Its Time to Tank

[Korisfani]

Yup... but guess what the upside of getting lucky is? Definitely worth losing a couple meaningless games. Give me the investment with 2x the chance at a massive return thank you.

Let's get this straight

• Keeping Lauri out of six games increases the Jazz's chances of those two extra losses 7 %
• It's pretty much impossible to say if those two wins end up mattering, and if they're the difference between 8 and 10 seed. Someone would have to run 10 000 simulations to get an accurate number on that. But let's be extrasuper-generous and give that 40 %.
• Then a 11 % increase in the chances of getting a top 4 pick.

That adds up to 0,3 %.

The Jazz have a better chance of making the Finals this year.

The losses aren't guaranteed, easy, simple, whatever. Them mattering is not certain. Hitting the lottery: doubtful. All of those things happening: extremely improbable.

Yes I would bet the house on a line that big in a single game sample...

It's not a single game. There's a Kawhi, Jokic, PG, LeBron, Luka out pretty much every single night. Getting a 10 pt edge on Vegas every night and you can buy the team in a few years!

Franz Wagner, Mitchell Robinson and Larry Nance are starters that have about the same on / off as Lauri. Are you looking at the Knicks and thinking now they're guaranteed to lose with Robinson nursing an injury?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Let's get this straight

• Keeping Lauri out of six games increases the Jazz's chances of those two extra losses 7 %
• It's pretty much impossible to say if those two wins end up mattering, and if they're the difference between 8 and 10 seed. Someone would have to run 10 000 simulations to get an accurate number on that. But let's be extrasuper-generous and give that 40 %.
• Then a 11 % increase in the chances of getting a top 4 pick.

That adds up to 0,3 %.

The Jazz have a better chance of making the Finals this year.

The losses aren't guaranteed, easy, simple, whatever. Them mattering is not certain. Hitting the lottery: doubtful. All of those things happening: extremely improbable.


It's not a single game. There's a Kawhi, Jokic, PG, LeBron, Luka out pretty much every single night. Getting a 10 pt edge on Vegas every night and you can buy the team in a few years!

Franz Wagner, Mitchell Robinson and Larry Nance are starters that have about the same on / off as Lauri. Are you looking at the Knicks and thinking now they're guaranteed to lose with Robinson nursing an injury?

I mean there are a lot of measures that have Lauri as one of the 15-20 most impactful players in the league... but I guess if having those guys really doesn't matter all that much we don't need more of them anyway... so eff them high picks.

538 also projects the difference between the 13th best record in the league (where we are and where they project us to finish) to the 8th best record in the league to be 3 games. So I am sure a game or two won't matter. I suppose since math is undefeated I should go and bet the house we finish exactly 41-41 and win a bunch of money. I mean if Lauri misses 10 games that's like a 1 game swing at best... even though our point differential is currently less than a point.

None of it really matters because even if we triple our shot at landing a super impactful player... super impactful players don't change your record all that much. We should just trade the pick for Nance or Robinson... ya know follow the numbers.

 

[Korisfani]

I mean there are a lot of measures that have Lauri as one of the 15-20 most impactful players in the league... but I guess if having those guys really doesn't matter all that much we don't need more of them anyway... so eff them high picks.

Getting a single player that swings games by 4 pts and win probability by 10 % is the difference where the Jazz are right now and 2nd in the West. A player swinging games by 11 pts and win probability by close to 30 % is the difference between the Jazz and the Michael Jordan Bulls.

Who's the single player whose addition makes the Jazz a guaranteed dynasty?

538 also projects the difference between the 13th best record in the league (where we are and where they project us to finish) to the 8th best record in the league to be 3 games. So I am sure a game or two won't matter.

So my 40 % guess on two games being the difference between 8 and 10 was pretty much spot on. Yay me!

And as you like 538's stats, they give Lauri 6 WAR so far this season. So if Lauri had never come over and ... let's say Rudy Gay... had played all of Lauri's minutes, they estimate the Jazz would be about where the Magic are now - 5th seed in the lottery.

6 WAR in 50 games is 0.12 per game - so again, I'm pretty much spot on with my numbers. Yay! Then for the rest of the season (27 games) it's about 3 wins. That's not sitting Lauri for 6 games, it's replacing Lauri for the whole of rest of the season with Rudy effing Gay. So, is 538 completely wrong as well?

None of it really matters because even if we triple our shot at landing a super impactful player... super impactful players don't change your record all that much. We should just trade the pick for Nance or Robinson... ya know follow the numbers.

A top 4 pick in this year's draft isn't 100 % chance of a super impactful player. Most probable outcome is... RJ Barrett. Yes, definitely impactful and that's a decent pick.

And you can say TRIPLE (although wasn't it double?), but were talking about fractions of one percent.

If you just want to say that there are two outcomes, then that's your choice. Something will definitely, certainly, absolutely happen. Or it will never, ever, not a chance happen.

 

[Korisfani]

Let's say that I opened a thread arguing that...
- all we gotta do is trade for John Collins
- and then we'll go on a five game winning streak
- and then we're in with a chance at the 4th seed in the playoffs
- and now we've tripled our chances at making the Finals!!!

I'd get reminded about that statement for a decade here, right?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Getting a single player that swings games by 4 pts and win probability by 10 % is the difference where the Jazz are right now and 2nd in the West. A player swinging games by 11 pts and win probability by close to 30 % is the difference between the Jazz and the Michael Jordan Bulls.

Who's the single player whose addition makes the Jazz a guaranteed dynasty?


So my 40 % guess on two games being the difference between 8 and 10 was pretty much spot on. Yay me!

And those two games don't matter right... I mean in 2019 its the difference between drafting Ja Morant or Cam Reddish but no biggie.

And as you like 538's stats, they give Lauri 6 WAR so far this season. So if Lauri had never come over and ... let's say Rudy Gay... had played all of Lauri's minutes, they estimate the Jazz would be about where the Magic are now - 5th seed in the lottery.

6 WAR in 50 games is 0.12 per game - so again, I'm pretty much spot on with my numbers. Yay! Then for the rest of the season (27 games) it's about 3 wins. That's not sitting Lauri for 6 games, it's replacing Lauri for the whole of rest of the season with Rudy effing Gay. So, is 538 completely wrong as well?

I don't take 538 as gospel and I honestly feel like if you filled Lauri's minutes with Gay this season it costs us more than 6 games... so yeah I think its off. Teams under/over perform point differential each year and sometimes by several games. Some of these measure that capture and try to quantify the exact worth of an individual player are flawed but they do show their impact. Like Tyrese Haliburton is a 6 war guy too... his team went 2-10 without him... they were 23-20 with him. Its weird that the team underperformed by like 4+ games over that sample... I guess math doesn't work in Indiana. Using the maths you say are infallible it should have been a 1.5-2 game swing at most. Strange.

In wins Lauri averages 27.4 and 9.3 with a TS% of 71%... in losses 22.2 on 62% TS... pretty big swing. JC... his numbers are close to identical. I think maybe Lauri is important for us in winning...IDK.

A top 4 pick in this year's draft isn't 100 % chance of a super impactful player. Most probable outcome is... RJ Barrett. Yes, definitely impactful and that's a decent pick.

And you can say TRIPLE (although wasn't it double?), but were talking about fractions of one percent.

If you just want to say that there are two outcomes, then that's your choice. Something will definitely, certainly, absolutely happen. Or it will never, ever, not a chance happen.

I mean sure... the median outcome of a top 4 pick is RJ Barrett... cool... there are hits and misses. There are no guarantees in life. Since it isn't impactful we can likely get a GM to swap spots with us for a ham sandwich since it doesn't matter really. Its weird that moving back that far would cost several future firsts right? If we land top 4 the smart thing to do would be to move back because math? It's weird it almost never happens.

 

[Douchebag K]

I would be pretty pissed of we just trade beasley and vando. For me to be happy we need to trade at least one of conley or KO and never play Gay agains after the deadline.

I like conley but probably want him traded most of all just because i want to see what we have with sexton and NAW and THT. Need to clear that logjam.


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my dream is we dump Gay, trade Mike and Vando and maybe Jordan I really like Malik i hope we keep him but it's time to tank hard for the rest of the season. I love Mike but it's time to move on, give him one last shot at a ring
And us another pick

 

[Eddie Zero]

We're only 2 games out of 6th and 4.5 out of 5th...

and if the season ended today in the play in sitting 12th overall in the lottery before the tournament and with a play in win. out of the lottery.
You can convince me we could easily lose enough to slide down in the WC, missing the play in, but you cannot convince me the EC teams currently with worse records, are getting better at the deadline, even if we get worse.
There are 27 games left. 1 more before the trade deadline with the Jazz having made no moves at all.
13 of the final 27 are against worse teams, 8 of those meetings are obvious tankers. that has us being 500 still written all over it.
we are 4 games above 500 on the season against the West with 17 of 27 remaining in our conf. We are 4 games below 500 against the EC so far with 10 left and some of them tough one's and some easy one's.
It could work out where we are sitting at 11 if we try to tank a little bit, but I bet its not any better odds than 9 best case at the top picks even though it is possible.
I don't really see many teams that are currently worse than us doing anything but tanking, outside of Chicago or LAL who don't keep the pick for the most part.
If we land a spot at 6 something significantly bad happened to the Finnisher.

 

[Douchebag K]

Let's say that I opened a thread arguing that...
- all we gotta do is trade for John Collins
- and then we'll go on a five game winning streak
- and then we're in with a chance at the 4th seed in the playoffs
- and now we've tripled our chances at making the Finals!!!

I'd get reminded about that statement for a decade here, right?

yes pretty much

 

[Eddie Zero]

Im not the coach. My measurements of stats have no bearing on playing time at all silly. Maybe sextons play style isnt what hardy likes. And maybe hardy is like a lot of coaches and plays senior players over younger players. Maybe conley and clarkson know the system hardy is running better than sexton.

What makes you think he is injured or struggling with his shooting and scoring?



Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app

He isn't slashing or attacking nearly as well as he used to do for starters. Maybe he is playing that way to prevent injury again and he is fine i dont know at this point.
Whatever it is, if he is healthy we better see higher usage soon or he might as well be traded because there is no point in him being here if we are going to cap his fire

 

[Douchebag K]

and if the season ended today in the play in sitting 12th overall in the lottery before the tournament and with a play in win. out of the lottery.
You can convince me we could easily lose enough to slide down in the WC, missing the play in, but you cannot convince me the EC teams currently with worse records, are getting better at the deadline, even if we get worse.
There are 27 games left. 1 more before the trade deadline with the Jazz having made no moves at all.
13 of the final 27 are against worse teams, 8 of those meetings are obvious tankers. that has us being 500 still written all over it.
we are 4 games above 500 on the season against the West with 17 of 27 remaining in our conf. We are 4 games below 500 against the EC so far with 10 left and some of them tough one's and some easy one's.
It could work out where we are sitting at 11 if we try to tank a little bit, but I bet its not any better odds than 9 best case at the top picks even though it is possible.
I don't really see many teams that are currently worse than us doing anything but tanking, outside of Chicago or LAL who don't keep the pick for the most part.
If we land a spot at 6 something significantly bad happened to the Finnisher.

can't Lauri go off and do his 6 months military service now ?? Come back post tank for next season !

 

[Eddie Zero]

can't Lauri go off and do his 6 months military service now ?? Come back post tank for next season !

I guess, but some closer to that info think it won't work that way, and the powers that be, will accomodate him doing his service in seperated stints in offseasons.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

To win a title (an improbably positive outcome) you will need to hit on a few improbably positive scenarios... whether its getting the number 1 pick in the Tim Duncan draft or drafting Giannis with the 15th pick. If you can increase your chances of hitting the jackpot then you should. Especially when the risk is minimal. Every team that wins the title has some incredible luck along the way.

 

[Korisfani]

And those two games don't matter right... I mean in 2019 its the difference between drafting Ja Morant or Cam Reddish but no biggie.

They might. Or they might not. At 37-45 they might be the 10th seed. And at 35-47 they might be... the 10th seed. As I said and as your handy 538 stats backed up: about at 40 % chance.

And yes, there's a very slim chance it's Morant. Most likely: it's the difference between drafting Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish. How much more do you really, really, really want Jaxson Hayes?

I don't take 538 as gospel and I honestly feel like if you filled Lauri's minutes with Gay this season it costs us more than 6 games... so yeah I think its off.

So you just at random choose which 538 stats to use as your argument and completely trust them and which you don't trust at all?

Like Tyrese Haliburton is a 6 war guy too... his team went 2-10 without him... they were 23-20 with him. Its weird that the team underperformed by like 4+ games over that sample... I guess math doesn't work in Indiana. Using the maths you say are infallible it should have been a 1.5-2 game swing at most. Strange.

It really is not weird at all. It's maths. Which might be hard, but it's certainly not weird. Unless you have a mathematician fetish. Then it's super weird.

First of all, I'm not sure where the extra two losses come from, but they went 2-8 with him missing in January. Out of those 10 games 6 were away. Out of those 6 away games 4 were the Bucks, Nuggets, Grizzlies and Suns. In two of the home games they had the Bucks and the Grizzlies again. So their SOS was much, much harder than for those other 43 games. Also, even without that, outliers happen, all the time. You search for all NBA teams for all possible 10 game stretches, and you'll find teams that wildly outperformed and teams that wildly overperformed. Over time, regression to the mean. I mean, the Jazz were 10-3 for heaven's sake!

I think maybe Lauri is important for us in winning...IDK.

Absolutely he is. By far and away the most important player on the roster. All of the advanced stats and WARs and whatever back that up completely.

Alas, he's not peak Michael Jordan. Yet.

I mean sure... the median outcome of a top 4 pick is RJ Barrett... cool... there are hits and misses. There are no guarantees in life. Since it isn't impactful we can likely get a GM to swap spots with us for a ham sandwich since it doesn't matter really. Its weird that moving back that far would cost several future firsts right? If we land top 4 the smart thing to do would be to move back because math? It's weird it almost never happens.

You won't have to worry about any of that luckily, because the Jazz are not going to get a top 4 pick anywhere else but in fantasies.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

They might. Or they might not. At 37-45 they might be the 10th seed. And at 35-47 they might be... the 10th seed. As I said and as your handy 538 stats backed up: about at 40 % chance.

And yes, there's a very slim chance it's Morant. Most likely: it's the difference between drafting Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish. How much more do you really, really, really want Jaxson Hayes?


So you just at random choose which 538 stats to use as your argument and completely trust them and which you don't trust at all?

Its not that I don't trust it... I listed his rank among the most impactful players... I think its useful. If you take it a step further and calculate actual wins and losses based on a catch all stat I think you take it too far.

It really is not weird at all. It's maths. Which might be hard, but it's certainly not weird. Unless you have a mathematician fetish. Then it's super weird.

First of all, I'm not sure where the extra two losses come from, but they went 2-8 with him missing in January. Out of those 10 games 6 were away. Out of those 6 away games 4 were the Bucks, Nuggets, Grizzlies and Suns. In two of the home games they had the Bucks and the Grizzlies again. So their SOS was much, much harder than for those other 43 games. Also, even without that, outliers happen, all the time. You search for all NBA teams for all possible 10 game stretches, and you'll find teams that wildly outperformed and teams that wildly overperformed. Over time, regression to the mean. I mean, the Jazz were 10-3 for heaven's sake!

Why don't you go look again fella... they were 1-9 (I know that is not an advanced stat but that's the number)... played the Suns without CP/Booker/Cam Johnson... played the Bucks without Giannis and Middleton... so much, much harder schedule is really aggressive. So I guess with Tyrese they go 2-8 over that stretch? Maybe 0-10 was more likely?

Glad you mentioned that we were 10-3... Using the Lauri math what is our record without Lauri in that stint.... we won 2 games in OT and another 2 games by less than 3 points. Would we be 6-7 or some other number? It would be absurd to say he made a 4 game difference right? That would make him like 10x as good as prime MJ.

Absolutely he is. By far and away the most important player on the roster. All of the advanced stats and WARs and whatever back that up completely.

Alas, he's not peak Michael Jordan. Yet.


You won't have to worry about any of that luckily, because the Jazz are not going to get a top 4 pick anywhere else but in fantasies.

 

[Korisfani]

Why don't you go look again fella...

Why are you so angry?

Just say that you don't believe in maths, at all. And that you'd rather believe in miracles and the 0,05 % chance that the Jazz get Ja Morant if only they do this one small thing, which they're clearly too silly to realize.

It's fine, we're all sports fans. The belief that one day the miracle will happen is what has kept us as sports fans.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Why are you so angry?

Just say that you don't believe in maths, at all. And that you'd rather believe in miracles and the 0,05 % chance that the Jazz get Ja Morant if only they do this one small thing, which they're clearly too silly to realize.

It's fine, we're all sports fans. The belief that one day the miracle will happen is what has kept us as sports fans.

Not angry... but if you are going to be mr. mathematician then maybe get the basics correct. You wouldn't even have to take off your shoes to get that one right. I definitely believe in math... I also believe the math doesn't always work on court. You can remove key components like Lauri and Tyrese and the baseline of the team moves more dramatically than a catch all stat can compute. Math is only one part of how I view the game.

I believe in math so much that I would like to bend some of that math in our favor.

 

[Korisfani]

Not angry... but if you are going to be mr. mathematician then maybe get the basics correct.

You started this out by saying they went 2-10. I wouldn't be so mad if I had just made the same mistake.

I also believe the math doesn't always work on court.

So you don't believe in math. Math always works. There isn't an alternative maths for people who like to do their own research.

Our assumptions can be wrong. But those models have been created by some of the most brilliant people based on all available data. And still, outliers and black swans happen.

 

[Step-Back Hook]

You started this out by saying they went 2-10. I wouldn't be so mad if I had just made the same mistake.

So you don't believe in math. Math always works. There isn't an alternative maths for people who like to do their own research.

Our assumptions can be wrong. But those models have been created by some of the most brilliant people based on all available data. And still, outliers and black swans happen.

Math is just a tool not the answer. It works as a tool. with something like sports where people work together and affect to each other in each team - the math can not be applied more as some guidance. If math always works I guess when Jim Boylen banned mid-range shooting from Lauri and the whole Bulls team their shooting should have become more effective. But bc math does not work like that in sports teams it just made them worse.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You started this out by saying they went 2-10. I wouldn't be so mad if I had just made the same mistake.

2-10 without Halliburton this season... math is easier than reading.

So you don't believe in math. Math always works. There isn't an alternative maths for people who like to do their own research.

Our assumptions can be wrong. But those models have been created by some of the most brilliant people based on all available data. And still, outliers and black swans happen.

Math doesn't always work on court... because of outliers, black swans, etc. I am aware the models are created by geniuses... does not mean the spreadsheet will mirror real life.

You do you... I'm going to go on and believe that if Lauri missed 6 games our record would almost surely be worse than our record in those 6 games if he had played. If there was a casino and a reality where that could happen I would bet large sums of money on it.

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

I think some people here just look at the data and think we are much better than we really are. We are 27-28 including a 10-3 at start. Without this crazy strat where verebody were playing at 110% we are 17-25, definitly a lottery team. We play bad last 2 games and loose against Dallas with his totally depleted teams.
Thinking that we can go for a 6-21 to ended the season is possible. Specially if we trade one or 2 more guys.

And i still don't see the interest to end 10th and loosing in play in. If we were good enough to ended 5 or 6 and try to make some noise in PO, i will go for it as this is a good experience for the young people here but we are not. Lakers, Minny, GSW will make a run, i'm not sure we are better than Portland or OKC.

We have already a good season, lot of fun seeing this team play well and with the good attitude. I will survive if we suck the last 27 if it give us the opportunity to get a top 4-8 picks.