Jackpotting Around -Tony Jones Edition

[Handlogten's Heros]

Think if you were a professional real estate investor and knew the market was going to double in two years... and you pass on a prime piece of RE under contract for 5/70M and then you get the same piece of RE for 4/64 and if things go well you lose one year of upside. Like... you might get fired over a deal like that. Especially if you botched the negotiations twice.

The market conditions were firm. It was free money...

 

[KqWIN]

Maybe... a few guys have signed in that window. Naz Reid is the one I can think of but pretty sure there are a couple others. If it happens its likely because we were the best offer out there and the terms are acceptable.

If I was guessing... I think its like a 50% chance he is back. 35% chance he gets traded (sign and trade is very much on the radar imo) and 15% chance he tells the Jazz to eff off and signs a deal so big with like 3+1 language that the Jazz are worried it isn't as asset.

I'm sure in their minds they think he could get squeezed but I think that is absolutely misreading the market in a way that is comical for a "professional". Last year's FA market/landscape is wildly different than this summers market. Walker a much easier fit than Giddey and JK (who just actually isn't good lol).

Indiana with a Toppin/contracts plus a first sign and trade is totally reasonable. Or a double sign and trade with Mathurin and maybe seconds or a protected first... or Jarace Walker (meh).

Lakers is tricky with all the balls in the air but I could see them offering a first if it gets them terms they like rather than making a toxic offer. I could also see the Lakers making an offer this year so that they have the low capholds of AR and WK and can add other stuff in FA and then retain those guys but I haven't worked out all that math. They might need us to eat Vanderbilt's deal in that scenario.

I'd be willing to bet that Naz already knew what other offers he had. The window after the season where players can only tank to the incumbent team doesn't really exist. I don't disagree that the Jazz may have misjudged their market, I'm just saying the Jazz have already made their bed. The window to get in before other teams could make an offer has already passed.

Sign and trades are just very difficult to execute CBA wise. Could happen, but you need a very specific cap situation with a perfect sequence of events as well. Maybe IND is that situation and it is made easier that the Jazz have cap room. You've talked me into it being more likely than I initially thought, but I'm not counting on it. It's more likely the Jazz hardball Kessler/match whatever comes because IND themselves cannot sign WK to an offer sheet. IND would have to come with some serious trade assets and Kessler would have to only want IND/have no other offers.

 

[rippimpc]

Its a legit question but I think the reason people don't consider it is there are other choices in the real world... like resting Lauri. In a scenario where its one or the other I can see someone going either direction and I would likely lean towards moving Lauri.

Highest upside scenario is keep Lauri, win lotto, get Peterson. Maybe Ainge Loves to gamble. Not sure what expected value is on that roll tho

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'd be willing to bet that Naz already knew what other offers he had. The window after the season where players can only tank to the incumbent team doesn't really exist. I don't disagree that the Jazz may have misjudged their market, I'm just saying the Jazz have already made their bed. The window to get in before other teams could make an offer has already passed.

I guess from a human relationship level that its important to really try in this window. I agree his reps will know what's out there (for the most part) so they will have an advantage.

Sign and trades are just very difficult to execute CBA wise. Could happen, but you need a very specific cap situation with a perfect sequence of events as well. Maybe IND is that situation and it is made easier that the Jazz have cap room. You've talked me into it being more likely than I initially thought, but I'm not counting on it. It's more likely the Jazz hardball Kessler/match whatever comes because IND themselves cannot sign WK to an offer sheet. IND would have to come with some serious trade assets and Kessler would have to only want IND/have no other offers.

Indiana is the only place I think we get something real. They have enough contracts. The other scenarios may be just like a peace offering to get the certainty that we won't match something in the reasonable realm.

Derozan was a sign and trade that got a pick... Lauri (but that's a ways back), Sexton....

I think its more likely he gets an offer from Washington or LA in the 30-35M range that they hope we don't match... then we match... and it either works or its a marriage of convenience until he is moved in the season.

Side note... the Ainges just saying "we don't value centers" is stupid.

 

[jom2003]

I think they had a terrible cap guy in there. They had a few blunders that whoever that person was should share the blame with DL.

I think the Udoka pick may have been out of spite lol. Like eff you guys I'm out anyway. They should have and could override him if they wanted to. Bane or McDaniels would have been huge.

Doke pick is just DL being DL lol. The guy would absolutely lose his **** when you whisper the BaCkUp CEnTer in his ears. It's not even funny. Red flag should've already been raised when he traded up to select Tony Bradley when both Josh Hart and Derrick White were still on the board.

What's really funny is that for a guy who's eagerly obsessed with the BAcKuP CeNTeR, he's absolutely horrible at picking one, as both Bradley and Doke weren't even the best centers available at the time. Thomas Bryant, Paul Reed, Nick Richards, Xavier Tillman and worse, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Someone should've saw this and stopped DL long ago so we don't have to tank so hard this year just to keep our pick out of the hands of OKC.

 

[KqWIN]

I guess from a human relationship level that its important to really try in this window. I agree his reps will know what's out there (for the most part) so they will have an advantage.

I just don't think this window really exists. I believe that as much as I don't believe that contracts are negotiated and agreed upon 1 minute into the window. If WK does agree to contract during this period it will have meant that he already explored other options. And that's what I mean by "cope". There's really nothing the Jazz can do themselves to change the situation besides threatening teams to match (which could go either direction) or offering more than opposing teams.

Indiana is the only place I think we get something real. They have enough contracts. The other scenarios may be just like a peace offering to get the certainty that we won't match something in the reasonable realm.

Derozan was a sign and trade that got a pick... Lauri (but that's a ways back), Sexton....

I think its more likely he gets an offer from Washington or LA in the 30-35M range that they hope we don't match... then we match... and it either works or its a marriage of convenience until he is moved in the season.

Side note... the Ainges just saying "we don't value centers" is stupid.

If IND S&T is in play, it pretty much means the Jazz were successful in squeezing WK. So in that case, I think they just match whatever/sign him to a lower contract. But maybe IND offers up a package that's more appealing than having Kessler on his squeezed contract. Not impossible.

 

[KqWIN]

Once again: not trading Lauri at the 22-23 deadline was absolutely a fireable offense. That one decision set this franchise back like five years. It made zero sense then and it makes zero sense now.

Had Ainge sold (super) high on him, Lauri would've brought back an unbelievable haul of rebuild assets and all this tanking crap could already be over and done with.

Instead, they've wasted his prime, slowed the rebuild to a crawl, and looked like aimless morons.

I actually found Ainge's left behind at the Best Buy parking lot. Here's what they said:

The "bigger picture" is a fantasy. But I care about if it prevents us from trying to win in the short term. I'm a reality-based GM. There are only wins and losses. Wins are good, losses are bad. It's not complicated.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I still think the Udoka pick wasnt that bad on paper. The dude was a monster his last year at Kansas and he fit the system perfectly. He was absolutely massive and had a 40'' vertical (minus a few inches because he probably cheated the standing reach) It just seemed like he didnt really like basketball at all. No idea how much of that came through in the interview process. Did they just ignore it and draft him on his advanced stats/crazy tools?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

From a value perspective it seems like a huge mistake to prefer keeping Lauri and losing the pick over trading Lauri and keeping the pick, unless you don’t think you can get equal value for Lauri.

No one wants to be in a rebuild for another 3-4 years.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I just don't think this window really exists. I believe that as much as I don't believe that contracts are negotiated and agreed upon 1 minute into the window. If WK does agree to contract during this period it will have meant that he already explored other options. And that's what I mean by "cope". There's really nothing the Jazz can do themselves to change the situation besides threatening teams to match (which could go either direction) or offering more than opposing teams.



If IND S&T is in play, it pretty much means the Jazz were successful in squeezing WK. So in that case, I think they just match whatever/sign him to a lower contract. But maybe IND offers up a package that's more appealing than having Kessler on his squeezed contract. Not impossible.

IDK if it means the squeeze worked. I could see Walker taking a couple mill less from Indy to avoid Bkn and Wizards. Winning is important to him. But agree to your larger point... depends on if they want Walk or the Indy stuff more.

I think they were willing to move him for the LA package late in the offseason and a deal fell through for some reason. Which is part of this convo. Maybe LA offers up the pick and they just avoid the whole thing.

IDK... it was just a weird way to do business.

 

[rippimpc]

No one wants to be in a rebuild for another 3-4 years.

What’s your view on a Lauri rebuild? Do you think it can contend?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I still think the Udoka pick wasnt that bad on paper. The dude was a monster his last year at Kansas and he fit the system perfectly. He was absolutely massive and had a 40'' vertical (minus a few inches because he probably cheated the standing reach) It just seemed like he didnt really like basketball at all. No idea how much of that came through in the interview process. Did they just ignore it and draft him on his advanced stats/crazy tools?

It was a tragic pick for a lot of reasons. Our highest paid player was a center and the Favs smoke had already started. Doke wouldn't see the court in a meaningful way as they had like $50M in salary in front of him. He was already a senior. He wasn't projected to go that high. They could have traded back again if they were hellbent on getting him. They barely dipped their toes in the tax so every dollar mattered. It was a comedy of errors.