Its Time to Tank

[Korisfani]

And those two games don't matter right... I mean in 2019 its the difference between drafting Ja Morant or Cam Reddish but no biggie.

They might. Or they might not. At 37-45 they might be the 10th seed. And at 35-47 they might be... the 10th seed. As I said and as your handy 538 stats backed up: about at 40 % chance.

And yes, there's a very slim chance it's Morant. Most likely: it's the difference between drafting Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish. How much more do you really, really, really want Jaxson Hayes?

I don't take 538 as gospel and I honestly feel like if you filled Lauri's minutes with Gay this season it costs us more than 6 games... so yeah I think its off.

So you just at random choose which 538 stats to use as your argument and completely trust them and which you don't trust at all?

Like Tyrese Haliburton is a 6 war guy too... his team went 2-10 without him... they were 23-20 with him. Its weird that the team underperformed by like 4+ games over that sample... I guess math doesn't work in Indiana. Using the maths you say are infallible it should have been a 1.5-2 game swing at most. Strange.

It really is not weird at all. It's maths. Which might be hard, but it's certainly not weird. Unless you have a mathematician fetish. Then it's super weird.

First of all, I'm not sure where the extra two losses come from, but they went 2-8 with him missing in January. Out of those 10 games 6 were away. Out of those 6 away games 4 were the Bucks, Nuggets, Grizzlies and Suns. In two of the home games they had the Bucks and the Grizzlies again. So their SOS was much, much harder than for those other 43 games. Also, even without that, outliers happen, all the time. You search for all NBA teams for all possible 10 game stretches, and you'll find teams that wildly outperformed and teams that wildly overperformed. Over time, regression to the mean. I mean, the Jazz were 10-3 for heaven's sake!

I think maybe Lauri is important for us in winning...IDK.

Absolutely he is. By far and away the most important player on the roster. All of the advanced stats and WARs and whatever back that up completely.

Alas, he's not peak Michael Jordan. Yet.

I mean sure... the median outcome of a top 4 pick is RJ Barrett... cool... there are hits and misses. There are no guarantees in life. Since it isn't impactful we can likely get a GM to swap spots with us for a ham sandwich since it doesn't matter really. Its weird that moving back that far would cost several future firsts right? If we land top 4 the smart thing to do would be to move back because math? It's weird it almost never happens.

You won't have to worry about any of that luckily, because the Jazz are not going to get a top 4 pick anywhere else but in fantasies.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

They might. Or they might not. At 37-45 they might be the 10th seed. And at 35-47 they might be... the 10th seed. As I said and as your handy 538 stats backed up: about at 40 % chance.

And yes, there's a very slim chance it's Morant. Most likely: it's the difference between drafting Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish. How much more do you really, really, really want Jaxson Hayes?


So you just at random choose which 538 stats to use as your argument and completely trust them and which you don't trust at all?

Its not that I don't trust it... I listed his rank among the most impactful players... I think its useful. If you take it a step further and calculate actual wins and losses based on a catch all stat I think you take it too far.

It really is not weird at all. It's maths. Which might be hard, but it's certainly not weird. Unless you have a mathematician fetish. Then it's super weird.

First of all, I'm not sure where the extra two losses come from, but they went 2-8 with him missing in January. Out of those 10 games 6 were away. Out of those 6 away games 4 were the Bucks, Nuggets, Grizzlies and Suns. In two of the home games they had the Bucks and the Grizzlies again. So their SOS was much, much harder than for those other 43 games. Also, even without that, outliers happen, all the time. You search for all NBA teams for all possible 10 game stretches, and you'll find teams that wildly outperformed and teams that wildly overperformed. Over time, regression to the mean. I mean, the Jazz were 10-3 for heaven's sake!

Why don't you go look again fella... they were 1-9 (I know that is not an advanced stat but that's the number)... played the Suns without CP/Booker/Cam Johnson... played the Bucks without Giannis and Middleton... so much, much harder schedule is really aggressive. So I guess with Tyrese they go 2-8 over that stretch? Maybe 0-10 was more likely?

Glad you mentioned that we were 10-3... Using the Lauri math what is our record without Lauri in that stint.... we won 2 games in OT and another 2 games by less than 3 points. Would we be 6-7 or some other number? It would be absurd to say he made a 4 game difference right? That would make him like 10x as good as prime MJ.

Absolutely he is. By far and away the most important player on the roster. All of the advanced stats and WARs and whatever back that up completely.

Alas, he's not peak Michael Jordan. Yet.


You won't have to worry about any of that luckily, because the Jazz are not going to get a top 4 pick anywhere else but in fantasies.

 

[Korisfani]

Why don't you go look again fella...

Why are you so angry?

Just say that you don't believe in maths, at all. And that you'd rather believe in miracles and the 0,05 % chance that the Jazz get Ja Morant if only they do this one small thing, which they're clearly too silly to realize.

It's fine, we're all sports fans. The belief that one day the miracle will happen is what has kept us as sports fans.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Why are you so angry?

Just say that you don't believe in maths, at all. And that you'd rather believe in miracles and the 0,05 % chance that the Jazz get Ja Morant if only they do this one small thing, which they're clearly too silly to realize.

It's fine, we're all sports fans. The belief that one day the miracle will happen is what has kept us as sports fans.

Not angry... but if you are going to be mr. mathematician then maybe get the basics correct. You wouldn't even have to take off your shoes to get that one right. I definitely believe in math... I also believe the math doesn't always work on court. You can remove key components like Lauri and Tyrese and the baseline of the team moves more dramatically than a catch all stat can compute. Math is only one part of how I view the game.

I believe in math so much that I would like to bend some of that math in our favor.

 

[Korisfani]

Not angry... but if you are going to be mr. mathematician then maybe get the basics correct.

You started this out by saying they went 2-10. I wouldn't be so mad if I had just made the same mistake.

I also believe the math doesn't always work on court.

So you don't believe in math. Math always works. There isn't an alternative maths for people who like to do their own research.

Our assumptions can be wrong. But those models have been created by some of the most brilliant people based on all available data. And still, outliers and black swans happen.

 

[Step-Back Hook]

You started this out by saying they went 2-10. I wouldn't be so mad if I had just made the same mistake.

So you don't believe in math. Math always works. There isn't an alternative maths for people who like to do their own research.

Our assumptions can be wrong. But those models have been created by some of the most brilliant people based on all available data. And still, outliers and black swans happen.

Math is just a tool not the answer. It works as a tool. with something like sports where people work together and affect to each other in each team - the math can not be applied more as some guidance. If math always works I guess when Jim Boylen banned mid-range shooting from Lauri and the whole Bulls team their shooting should have become more effective. But bc math does not work like that in sports teams it just made them worse.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You started this out by saying they went 2-10. I wouldn't be so mad if I had just made the same mistake.

2-10 without Halliburton this season... math is easier than reading.

So you don't believe in math. Math always works. There isn't an alternative maths for people who like to do their own research.

Our assumptions can be wrong. But those models have been created by some of the most brilliant people based on all available data. And still, outliers and black swans happen.

Math doesn't always work on court... because of outliers, black swans, etc. I am aware the models are created by geniuses... does not mean the spreadsheet will mirror real life.

You do you... I'm going to go on and believe that if Lauri missed 6 games our record would almost surely be worse than our record in those 6 games if he had played. If there was a casino and a reality where that could happen I would bet large sums of money on it.

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

I think some people here just look at the data and think we are much better than we really are. We are 27-28 including a 10-3 at start. Without this crazy strat where verebody were playing at 110% we are 17-25, definitly a lottery team. We play bad last 2 games and loose against Dallas with his totally depleted teams.
Thinking that we can go for a 6-21 to ended the season is possible. Specially if we trade one or 2 more guys.

And i still don't see the interest to end 10th and loosing in play in. If we were good enough to ended 5 or 6 and try to make some noise in PO, i will go for it as this is a good experience for the young people here but we are not. Lakers, Minny, GSW will make a run, i'm not sure we are better than Portland or OKC.

We have already a good season, lot of fun seeing this team play well and with the good attitude. I will survive if we suck the last 27 if it give us the opportunity to get a top 4-8 picks.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Also some geniuses in Vegas decided we were going to win what like 23 games... and two morons on here like me and @Elizah Huge told everyone that was free money. Look we are still morons and they are still geniuses by my model kicked their model in the nards.

 

[YoungJefe]

If we land a spot at 6 something significantly bad happened to the Finnisher.

Or we sold off Conley, Clarkson, Beasley, Vanderbilt, and Olynyk.

 

[Korisfani]

We are 27-28 including a 10-3 at start. Without this crazy strat where verebody were playing at 110% we are 17-25, definitly a lottery team.

Every team has a "crazy" streak.

The Jazz's nearest competitors have had these stretches this season:
OKC 8-3
Blazers 9-3
Lakers 8-2
Timberwolves 11-4
Pelicans 12-2

You take out those stretches when each of them were playing "110 %", they're all guaranteed lottery teams. Most of them are about 17-25 without those stretches.

This current pre-deadline Jazz are a .500 team, just like the Blazers, just like the T-wolves, just like OKC. That can of course change quickly with big trades.

And i still don't see the interest to end 10th and loosing in play in.

I don't think there's a person on this planet that has interest in that.

 

[Eddie Zero]

Or we sold off Conley, Clarkson, Beasley, Vanderbilt, and Olynyk.

wanna bet?