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Abi naber ya
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If Hay got foul calls like say Lebron, he would get 20 ft per game. He has more no-calls than anyone I have ever noticed.
If we remain patient and allow the baby steps/growing process to take it's course, in about 5 or 6 years from now, Hayward will finally become the leader and all-star we've long been craving for. It's like riding a bike, you wouldn't dare take off the training wheels for a child until they were AT LEAST 17-18 years old right? Just be patient.You start by saying Hayward is making big strides, but then by saying baby steps...lol
The larger number of variables exist because those variables are necessary in order to CALCULATE the number of possessions, as opposed to simply estimating them like NBA.com does.
To be clear, I'm not claiming that basketball-reference is perfect; just that it's far more accurate than NBA.com. In fact, I can prove it.
Let's look at Game 1 of the 2013 NBA Finals, as this is one of the best examples that had me dig into the differences between formulas in the first place:
According to basketball-reference:
SAS ortg 108.2
MIA ortg 103.5
SAS +4.7 efficiency differential
According to NBA.com:
SAS 102.3 ortg
MIA 102.9 ortg
SAS -0.6 efficiency differential.
The Spurs won by 4 points, and yet NBA.com gave the Spurs a lower offensive rating than the Heat in that game.
The main reason why NBA.com's numbers are way off (according to them, the Spurs lost Game 1!) is because they calculate offensive and defensive ratings from team pace rather than from game pace. Basketball-reference calculates team A's and team B's possessions, adds them and divides by 2, and that gives us game pace and then based on THAT calculates ortg/drtg.
It's a very good method, and from this and several other examples, I've found the error margin is very small if we compare estimated results to real (calculated manually from play-by-play).
This is absolutely true. He gets a very high number of no-calls.
As I stated, but you cut out, our drop in Assist % is much more telling to me. Our players have developed another year, Burks has been back, Burke has had a huge step up, so saying we are more efficient this year and saying our offensive system has improved is crazy.
Look at the teams with the top assist % from year to year. The top teams are generally the best in the league. The bottom teams suck. We need more balance and our system isn't giving it to us. Our system was so much better in 03 that a much less talented team played much better, and it was fun to watch. This **** is boring to watch, even when we win. Does anyone really like our system? If so, please tell me why.
I like Quin because I think he gives our players more confidence and helps them develop. This is a huge plus. But I hate his system. I think Sloan didn't adapt to the importance of the 3 enough, but other than that he had a great system, but I do think his rigidness did cause some of our players to lose confidence.
1. Not really.It has been a LONG time since I took Advanced Linear Statistics, but it is clear to me that Basketball Reference's calculation method is prone to high variance and multicollinearity, due to the relatively large number of predictor variables.
1. Not really.
2. There's really no need to estimate possessions; they can be taken directly from the play-by-play data. To date, I've scraped the NBA play-by-play data from the 2013/14 and 2014/15 seasons. I've broken the data down into segments between substitutions and the start/end of quarters, and have almost finished getting lineups in these segments -- there are some quarters/periods in which teams have players who play from start to finish without showing up in the box score, which makes doing so a bit more difficult. Fortunately, I only have 25 instances of a player missing from a lineup over those two seasons -- roughly 20000 team periods -- and no team has two periods in a single game missing a player. As such, I can sum minutes over my play-by-play lineups (since I've also calculated the length of the segments) and compare to the box score minutes. The player off by 5 or 12 minutes (in 24 of the 25 instances, the missing player occurs in an overtime period) must be the missing player. I'm busy finishing up some other work, but I should have all NBA lineups for the last 19 seasons (NBA play-by-play data goes back to the 1996/97 season) by the end of this coming weekend. I digress...Next step is getting possessions from the play-by-play data so that I can measure player/lineup efficacy in different ways. Accurate offensive/defensive efficiency should be done in fairly short order.
I want to get a bit further before sharing what's needed to replicate what I'm doing. I may share some of the **** I find though.Wow, I thought I liked to dig into data. I hope you will share.