Its Time to Tank

[YoungJefe]

We're only 2 games out of 6th and 4.5 out of 5th...

 

[Korisfani]

Last night the Mavs would've probably been a 1-2 pt dog if they had everyone (incl. Luka) playing and hadn't yet made the trade. Now they were 9pt dogs.

IF you thought that they were much, much worse than that and should've been 20pt dogs, guaranteed a loss, then surely you fleeced Vegas?

 

[fishonjazz]

If you've read a single message in this conversation, you'd know the answer. In that example just one player (Lauri) makes a massive difference, swinging a game from 2pt favorite to 2pt dog. However, that difference doesn't magically translate to a 10 game losing streak or whatever.

You take out Lauri and the dog probably still goes 3-3. You keep Lauri in and the favorite still goes 3-3. Going 1-5 is very unlikely.

So with Lauri we go 3-3 and without lauri we go 3-3 but lauri makes a massive difference in swinging games. Interesting
3-3 seems to not be a massive difference from 3-3.


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[Handlogten's Heros]

I feel like we're dancing on the head of a pin here

Again, not easily. Let's says as you put it before Lauri is difference between -2 and +2 - 55 % and 45 % (and that's likely a bit too much). The chances of going 1-5 as the favorite (with Lauri (or JC)) are ~6 %. The chances as the dog (with Lauri out) are ~13 %. Most often you'll go 3-3, no matter what.

Too much maths... no good players make no win... sorry its science.

Resting Lauri on b2bs for injury prevention etc. down the stretch, smart. Resting him for lottery purposes, very unlikely to make any difference.

There are often little dings or exhaustion that players fight through... those are the games you rest him. If he has no legitimate reason he plays.

Obviously trading all the vets + not getting back anyone decent changes things much more. But then again Jazz/DA made it quite clear in the McMahon piece that he won't make any trades for or even think about trades simply for the purpose of advancing in the lottery.

And really, what's the value between the 8-9 seed and the 10-11? Approx. zilch.

For someone who is great at math you suck at math. The difference between 8-9 and 10-11 is substantial and completely quantifiable with certainty. You have a 20-25% chance at a top 4 pick vs. 10-14% chance... its literally 2x better odds.

You can send one guy to the free throw line for one free throw and you win at $1M . You sending Jakob Poeltl or Steph Curry? I get Steph since the difference is zilch. You get Poeltl... fair deal?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So with Lauri we go 3-3 and without lauri we go 3-3 but lauri makes a massive difference in swinging games. Interesting
3-3 seems to not be a massive difference from 3-3.


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Lauri is actually a 10 point swing guy based on on/off numbers.

 

[fishonjazz]

Lauri is actually a 10 point swing guy based on on/off numbers.

But apparently 10 points isn’t significant enough to effect the outcome of games.


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[YoungJefe]

Getting to 5th gives us a 42% chance at top 4 // 10% chance at #1 overall
Getting to 6th gives us a 37% chance at top 4 / 9% chance at #1 overall

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

But apparently 10 points isn’t significant enough to effect the outcome of games.


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I picked 4 points because the way Vegas sets lines there are very few guys that are a 10 point swing player. If you tell me instead of Lauri for 32 minutes I am getting Gay and KO for an additional 32 minutes... I will tell you 10 points is not enough. In one individual sample/game anything can happen.

If we are playing an exact replica of our team in a 6 game set on a neutral floor and for 3 of those games on team is disadvantaged by not having Lauri and the same team also misses JC for 3 games I have a hard time seeing the most likely result as 3-3.

 

[Korisfani]

So with Lauri we go 3-3 and without lauri we go 3-3 but lauri makes a massive difference in swinging games. Interesting
3-3 seems to not be a massive difference from 3-3.

Maths. Hard. Me no like.

For someone who is great at math you suck at math. The difference between 8-9 and 10-11 is substantial and completely quantifiable with certainty. You have a 20-25% chance at a top 4 pick vs. 10-14% chance... its literally 2x better odds.

Yes. And it's very likely you end up with the 8-11 pick in both cases.

Lauri is actually a 10 point swing guy based on on/off numbers.

Again. If you believe that, you're surely rolling in money, because Vegas and every bettor disagrees with you. You could make millions and millions in only one season!

Luka is 12 points on/off. Add the rest that were missing. That has to be Mavs a 20pt dog. Surely you put the house on the Jazz?

 

[fishonjazz]

I picked 4 points because the way Vegas sets lines there are very few guys that are a 10 point swing player. If you tell me instead of Lauri for 32 minutes I am getting Gay and KO for an additional 32 minutes... I will tell you 10 points is not enough. In one individual sample/game anything can happen.

If we are playing an exact replica of our team in a 6 game set on a neutral floor and for 3 of those games on team is disadvantaged by not having Lauri and the same team also misses JC for 3 games I have a hard time seeing the most likely result as 3-3.

Exactly

I too think that lauri missing games would have a big effect on our win loss record.
I think he is the reason we arent at the bottom of the standings currently.


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[LogGrad98]

So with Lauri we go 3-3 and without lauri we go 3-3 but lauri makes a massive difference in swinging games. Interesting
3-3 seems to not be a massive difference from 3-3.


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It is way huger than you think. I would even go as far as to say yuge, and I don't say that lightly.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Maths. Hard. Me no like.


Yes. And it's very likely you end up with the 8-11 pick in both cases.

Yup... but guess what the upside of getting lucky is? Definitely worth losing a couple meaningless games. Give me the investment with 2x the chance at a massive return thank you.

Again. If you believe that, you're surely rolling in money, because Vegas and every bettor disagrees with you. You could make millions and millions in only one season!

Luka is 12 points on/off. Add the rest that were missing. That has to be Mavs a 20pt dog. Surely you put the house on the Jazz?

Yes I would bet the house on a line that big in a single game sample...