Its Time to Tank

[Eddie Zero]

Im reading tea leaves that some Mike trade is on the board that we like. Few interviews within past few days Mike sounded like he expects something going down. FO has probably asked him if he is cool with the destination.

Vando and Beasley I could almost guarantee being out.

I sense its a package where we bring in a guy that has not been mentioned much. Just something about the quotes Ryan and Danny made in that McMahon piece..

Ok what about something along the lines of CP3 to LAC, Mike & Vander to PHO, players from LAC and picks from PHO to UTA ? I dont see any straight up deal with Clippers for Mike, doing much for us,since none of their roster making any salary that will match, fit the Jazz timeline at all. That and their picks are not going to be any good either.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Im reading tea leaves that some Mike trade is on the board that we like. Few interviews within past few days Mike sounded like he expects something going down. FO has probably asked him if he is cool with the destination.

Vando and Beasley I could almost guarantee being out.

I sense its a package where we bring in a guy that has not been mentioned much. Just something about the quotes Ryan and Danny made in that McMahon piece..

Which is you are Jazz fans, Danny and Ryan this season could not have gone better. 50+ games of competitive basketball… you get a damn all star and one young stud and another promising young player… you collect picks for the “leftovers” you get a pick in the 7-9 range or get hella lucky and land top 4… with only 29 or so games of tankball

 

[sip]

I was suggesting, I don't think any trade he makes,for the most part, is going to make us bad enough, to be in tank mode.
I think he will intentionally not trade for a different vet on a longer contract, just for a pick. Not when the vets he has under contract, are not on long term deals, and give him more flex.
But I can understand the logic in trading them for younger win later projects, that also fuel the semi season tank or something along that road. Not sure he would though, and would want players that fit winning culture here not tanking culture.

You are seriously overestimating what tank mode means this year. This year is very different than years past where we would have to fall off hard to get into that 6-8 range. With so many teams having no incentive to tank because they either don't have their own pick or having older stars that are still in their prime it is easy this year to drop into that bottom tier without a massive tear down. I wouldn't be surprised if going 10-17 the rest of the way could get us in that 6-8 range for the draft.

 

[Eddie Zero]

You are seriously overestimating what tank mode means this year. This year is very different than years past where you have to fall off hard to get into that 6-8 range. With so many teams having no incentive to tank because they either don't have their own pick or having older stars that are still in their prime it is easy this year top drop into that bottom tier without a massive tear down.

if we go into tank mode I am fine with it. I just don't believe it goes that way.
Not only because far lesser rosters are out there, regardless of the parity, some have with no hope at all ,and locks to start tanking. Even if we trade half the starters, which is highly unlikely this late before the deadline, the remaining starters and rotation players all suddenly playing poorly or all getting hurt is what it would take to get into stank beer zones

 

[Korisfani]

After a trade sitting out Lauri one game and JC another will lead to two losses. So maybe its only 2-3 games for each guy but those games are almost guaranteed to be losses.

What? No it doesn't. Sitting one player doesn't cost you more than 0.1-0.15 wins. So no, it's not "almost guaranteed". Sitting Lauri for 3 games and JC for another 3 doesn't get you even one extra loss on probability.

Or if you really believe this, I'm sure a billionaire, because you've fleeced Vegas for years

Can you quote a post of someone saying that any player should sit out the rest of the season?

These just from today. Whether it's 10-12-14 games, that's not "rest on b2bs". That's forcing someone to sit with invented injuries, doesn't really matter if it's 14 or 24 games, does it?

This is awesome news. Give Lauri a month off

Find some injuries for Lauri and Mike to make sure they miss at least 10-12 games each and we are in the lottery.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What? No it doesn't. Sitting one player doesn't cost you more than 0.1-0.15 wins. So no, it's not "almost guaranteed". Sitting Lauri for 3 games and JC for another 3 doesn't get you even one extra loss on probability.

Or if you really believe this, I'm sure a billionaire, because you've fleeced Vegas for years


These just from today. Whether it's 10-12-14 games, that's not "rest on b2bs". That's forcing someone to sit with invented injuries, doesn't really matter if it's 14 or 24 games, does it?

I get the math spread out over an 82 game sample... but in a single game event there is no such thing as .1 or .15 wins. We have a game that we are favored by 2 points to win when we are fully healthy... then the news comes out Lauri is sitting... we very well could go to -2. Its not a guarantee but removing some of our depth and playing young players will take us from a .500 team to a sub .500 team. Sitting JC or Lauri 2-3 games each they would not normally sit... very well might add 2-3 losses. Which if you look at the standings is a huge difference. Maybe all those 50/50 type games don't swing towards losses... but in a 29 game sample you could have 2-3 games go the other way pretty easily.

Guarantee is strong.. but if we trade Mike, Beasley, Vando and get lesser players or no players back (like waiving Russ)... a little injury management and we could go 10-19 pretty easily.

 

[HermanG]

Ok what about something along the lines of CP3 to LAC, Mike & Vander to PHO, players from LAC and picks from PHO to UTA ? I dont see any straight up deal with Clippers for Mike, doing much for us,since none of their roster making any salary that will match, fit the Jazz timeline at all. That and their picks are not going to be any good either.

I dont think its Clippers. Its just a gut feeling.. but Pels are a team I think will make a surprise move.

 

[fishonjazz]

This is my main concern. I see a path where we trade just Beasley and Vando and still end up in a good place.

I know Ive been insufferable with my posts lately but I just genuinely worry the path FO takes kills the joy of discussing here...

If we trade everyone.. I promise I wont flame one bit. If we trade no one, I will scratch my head a bit for sure but thats not gonna happen.

I would be pretty pissed of we just trade beasley and vando. For me to be happy we need to trade at least one of conley or KO and never play Gay agains after the deadline.

I like conley but probably want him traded most of all just because i want to see what we have with sexton and NAW and THT. Need to clear that logjam.


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[fishonjazz]

What? No it doesn't. Sitting one player doesn't cost you more than 0.1-0.15 wins. So no, it's not "almost guaranteed". Sitting Lauri for 3 games and JC for another 3 doesn't get you even one extra loss on probability.

Or if you really believe this, I'm sure a billionaire, because you've fleeced Vegas for years


These just from today. Whether it's 10-12-14 games, that's not "rest on b2bs". That's forcing someone to sit with invented injuries, doesn't really matter if it's 14 or 24 games, does it?

I will continue to wait for you to quote someone saying any of our players should miss the rest of the year.


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[HermanG]

I would be pretty pissed of we just trade beasley and vando. For me to be happy we need to trade at least one of conley or KO and never play Gay agains after the deadline.

I like conley but probably want him traded most of all just because i want to see what we have with sexton and NAW and THT. Need to clear that logjam.


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Yeah I dont like that logjam either. Hardy cannot expect to evaluate guys solely based on practice reps either. Also you never know.. taking away the safety net from Sexton might elevate him in unexpected ways.

 

[sip]

I would be pretty pissed of we just trade beasley and vando. For me to be happy we need to trade at least one of conley or KO and never play Gay agains after the deadline.

I like conley but probably want him traded most of all just because i want to see what we have with sexton and NAW and THT. Need to clear that logjam.


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Yeah it would be such a jazz move to trade 2 younger guys that could possibly have a future here instead of Conley, Olynyk and Clarkson. I'm not opposed to trading Beasley and Vando but I sure as hell want a couple of those vets traded as well. I'm probably the biggest NAW fan on this board but if he isn't going to play then we might as well trade. I think a deal that makes a lot of sense is NAW for Darius Bazley. We get a look at a long athletic sf/pf that has fallen out of the rotation with the thunder and they get a look at a solid utility wing that also happens to be Shai's cousin.

 

[homeytennis]

I want Hardy to give us good looks at Ochai, Bolmaro, THT, NAW, Dok, Juzang and Potter when he's rehabbed. It's not tanking, it's player evaluation.