Its Time to Tank

[LogGrad98]

Lauri is in a 2-game mini-slump. Maybe he takes a few games to get past it or he is strategically "rested" ala Kawhi "I'd Rather be in Cancun" Leonard. And we go into a double-digit losing streak. Solidify that draft positions a bit before all-star break.

 

[HermanG]

Lauri is in a 2-game mini-slump. Maybe he takes a few games to get past it or he is strategically "rested" ala Kawhi "I'd Rather be in Cancun" Leonard. And we go into a double-digit losing streak. Solidify that draft positions a bit before all-star break.

Not next game though. Its Minny with rest advantage (they play Nuggets on the road today and us tomorrow)

 

[LogGrad98]

Not next game though. Its Minny with rest advantage (they play Nuggets on the road today and us tomorrow)

At this point odds are our pick will be better than Minny's pick anyway, so we might as well help our own tank, because winning that game doesn't do much to drop them further in the standings and it hurts our own tank.

 

[HermanG]

At this point odds are our pick will be better than Minny's pick anyway, so we might as well help our own tank, because winning that game doesn't do much to drop them further in the standings and it hurts our own tank.

Well we will likely lose because of the distractions and likely trades happening that day.. but in the long run Minny demise serves us so much better.

Its improving 1 pick this year vs helping a team implode whose future we control.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Well we will likely lose because of the distractions and likely trades happening that day.. but in the long run Minny demise serves us so much better.

Its improving 1 pick this year vs helping a team implode whose future we control.

Its a no lose situation but also I prefer to beat them. We only control their destiny directly a few times and this is one we could easily win. Wonder if they punt the Denver game the night before.

 

[hgb]

Its a no lose situation but also I prefer to beat them. We only control their destiny directly a few times and this is one we could easily win. Wonder if they punt the Denver game the night before.

And it's not just about record, we want to make sure they miss the playoffs. That would probably mean 3-4 spots better pick, plus a chance to win big.

 

[HermanG]

And it's not just about record, we want to make sure they miss the playoffs. That would probably mean 3-4 spots better pick, plus a chance to win big.

Most importantly, if they miss the playoffs their offseason is gonna be absolute media turmoil.

My pipe dream is that Rudy becomes the fall guy and they trade him away for a bag of chips and he lands in a good situation, after which Minny realizes the problem was never Rudy and they fall into the abyss donating us top 10 picks for years.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The trade deadline has really made the team lose its soul.

 

[fishonjazz]

Why?
If next 2 seasons ( 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 ) are more tanking than winning Lauri walks out for free summer 2025.

24 months ( 2 years ) is not plenty of time and that will run out fast.
Of course Ainge can trade Lauri at some point if it looks that he's going to test 2025 UFA free-agency that way Lauri will not walk out for free.

We are talking about the next 20-30 games not the next two seasons silly.


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[Korisfani]

Resting more guys on back-to-backs, absolutely makes sense. The Jazz have done surprisingly little of it, only Mike a few times. Resting someone like Lauri on a six game roadtrip in one of the middle games against the Magic, yeah, sure.

That doesn't get you to 5-22. That doesn't get you the 5th seed in the lottery. It gets you maybe one extra loss, two max.

And why on earth would Lauri (or to a lesser extent Colin, or JC/Beasley should they stay with team) agree to sit out the rest of the season? He's gonna lose out on millions and millions and limit his options, for what? To have one Jazz pick move up from maybe the 13th pick to the 8th? That's gonna be a player that most likely won't have any major effect on the team's fortunes during the next two years he's gonna be in Utah.

Lauri had a bit of a reputation as being injury prone previously. Three straight seasons with the Bulls never played more than 50 games, then 60 games with the Cavs. Also, probably many other front offices are looking at his season now and thinking if it's a flash in the pan or sustainable. He sits out now and he's again at only 50 games and it's still a question mark if he's a "real" All-Star.

***

As we saw last night a bunch of starters being out doesn't guarantee anyone a loss or a win. Let's say the Jazz are playing at OKC and have a 60 % of winning. Then they sit out Lauri, JC, Mike and KO. Now it's maybe 38 %. You didn't go from one win to one loss suddenly. Instead you on the probabilities lost .22 wins. You have to string five (5) of those games in order to get one (1) extra loss vs. the scenario of everyone playing as usual.

 

[fishonjazz]

The FO is on the clock and we will soon find out what the roster trims will be. Lets try not to set the world on fire before that. I think we will steer towards youth minutes (coach + FO codeword agreement for "tank"), and I think if we trade or bench Conley it will help us lose more. I'm not sure if selling Clarkson is a tank move.. I sometimes feel like he is the best tank commander keeping the ball away from Lauri.

Keep this in mind however:
The "youth" lineup of Lauri, Kessler, Ochai, Sexton + whoever is not gonna finish the season with 5-25 or something. Remember that "tanking" in the traditional meaning is a firesale including your best players. We dont intend to trade our 2 best players, and Ochai/Sexton getting 25+ minutes might end up working better than expected. There is a world where we actually become better, since suddenly our perimeter defense becomes much improved and we can still score enough points to win even without the flamethrowers and Conleys assists...

I'm just hoping those who are for hardcore tanking wont be flaming the boards rest of the season if we end up not sucking well enough.

I have no problem at all if we are winning lots of games off the backs of sexton, ochai, lauri, and kessler. In fact, i think that would be ideal.


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[fishonjazz]

Yes but in order to have knee soreness there has to be knee soreness. If the player says "I'm fine" there is nothing the med staff can do.

If I was too sinister about it that was not my intention. However this year Silver gave a warning that they are monitoring this kind of stuff extra careful (because of Wemby). I trust the FO knows where the limit is, and as I said the "precautionary outs" will likely come to play. But not to the tune of Lauri missing half our remaining games (unless there is at least some legit minor injury).

Just tell the player to say they have knee soreness instead of im fine. They arent in a courtroom risking perjury or something.


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