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Lakers-Jazz Trade

Handlogten's Heros said:
And here is the secret... you only need one or two of those picks to jump up and you are gold... you also only need to hit on one or two of those when they land in the 20s (and the chances of finding something starter quality or above are actually over 20%).

This isn't lotto ticket type investing.
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I personally can’t wait until we make the playoffs and get a lottery pick in the same year.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
And here is the secret... you only need one or two of those picks to jump up and you are gold... you also only need to hit on one or two of those when they land in the 20s (and the chances of finding something starter quality or above are actually over 20%).

This isn't lotto ticket type investing.
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Actually, this is what I'd like to know more about (I know some people have done these calculations, but I don't have immediate access to them): how to rate one kind of low-probability outcome against another.

Let's say you have the choice of two-top 20 protected first rounders from the Suns this year and next, or a single Suns unprotected pick this year. Would you find it better to bet on the one unprotected pick or the two protected picks? How would you weigh something like that?
 
idiot said:
Actually, this is what I'd like to know more about (I know some people have done these calculations, but I don't have immediate access to them): how to rate one kind of low-probability outcome against another.

Let's say you have the choice of two-top 20 protected first rounders from the Suns this year and next, or a single Suns unprotected pick this year. Would you find it better to bet on the one unprotected pick or the two protected picks? How would you weigh something like that?
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I think it also might depend on the situation... In our situation we don't need volume... so I'd place a premium on picks that have a chance to be higher in the draft.

I don't know if you can fully map all this out with math... but it would essentially be looking at the team's chances of landing in the lotto this year and the difference in the quality of picks between a late lotto pick and a pick in the mid 20s. I think it would come out that the value of two picks in the 20s is going to have the most aggregate value.
 
With Phoenix and Miami one injury to Booker or Butler and they drop in the standings dramatically. Even getting their pick if it landed in the teens is still amazing.
 
Elizah Huge said:
With Phoenix and Miami one injury to Booker or Butler and they drop in the standings dramatically. Even getting their pick if it landed in the teens is still amazing.
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I would also attempt to do the trade you outlined and get the Phoenix 24 pick and Miami 23 pick. The East will be a bloodbath this year and I could see Miami ending up in the play in if Jimmy/Kyle can't stay healthy.
 
The thing that stands out with the Heat is that they essentially can’t protect their ‘23 pick and going for a title simultaneously. And they have a terrible contract on the books. And their off-season was not great.
 
Elizah Huge said:
The odds of the Suns or Heat having an injury that affects their record is the same as buying a lottery ticket. Peak JazzFanz logic.
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Both the Suns and Heat also have stars but not megastars... so with teams like Denver or Milwaukee... if Jokic or Giannis are healthy they will be top 6. With the Suns or Heat I am not sure Booker or Jimmy could carry them alone if they deal with multiple injuries.

A deep well balanced team like the Clips just missed the playoffs. The East is a nightmare.

Heat
Celtics
Bucks
76ers
Raps
Nets
Cavs
Hawks
Bulls

3 of those teams will be outside the top 6


Suns
Grizz
Warriors
Mavs
Nuggets
Wolves
Clips
Pelicans

2 of those teams will be out of the top 6
 
A wrinkle that might be worth exploring is if the Jazz could later trade Russ for other garbage such that he either has an actual chance to play or is bought out and can return to the Lakers. If there were any way to coordinate that in advance, maybe it’s a tactic to get them past the finish line.

Hayward has been a much-discussed candidate. Would be fine just taking back our 2nd they own (that could practically be a late 1st) or a project that’s not gone well like Bouknight or Kai Jones.
 
Bodhi said:
One of the best parts about all these threads lately is all the elaborate ways we trade every single player we got from the Don/Rudy trades, along with the rest of the roster.

78 1st round picks and not one actual human to wear a jersey. Keep being authentically you, Jazzfanzzzz.
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I'd trade you too if I could find a way to get you into the trade machine.
 
infection said:
A couple thoughts…

- We gave away leverage in the Beverley deal.

- If they’re offering a first and a swap, then give them their matching salary and then we’ll send the other guys elsewhere.
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Just want to reiterate how bad that Beverley deal was again. It is honestly frustrating considering how well we did on our two huge moves to just be sloppy around the edges with a trade like that.
 
Let’s get Westbrook and then do @NUMBERICA’s trade where we swap him to Charlotte for Hayward and our second rounder back. Then we re-route Hayward to NYK for Fournier and Rose and draft capital.
 
infection said:
A couple thoughts…

- We gave away leverage in the Beverley deal.

- If they’re offering a first and a swap, then give them their matching salary and then we’ll send the other guys elsewhere.
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I would do 1 pick and two swaps. Heck, I would do three swaps in a row (make them top 1 protected) and call it good. I know swaps are risky and hard to trade as an asset in the far future but if you are confident that the Lakers will be horrible then it is probably the best bet for a swap there is.
 
I doubt a deal gets done. I don't think the Lakers will budge on including a second 1st round pick, and I don't think the Jazz do the deal for anything less than two 1sts. I bet Bogey gets shipped to another team for a 1st.
 
I think the Jazz cave to the Lakers for that 1 pick.

They can deal Bogey to another team for a late 2023, but why?

If there is an opportunity to stockpile later picks then do it. We dont need draft picks, we need far off trade assets we can use to get a star in a trade.
 
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