finish 5th worst next year, under the new system could easily slide to the 10th or 11th pick. It means scouting resources are stretched thin, and you just can't plan or even get excited much about anything until lottery day.

 

[da ThRONe]

Thanks for doing the math GVC. I hope everyone does realize the downside of this, which is you can slide very far down. If the Jazz finish 5th worst next year, under the new system could easily slide to the 10th or 11th pick. It means scouting resources are stretched thin, and you just can't plan or even get excited much about anything until lottery day.

And it still won't get rid of tanking. It will just hurt teams that are legitimately bad the same as it does the ones that are intentional bad.

 

[Jazz4ever]

And it still won't get rid of tanking. It will just hurt teams that are legitimately bad the same as it does the ones that are intentional bad.

What is your argument it won't get rid of tanking? If I am in danger of sliding 7 spots why would I risk alienating a fan base? Most draft years are not like 2014, there is usually only one player with superstar potential (if that).